Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Final Tournament Results - 2011

Below is the final tally of conference results for the 2011 NCAA Tournament:

Expected RecordActual Record% of Wins Expected
Colonial3.2 - 5.86-3188%
Pac 104.1 - 4.95-4122%
A102.7 - 3.33-3111%
ACC7.7 - 4.38-4104%
SEC7.1 - 4.97-599%
Big East14.4 - 8.613-1090%
Big Ten8.3 - 5.77-784%
Mountain West4.8 - 2.24-383%
Big 127.0 - 3.05-571%
CUSA0.8 - 1.20-20%

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Tournament Summary - Chamionship Game is Set

Well, the championship game is set and it is time to once again evaluate each of the multi-bid conferences.

Here are my estimates based on the matchup combinations we saw Saturday:

3 (Connecticut) vs 4 (Kentucky) - 3 wins 50% of the time
8 (Butler) vs 11 (Virginia Commonwealth) - 8 wins 60% of the time

After applying those numbers to Sunday's games, we get the following results:

Expected RecordActual Record% of Wins Expected
Colonial3.2 - 5.86-3188%
Pac 104.1 - 4.95-4122%
A102.7 - 3.33-3111%
ACC7.7 - 4.38-4104%
SEC7.1 - 4.97-599%
Big East13.7 - 8.312-1088%
Big Ten8.3 - 5.77-784%
Mountain West4.8 - 2.24-383%
Big 127.0 - 3.05-571%
CUSA0.8 - 1.20-20%


Once again, congrats to VCU and the Colonial.  This year's winner won in a landslide.  Don't forget Old Dominion, who lost in the first round to a decent 8 seed... Butler.  The CAA was strong this year.

Big 12, well, thanks for showing up.  Given your seedings and your opponents, your 5-5 record was pretty bad.  To be honest, I know there have been worse performances by a conference in recent years, but as for the 2011 Tournament, the Big 12 gets my vote for "Biggest Disappointment".