There were a handful of games last night, but no bubble teams fell below or rose above the cut... just a handful of teams whose percentage changed a bit.
Stay tuned tonight for a Full Bracket update with all 68 teams seeded. Then, starting Saturday, we will begin to see some auto-bids handed out.
Edit: Since originally making this post, I have decided to tweak Colorado and Nebraska's chances. Nebraska has been horrible on the road, and I think they will lose at Colorado tomorrow night. Originally, I had given this game closer to a 60/40 chance of a Colorado victory, but now, I'm going to make it 80/20. This means Colorado's chances of an atlarge bid have gone up and Nebraska's have gone down. Both are still on the wrong side of the bubble at the moment and will need to do some damage in the Big 12 Tournament.
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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (4):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
CUSA (1 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Pac 10: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 10 + 37 = 51
Fighting For #1 Seeds (7):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (14):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (13):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Kansas State, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNLV, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (17 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Georgia - 90%
Gonzaga - 90%
Florida State - 85%
UAB - 85%
Marquette - 80%
Utah State - 80%
Illinois - 75%
Michigan State - 75%
Butler - 65%
Boston College - 55%
St. Mary’s - 55%
Richmond - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Michigan - 45%
Washington State - 40%
Alabama - 30%
Missouri State - 25%
----- CUT LINE -----
Clemson - 25%
Baylor - 20%
Colorado State - 20%
Colorado - 15%
Nebraska - 15%
Cleveland State - 10%
Memphis - 10%
Marshall - 5%
Southern Mississippi - 5%
USC - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Harvard (19-5, RPI 43) - Without a conference tourney, they can't afford another loss
Princeton (21-5, RPI 49) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Wichita State (22-7, RPI 50) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 90
Central Florida (18-9, RPI 53) - Started 13-0, but are 5-9 since then
Oakland (21-9, RPI 54) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
Belmont (28-4, RPI 55) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Oklahoma State (18-11, RPI 56) - Currently 6-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Penn State (15-13, RPI 59) - 13 losses including a home loss to Maine is too much to overcome
Drexel (20-9, RPI 61) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
UTEP (21-8, RPI 62) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, RPI 65) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 50
Minnesota (17-12, RPI 66) - Has now lost 8 of their last 9 games
California (16-13, RPI 67) - Not enough big wins to counter a 14th loss
Miami FL (18-12, RPI 69) - Currently 5-9 in the ACC
Friday, March 4, 2011
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Team of the Day - Missouri State - 25% Chance
Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes. I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid. If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.
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Missouri State has been here before. Waiting. Anxious. Hoping.
The Bears have the the honor (if you want to call it that) of holding 3 of the 5 best RPIs ever to miss out on the NCAA tournament. They were last invited in 1999, where they made it all the way to the Sweet 16. Since then, they have had only heartbreak. In 2000, they were RPI 34, but got left out. In 2006, they were on the receiving end of the all time biggest snub. Their RPI was 21, but they were left out once again. In 2007, the Bears thought that maybe the 3rd time was the charm. Instead, it was more of the same. They finished 36th in the RPI, and once again got sent to the NIT.
This year, Missouri State has set themselves up for another nailbiter on Selection Sunday. Their RPI currently sits at 40 as they enter the MVC Tournament as the #1 seed for the first time ever. At 23-7 overall and 15-3 in the MVC (the 14th rated conference this year), it seems like all the numbers point to being on the bubble. MSU is only 2-4 vs the top 100, but they own 2 more victories over teams in the 101-110 range.
Missouri State's hopes for an atlarge bid are largely due to the expanded field of 68. Without many quality wins, the Bears have to hope that a championship game appearance in the MVC Tournament and a 25 win season will impress the committee. Obviously, they could do themselves a favor and earn the automatic bid, but with a potential schedule including both Creighton and Wichita State, it won't be an easy task.
Likely Schedule in MVC Tournament:
1st Round: Southern Illinois (12-18, RPI 211)
2nd Round: Creighton (18-13, RPI 133)
Championship: Wichita State (22-7, RPI 50)
Estimated RPI:
24 - Win the Tournament
34 - Championship Game Appearance
44 - Semi-Finals Appearance
What they need:
Missouri State needs to make it to the championship game if they want a shot at an atlarge bid. With their lack of quality wins, an RPI in the 40s just won't cut it. At that point, there are 2 possibilities. If Wichita State is their opponent, they may be able to handle a loss. A loss to anyone else and an NIT invite will be almost certain. I will give them a 85% chance on making the semis, a 50% chance of making the finals, and then a 40% chance that they meet WSU in the finals. At that point, I think it is 50/50 whether they win. Throw in a small chance that they lose but still get an invite, and you have a 25% chance of being atlarge worthy come Selection Sunday. Unfortunately for the Bears, if they lose in the MVC Tournament, they will likely face the same sad outcome that they have encountered many times in recent years.
Summary:
Missouri State better win the MVC Tournament or else they will be spending another axious Selection Sunday.
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Missouri State has been here before. Waiting. Anxious. Hoping.
The Bears have the the honor (if you want to call it that) of holding 3 of the 5 best RPIs ever to miss out on the NCAA tournament. They were last invited in 1999, where they made it all the way to the Sweet 16. Since then, they have had only heartbreak. In 2000, they were RPI 34, but got left out. In 2006, they were on the receiving end of the all time biggest snub. Their RPI was 21, but they were left out once again. In 2007, the Bears thought that maybe the 3rd time was the charm. Instead, it was more of the same. They finished 36th in the RPI, and once again got sent to the NIT.
This year, Missouri State has set themselves up for another nailbiter on Selection Sunday. Their RPI currently sits at 40 as they enter the MVC Tournament as the #1 seed for the first time ever. At 23-7 overall and 15-3 in the MVC (the 14th rated conference this year), it seems like all the numbers point to being on the bubble. MSU is only 2-4 vs the top 100, but they own 2 more victories over teams in the 101-110 range.
Missouri State's hopes for an atlarge bid are largely due to the expanded field of 68. Without many quality wins, the Bears have to hope that a championship game appearance in the MVC Tournament and a 25 win season will impress the committee. Obviously, they could do themselves a favor and earn the automatic bid, but with a potential schedule including both Creighton and Wichita State, it won't be an easy task.
Likely Schedule in MVC Tournament:
1st Round: Southern Illinois (12-18, RPI 211)
2nd Round: Creighton (18-13, RPI 133)
Championship: Wichita State (22-7, RPI 50)
Estimated RPI:
24 - Win the Tournament
34 - Championship Game Appearance
44 - Semi-Finals Appearance
What they need:
Missouri State needs to make it to the championship game if they want a shot at an atlarge bid. With their lack of quality wins, an RPI in the 40s just won't cut it. At that point, there are 2 possibilities. If Wichita State is their opponent, they may be able to handle a loss. A loss to anyone else and an NIT invite will be almost certain. I will give them a 85% chance on making the semis, a 50% chance of making the finals, and then a 40% chance that they meet WSU in the finals. At that point, I think it is 50/50 whether they win. Throw in a small chance that they lose but still get an invite, and you have a 25% chance of being atlarge worthy come Selection Sunday. Unfortunately for the Bears, if they lose in the MVC Tournament, they will likely face the same sad outcome that they have encountered many times in recent years.
Summary:
Missouri State better win the MVC Tournament or else they will be spending another axious Selection Sunday.
A Quick Note About The "Cut Line"
If you are mathematically inclined, you may have noticed that my percentages don't appear to add up. In other words, the combined chances of all the teams listed above the cut makes it likely that 5 or 6 of them won't end up with atlarge bids. On the other hand, the combined chances of all the teams listed below the cut makes it likely that only 1 or 2 of them will receive atlarge bids. So, what gives? Are my percentages generally too low? Let me explain...
My cut line is based on absolutely no "bid stealing" in conference tournaments. This means I'm not planning on Maryland winning the ACC tourney. In reality, there is a good chance that a few bids are "stolen" this way, meaning the cut would effectively move up one spot. By Selection Sunday, we may see the cut move up 1-4 spots, meaning even if my bubble order stays the same, some of the teams above the cut right now might not finish above the cut.
There is also one more reason for my method. Let's use Utah State as an example. They probably have a 90% chance of winning out and earning the auto-bid from the WAC. Bubble teams will be strongly rooting for this to happen. Now imagine that the WAC didn't get an auto bid. What would Utah State's chances be of receiving an atlarge bid then? I think they would be good, maybe around 80-85%, but there would be no guarantee that they would receive an atlarge bid. Now, back to reality. My point is that Utah State might possibly win the auto-bid without an "atlarge worthy resume". In that case, they would be like all the other "lowly" 1 bid leagues where somebody has to go dancing whether "worthy" or not. That is why I have them at only 80%. My % is based on their chances of being atlarge worthy, not on their chances of going dancing. Sometimes we forget that those are 2 different things.
My cut line is based on absolutely no "bid stealing" in conference tournaments. This means I'm not planning on Maryland winning the ACC tourney. In reality, there is a good chance that a few bids are "stolen" this way, meaning the cut would effectively move up one spot. By Selection Sunday, we may see the cut move up 1-4 spots, meaning even if my bubble order stays the same, some of the teams above the cut right now might not finish above the cut.
There is also one more reason for my method. Let's use Utah State as an example. They probably have a 90% chance of winning out and earning the auto-bid from the WAC. Bubble teams will be strongly rooting for this to happen. Now imagine that the WAC didn't get an auto bid. What would Utah State's chances be of receiving an atlarge bid then? I think they would be good, maybe around 80-85%, but there would be no guarantee that they would receive an atlarge bid. Now, back to reality. My point is that Utah State might possibly win the auto-bid without an "atlarge worthy resume". In that case, they would be like all the other "lowly" 1 bid leagues where somebody has to go dancing whether "worthy" or not. That is why I have them at only 80%. My % is based on their chances of being atlarge worthy, not on their chances of going dancing. Sometimes we forget that those are 2 different things.
Projections Through 3/2/11
Well, BYU just lost their 1 seed. I don't think any of us saw an 18 point home loss to New Mexico on the radar. This team could drop as far as a 4 seed if they don't finish strong. Very interesting!
Kansas and Ohio State are almost locks now for #1 seeds. There is a pretty good battle going on for the last two #1 spots.
Bubbles that popped last night: Minnesota, Maryland
12:26 PM: ALL UPDATES FOR TODAY'S PROJECTIONS HAVE NOW BEEN MADE.
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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (4):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
CUSA (1 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Pac 10: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 10 + 37 = 51
Fighting For #1 Seeds (7):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (14):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, UCLA, Villanova
Other Locks (12):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Kansas State, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UNLV, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (18 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Washington - 95%
Georgia -90%
Gonzaga - 90%
Florida State - 85%
UAB - 85%
Marquette - 80%
Utah State - 80%
Illinois - 75%
Michigan State - 75%
Butler - 65%
St. Mary’s - 55%
Boston College - 55%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Richmond - 50%
Michigan - 45%
Alabama - 30%
Washington State - 25%
Missouri State - 25%
----- CUT LINE -----
Clemson - 25%
Colorado State - 20%
Nebraska - 20%
Baylor - 20%
USC - 15%
Cleveland State - 10%
Memphis - 10%
Colorado - 5%
Southern Mississippi - 5%
Marshall - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Harvard (19-5, RPI 43) - Without a conference tourney, they can't afford another loss
Princeton (21-5, RPI 49) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Wichita State (22-7, RPI 50) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 90
Central Florida (18-9, RPI 53) - Started 13-0, but are 4-9 since then
Oakland (21-9, RPI 54) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
Belmont (28-4, RPI 55) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Oklahoma State (18-11, RPI 56) - Currently 6-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Penn State (15-13, RPI 59) - 13 losses including a home loss to Maine is too much to overcome
Drexel (20-9, RPI 61) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
UTEP (21-8, RPI 62) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, RPI 64) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 50
Minnesota (17-12, RPI 66) - Has now lost 8 of their last 9 games
California (16-13, RPI 67) - Not enough big wins to counter a 14th loss
Miami FL (18-12, RPI 69) - Currently 5-9 in the ACC
Kansas and Ohio State are almost locks now for #1 seeds. There is a pretty good battle going on for the last two #1 spots.
Bubbles that popped last night: Minnesota, Maryland
12:26 PM: ALL UPDATES FOR TODAY'S PROJECTIONS HAVE NOW BEEN MADE.
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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (4):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
CUSA (1 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Pac 10: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 10 + 37 = 51
Fighting For #1 Seeds (7):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (14):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, UCLA, Villanova
Other Locks (12):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Kansas State, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UNLV, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (18 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Washington - 95%
Georgia -90%
Gonzaga - 90%
Florida State - 85%
UAB - 85%
Marquette - 80%
Utah State - 80%
Illinois - 75%
Michigan State - 75%
Butler - 65%
St. Mary’s - 55%
Boston College - 55%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Richmond - 50%
Michigan - 45%
Alabama - 30%
Washington State - 25%
Missouri State - 25%
----- CUT LINE -----
Clemson - 25%
Colorado State - 20%
Nebraska - 20%
Baylor - 20%
USC - 15%
Cleveland State - 10%
Memphis - 10%
Colorado - 5%
Southern Mississippi - 5%
Marshall - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Harvard (19-5, RPI 43) - Without a conference tourney, they can't afford another loss
Princeton (21-5, RPI 49) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Wichita State (22-7, RPI 50) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 90
Central Florida (18-9, RPI 53) - Started 13-0, but are 4-9 since then
Oakland (21-9, RPI 54) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
Belmont (28-4, RPI 55) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Oklahoma State (18-11, RPI 56) - Currently 6-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Penn State (15-13, RPI 59) - 13 losses including a home loss to Maine is too much to overcome
Drexel (20-9, RPI 61) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
UTEP (21-8, RPI 62) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, RPI 64) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 50
Minnesota (17-12, RPI 66) - Has now lost 8 of their last 9 games
California (16-13, RPI 67) - Not enough big wins to counter a 14th loss
Miami FL (18-12, RPI 69) - Currently 5-9 in the ACC
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
The Pros & Cons of the RPI - How It Works (Part 1)
This post is the second in a series I am doing on the RPI. My hope is that it will help clarify the mystery surrounding the formula. If you have questions or comments, I would love to hear from you and attempt to address your concerns in a future post. All posts in this series will be available under the “My Thoughts” tab at the top of the page.
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NOTE: THIS POST WILL ONLY BE DEALING WITH THE BASICS OF THE RPI FORMULA. I FELT IT NECESSARY TO START SIMPLE, BUT I PLAN ON GOING INTO MUCH MORE DETAIL IN FUTURE POSTS.
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Most college basketball fans know about the RPI. They know it is a computer ratings system that the Selection Committee uses to help make decisions. They know that it gets quoted about 10 times a minute on ESPN during the months of February and March.
Most college basketball fans also know about the movement of the RPI from day to day. A very common conversation on message boards is one trying to answer the question "How much will we move up/down after a win/loss to team X?" Often, a common frustration with the RPI is that a team can win a game and actually drop in the next day's RPI ratings. In the same way, a team can move up after a loss. Obviously, this seems counter intuitive, and many fans dismiss the RPI entirely as soon as they find out that these types of things are possible.
Despite all this knowledge about the RPI, many fans don't really understand what the formula is or how it works. Let's start with the formula. It is actually quite simple. Here is the formula for the RPI of Team A.
(0.25 x Team A's winning %)
+
(0.5 x Team A's opponents' winning %)
+
(0.25 x Team A's opponents' opponents' winning %)
=
RPI
Does this look confusing? It really isn't all that complicated. For example, if Team A won 80% of their games, they played opponents who won 60% of their games, and the opponents of their opponents won 48% of their games, then Team A's RPI would be:
(.25)(80) + (.5)(60) + (.25)(48) = .62
The number 0.62 would then be compared to the RPI of every other team in the country and they would be ranked from highest to lowest. For example, 0.86 might be the highest RPI value of any team in the country, making that team #1 in the RPI. A team with an RPI of 0.50 would probably be very average. A team with an RPI of 0.21 might be near the very bottom. RPI's can range from 0 (worst) to 1 (best). When you hear that a team's RPI is 39, that means that their RPI value is the 39th highest out of all the teams in the country.
Finally, there is one more component that I have to mention. Starting in 2004, the NCAA changed the RPI formula slightly to help differentiate between home games and road games. This was an effort to level the playing field since some teams (usually from BCS conferences) played almost all of their non-conference games at home while other teams (usually from smaller conferences) played almost all of their non-conference games on the road. This final component is a multiplier that makes home wins less valuable than road wins, and road losses less penalizing than home losses. It is also a simple formula.
Home wins count as 0.6 wins
Home losses count as 1.4 losses
Road wins count as 1.4 wins
Road losses count as 0.6 losses
This affects all of the percentages listed in the orginal formula. It means that a 10-10 team may or may not have a .500 winning % in the RPI formula. If they played 10 home games and 10 road games, it will indeed be .500, but if they were 9-5 at home and only 1-5 on the road, they still finished 10-10 (.500) but the number entered as their winning % in the RPI formula would be different. The RPI would see their record as:
(0.6 x 9) + (1.4 x 1) = 6.8 wins
(1.4 x 5) + (0.6 x 5) = 10 losses
6.8 + 10 = 16.8 games
6.8 / 16.8 = .405 winning %
Notice the difference between the 2 examples. Our 10-10 team that played 14 games at home and only 6 on the road actually had a winning % that looks like they only won 8 of their 20 games. This is the "penalty" that the NCAA has placed on teams that play more than half of their games at home. This also works the other way, as teams who play more than half of their games away from home are "rewarded".
Hopefully this helps you to better understand how the RPI works in terms of the formula itself. If you still have questions, feel free to comment on this post and I'll try my best to answer.
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NOTE: THIS POST WILL ONLY BE DEALING WITH THE BASICS OF THE RPI FORMULA. I FELT IT NECESSARY TO START SIMPLE, BUT I PLAN ON GOING INTO MUCH MORE DETAIL IN FUTURE POSTS.
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Most college basketball fans know about the RPI. They know it is a computer ratings system that the Selection Committee uses to help make decisions. They know that it gets quoted about 10 times a minute on ESPN during the months of February and March.
Most college basketball fans also know about the movement of the RPI from day to day. A very common conversation on message boards is one trying to answer the question "How much will we move up/down after a win/loss to team X?" Often, a common frustration with the RPI is that a team can win a game and actually drop in the next day's RPI ratings. In the same way, a team can move up after a loss. Obviously, this seems counter intuitive, and many fans dismiss the RPI entirely as soon as they find out that these types of things are possible.
Despite all this knowledge about the RPI, many fans don't really understand what the formula is or how it works. Let's start with the formula. It is actually quite simple. Here is the formula for the RPI of Team A.
(0.25 x Team A's winning %)
+
(0.5 x Team A's opponents' winning %)
+
(0.25 x Team A's opponents' opponents' winning %)
=
RPI
Does this look confusing? It really isn't all that complicated. For example, if Team A won 80% of their games, they played opponents who won 60% of their games, and the opponents of their opponents won 48% of their games, then Team A's RPI would be:
(.25)(80) + (.5)(60) + (.25)(48) = .62
The number 0.62 would then be compared to the RPI of every other team in the country and they would be ranked from highest to lowest. For example, 0.86 might be the highest RPI value of any team in the country, making that team #1 in the RPI. A team with an RPI of 0.50 would probably be very average. A team with an RPI of 0.21 might be near the very bottom. RPI's can range from 0 (worst) to 1 (best). When you hear that a team's RPI is 39, that means that their RPI value is the 39th highest out of all the teams in the country.
Finally, there is one more component that I have to mention. Starting in 2004, the NCAA changed the RPI formula slightly to help differentiate between home games and road games. This was an effort to level the playing field since some teams (usually from BCS conferences) played almost all of their non-conference games at home while other teams (usually from smaller conferences) played almost all of their non-conference games on the road. This final component is a multiplier that makes home wins less valuable than road wins, and road losses less penalizing than home losses. It is also a simple formula.
Home wins count as 0.6 wins
Home losses count as 1.4 losses
Road wins count as 1.4 wins
Road losses count as 0.6 losses
This affects all of the percentages listed in the orginal formula. It means that a 10-10 team may or may not have a .500 winning % in the RPI formula. If they played 10 home games and 10 road games, it will indeed be .500, but if they were 9-5 at home and only 1-5 on the road, they still finished 10-10 (.500) but the number entered as their winning % in the RPI formula would be different. The RPI would see their record as:
(0.6 x 9) + (1.4 x 1) = 6.8 wins
(1.4 x 5) + (0.6 x 5) = 10 losses
6.8 + 10 = 16.8 games
6.8 / 16.8 = .405 winning %
Notice the difference between the 2 examples. Our 10-10 team that played 14 games at home and only 6 on the road actually had a winning % that looks like they only won 8 of their 20 games. This is the "penalty" that the NCAA has placed on teams that play more than half of their games at home. This also works the other way, as teams who play more than half of their games away from home are "rewarded".
Hopefully this helps you to better understand how the RPI works in terms of the formula itself. If you still have questions, feel free to comment on this post and I'll try my best to answer.
Team of the Day - Richmond - 40% Chance
Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes. I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid. If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.
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Richmond is the forgotten team in this year's A10. Everyone knows about Xavier and Temple. Duquesne started conference play 8-0 and received a bunch of attention until their recent collapse. Richmond has spent most of the year playing consistent basketball and avoiding the spotlight. They haven't won more than 4 games in a row all year, but they haven't lost back-to-back games either. They are currently 22-7 overall and 11-3 in the A10. With an RPI of 61, they are about as bubbly as they come.
Richmond's hopes largely hang on the value of their non-conf win over Purdue. It is their only top 50 win so far, and 1 of only 3 top 100 wins. With a loss to RPI 181 Georgia Tech and an RPI that is less than impressive, Richmond needs Purdue to finish strong so that the win back in November looks as good as possible.
Remaining schedule:
@St. Joseph's (8-20, RPI 188)
Duquesne (16-10, RPI 100)
Estimated RPI:
58 - Finish 2-0
70 - Finish 1-1
81 - Finish 0-2
What they need:
Richmond can't afford a loss to teams like St. Joseph's or Duquesne at this point, so a 2-0 finish is imperative if they want a shot at an atlarge bid. They should have about a 60% chance at sweeping these 2 remaining games. At that point, they would be 24-7 with an RPI in the high 50s. With a little bit of success in the A10 Tournament, they should receive an atlarge bid.
Assuming Richmond finishes 3rd in the A10, they will face the winner of the 6/11 game. This would likely be RPI 152 George Washington, who Richmond swept in the regular season. A win here is more about avoiding a bad loss than adding a quality win. Fortunately for Richmond, that may be all they need. A trip to the semis would likely result in a matchup with Temple, where a loss would result in an RPI in the mid-50s. They would still be sweating it out on Selection Sunday, but the lack of bad losses this calender year along with the key quality win over Purdue would probably be enough to warrant a bid. I will give Richmond a 50% chance of winning out until the semis and a 70% chance of receiving an atlarge bid at that point. That puts Richmond at a 35% chance of receiving an atlarge bid. Finally, add in a small chance that their next loss is no sooner than the A10 finals, and I come up with a 40% chance that Richmond is atlarge worthy on Selection Sunday.
Summary:
Richmond needs to win their next 3 games to have a chance at an atlarge bid. 4 wins in a row would remove any doubt on Selection Sunday.
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Richmond is the forgotten team in this year's A10. Everyone knows about Xavier and Temple. Duquesne started conference play 8-0 and received a bunch of attention until their recent collapse. Richmond has spent most of the year playing consistent basketball and avoiding the spotlight. They haven't won more than 4 games in a row all year, but they haven't lost back-to-back games either. They are currently 22-7 overall and 11-3 in the A10. With an RPI of 61, they are about as bubbly as they come.
Richmond's hopes largely hang on the value of their non-conf win over Purdue. It is their only top 50 win so far, and 1 of only 3 top 100 wins. With a loss to RPI 181 Georgia Tech and an RPI that is less than impressive, Richmond needs Purdue to finish strong so that the win back in November looks as good as possible.
Remaining schedule:
@St. Joseph's (8-20, RPI 188)
Duquesne (16-10, RPI 100)
Estimated RPI:
58 - Finish 2-0
70 - Finish 1-1
81 - Finish 0-2
What they need:
Richmond can't afford a loss to teams like St. Joseph's or Duquesne at this point, so a 2-0 finish is imperative if they want a shot at an atlarge bid. They should have about a 60% chance at sweeping these 2 remaining games. At that point, they would be 24-7 with an RPI in the high 50s. With a little bit of success in the A10 Tournament, they should receive an atlarge bid.
Assuming Richmond finishes 3rd in the A10, they will face the winner of the 6/11 game. This would likely be RPI 152 George Washington, who Richmond swept in the regular season. A win here is more about avoiding a bad loss than adding a quality win. Fortunately for Richmond, that may be all they need. A trip to the semis would likely result in a matchup with Temple, where a loss would result in an RPI in the mid-50s. They would still be sweating it out on Selection Sunday, but the lack of bad losses this calender year along with the key quality win over Purdue would probably be enough to warrant a bid. I will give Richmond a 50% chance of winning out until the semis and a 70% chance of receiving an atlarge bid at that point. That puts Richmond at a 35% chance of receiving an atlarge bid. Finally, add in a small chance that their next loss is no sooner than the A10 finals, and I come up with a 40% chance that Richmond is atlarge worthy on Selection Sunday.
Summary:
Richmond needs to win their next 3 games to have a chance at an atlarge bid. 4 wins in a row would remove any doubt on Selection Sunday.
Projections Through 3/1/11
12:15 PM - ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. TODAY'S PROJECTIONS ARE NOW OFFICIAL.
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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 3)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 11 + 37 = 50
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
BYU, Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (14):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, Villanova
Other Locks (11):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Kansas State, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (17 In, 13 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Washington - 90%
Florida State - 90%
Marquette - 90%
Georgia - 85%
Gonzaga - 80%
Illinois - 70%
Utah State - 70%
Michigan State - 65%
Butler - 60%
UAB - 50%
St. Mary’s - 50%
Boston College - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Richmond - 40%
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Michigan - 35%
Memphis - 30%
----- CUT LINE -----
Clemson - 30%
Colorado - 25%
Alabama - 20%
Missouri State - 20%
Washington State - 20%
Nebraska - 15%
Baylor - 10%
Colorado State - 10%
Marshall - 10%
Cleveland State - 10%
USC - 5%
Maryland - 5%
Minnesota - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Harvard (19-5, RPI 44) - Without a conference tourney, they can't afford another loss
Belmont (27-4, RPI 50) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Princeton (21-5, RPI 51) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Wichita State (22-7, RPI 53) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 90
Oakland (21-9, RPI 55) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
Central Florida (17-9, RPI 56) - Started 13-0, but are 4-9 since then
Oklahoma State (18-11, RPI 57) - Currently 6-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Penn State (15-13, RPI 59) - 13 losses including a home loss to Maine is too much to overcome
Drexel (20-9, RPI 62) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, RPI 64) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 50
California (16-13, RPI 65) - Not enough big wins to counter a 14th loss
Dayton (19-10, RPI 67) - 1-5 vs top 50 + Not enough opportunity left to raise their RPI
Miami FL (17-12, RPI 69) - Currently 5-9 in the ACC
UTEP (20-8, RPI 70) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 3)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 11 + 37 = 50
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
BYU, Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (14):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, Villanova
Other Locks (11):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Kansas State, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (17 In, 13 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Washington - 90%
Florida State - 90%
Marquette - 90%
Georgia - 85%
Gonzaga - 80%
Illinois - 70%
Utah State - 70%
Michigan State - 65%
Butler - 60%
UAB - 50%
St. Mary’s - 50%
Boston College - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Richmond - 40%
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Michigan - 35%
Memphis - 30%
----- CUT LINE -----
Clemson - 30%
Colorado - 25%
Alabama - 20%
Missouri State - 20%
Washington State - 20%
Nebraska - 15%
Baylor - 10%
Colorado State - 10%
Marshall - 10%
Cleveland State - 10%
USC - 5%
Maryland - 5%
Minnesota - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Harvard (19-5, RPI 44) - Without a conference tourney, they can't afford another loss
Belmont (27-4, RPI 50) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Princeton (21-5, RPI 51) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Wichita State (22-7, RPI 53) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 90
Oakland (21-9, RPI 55) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
Central Florida (17-9, RPI 56) - Started 13-0, but are 4-9 since then
Oklahoma State (18-11, RPI 57) - Currently 6-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Penn State (15-13, RPI 59) - 13 losses including a home loss to Maine is too much to overcome
Drexel (20-9, RPI 62) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, RPI 64) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 50
California (16-13, RPI 65) - Not enough big wins to counter a 14th loss
Dayton (19-10, RPI 67) - 1-5 vs top 50 + Not enough opportunity left to raise their RPI
Miami FL (17-12, RPI 69) - Currently 5-9 in the ACC
UTEP (20-8, RPI 70) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
The Pros & Cons of the RPI - Introduction
The RPI is loved by some, hated by others, and misunderstood by many. Those who love it usually point to the simplicity of the formula and the fact that it is the one formula that really matters to the Selection Committee. Those who hate it like to find the outliers; those teams that are extremely over/underrated. They also point to the fact that a team can move up after a loss or down after a win in the RPI rankings.
The real key to understanding the RPI is to understand what it IS good for and what it IS NOT good for. As with any computer formula, it has its flaws, and we must be careful not to take its rankings as indisputable facts. However, it can be a very useful tool when used properly, so we don’t want to make the mistake of disregarding it entirely either.
This post is the first in a series I will be doing on the RPI. My hope is that it will help clarify the mystery surrounding the formula. If you have questions or comments, I would love to hear from you and attempt to address your concerns in a future post. All posts in this series will be available under the “Archive of Cool Stuff” tab at the top of the page.
Continue to "The Pros & Cons of the RPI (Part 1)"
Return to "Archive of Cool Stuff" Main Page
___________________________________________________
The real key to understanding the RPI is to understand what it IS good for and what it IS NOT good for. As with any computer formula, it has its flaws, and we must be careful not to take its rankings as indisputable facts. However, it can be a very useful tool when used properly, so we don’t want to make the mistake of disregarding it entirely either.
This post is the first in a series I will be doing on the RPI. My hope is that it will help clarify the mystery surrounding the formula. If you have questions or comments, I would love to hear from you and attempt to address your concerns in a future post. All posts in this series will be available under the “Archive of Cool Stuff” tab at the top of the page.
Continue to "The Pros & Cons of the RPI (Part 1)"
Return to "Archive of Cool Stuff" Main Page
___________________________________________________
Team of the Day - Maryland - 5% Chance
Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes. I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid. If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.
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This year, it seems like Maryland is trying to take all the fun out of basketball. They lose to really good teams, and they beat everyone else. They have been about as consistent as any team in America in that regard. 1-11 against the top 53 in the RPI, 17-0 against everyone else.
Maryland is quite the long shot this year when it comes to earning an atlarge bid. With an RPI of 83 and only 1 top 50 win, they aren't even worth considering right now. The reason I am even paying any attention to them is because of their potential. Their single digit losses include Pittsburgh, Illinois, Temple, Boston College (x2), Duke, Villanova, & Virginia Tech. Double digit wins include Penn State and Florida State. With potential for some big wins in the ACC tourney, Maryland's resume could improve dramatically if they can get over the hump and finally beat some quality teams.
Remaining schedule:
@Miami FL
Virginia
Estimated RPI:
72 - Finish 2-0
87 - Finish 1-1
What they need:
Maryland absolutely has to win both of their remaining games to have any shot at an atlarge bid. I would give them about a 50% chance of pulling this off. If they do, they will probably face Wake Forest to open up the ACC Tournament. Unfortunately for them, this game will do absolutely nothing other than move them on to the next round. They would be such a huge favorite, I will keep their odds at winning out through this game at 50%. Next up would likely be Virginia Tech. The Terps are 0-2 vs the Hokies so far this year. I would give Maryland a 40% chance of winning this 3rd matchup with Virginia Tech, meaning they have a 20% chance of winning out from today until the semi-finals of the ACC Tournament. Where would that put them? Maryland would be 22-11 and have won 6 of their last 7 games. Unfortunately, Virginia Tech is not a signature win, so Maryland would still be on the wrong side of the bubble with an RPI likely now in the 60s.
Moving on, everything points to a matchup with Duke or North Carolina in the semis, and then the other team waiting in the finals. Could a win in the semis and then a close loss in the finals be enough? Winning out until the championship game would put Maryland at 23-12. Their RPI would likely finish in the mid-40s... much more respectable for a bubble team. They would have absolutely no bad losses and would be one of the hottest teams in the country. I think the committee would have a hard time leaving them out at that point as long as their loss in the finals was competitive.
So what are their chances of pulling this off? We’ve already given them a 20% chance at winning out until the semis. In that round, they would probably have about a 1 in 4 chance of upsetting Duke or Carolina, so that drops them to 5% overall. Based on their record so far of playing competitively with good teams, I think they would likely put up a solid effort in the finals, and although I don’t think they would win, I think they would have done enough to earn an atlarge bid.
One final thought. What if Duke or North Carolina get upset before facing Maryland? Well, this would definitely be a hit for Maryland’s atlarge chances as they need a big win. However, this would give them a sliver of hope of winning the whole ACC tourney, something I don’t think they can do if they have to go through both of the ACC’s powerhouses.
Summary:
Maryland will need to win their next 5 games and then lose to Duke or North Carolina in the ACC final in order to receive an atlarge bid.
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This year, it seems like Maryland is trying to take all the fun out of basketball. They lose to really good teams, and they beat everyone else. They have been about as consistent as any team in America in that regard. 1-11 against the top 53 in the RPI, 17-0 against everyone else.
Maryland is quite the long shot this year when it comes to earning an atlarge bid. With an RPI of 83 and only 1 top 50 win, they aren't even worth considering right now. The reason I am even paying any attention to them is because of their potential. Their single digit losses include Pittsburgh, Illinois, Temple, Boston College (x2), Duke, Villanova, & Virginia Tech. Double digit wins include Penn State and Florida State. With potential for some big wins in the ACC tourney, Maryland's resume could improve dramatically if they can get over the hump and finally beat some quality teams.
Remaining schedule:
@Miami FL
Virginia
Estimated RPI:
72 - Finish 2-0
87 - Finish 1-1
What they need:
Maryland absolutely has to win both of their remaining games to have any shot at an atlarge bid. I would give them about a 50% chance of pulling this off. If they do, they will probably face Wake Forest to open up the ACC Tournament. Unfortunately for them, this game will do absolutely nothing other than move them on to the next round. They would be such a huge favorite, I will keep their odds at winning out through this game at 50%. Next up would likely be Virginia Tech. The Terps are 0-2 vs the Hokies so far this year. I would give Maryland a 40% chance of winning this 3rd matchup with Virginia Tech, meaning they have a 20% chance of winning out from today until the semi-finals of the ACC Tournament. Where would that put them? Maryland would be 22-11 and have won 6 of their last 7 games. Unfortunately, Virginia Tech is not a signature win, so Maryland would still be on the wrong side of the bubble with an RPI likely now in the 60s.
Moving on, everything points to a matchup with Duke or North Carolina in the semis, and then the other team waiting in the finals. Could a win in the semis and then a close loss in the finals be enough? Winning out until the championship game would put Maryland at 23-12. Their RPI would likely finish in the mid-40s... much more respectable for a bubble team. They would have absolutely no bad losses and would be one of the hottest teams in the country. I think the committee would have a hard time leaving them out at that point as long as their loss in the finals was competitive.
So what are their chances of pulling this off? We’ve already given them a 20% chance at winning out until the semis. In that round, they would probably have about a 1 in 4 chance of upsetting Duke or Carolina, so that drops them to 5% overall. Based on their record so far of playing competitively with good teams, I think they would likely put up a solid effort in the finals, and although I don’t think they would win, I think they would have done enough to earn an atlarge bid.
One final thought. What if Duke or North Carolina get upset before facing Maryland? Well, this would definitely be a hit for Maryland’s atlarge chances as they need a big win. However, this would give them a sliver of hope of winning the whole ACC tourney, something I don’t think they can do if they have to go through both of the ACC’s powerhouses.
Summary:
Maryland will need to win their next 5 games and then lose to Duke or North Carolina in the ACC final in order to receive an atlarge bid.
Projections Through 2/28/11
Well, Texas sure blew that one! They had a chance to be the number one overall seed just a couple weeks ago. Now, they are looking squarely at a 3 or 4 seed.
My only other change today is to drop Missouri State's % down a little. I took another look at their resume, and I think they are going to be lucky to receive an atlarge if they lose in the MVC tournament, even if they make the finals and lose to Wichita State.
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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 4 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 3)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 11 + 37 = 50
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
BYU, Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (16):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (9):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Kansas State, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (17 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Washington - 90%
Florida State - 90%
Virginia Tech - 90%
Marquette - 90%
Georgia - 85%
Illinois - 80%
Gonzaga - 80%
Utah State - 70%
Michigan State - 65%
Butler - 60%
UAB - 50%
St. Mary’s - 50%
Richmond - 40%
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Michigan - 35%
Alabama - 30%
Memphis - 30%
----- CUT LINE -----
Clemson - 30%
Boston College - 25%
Colorado - 25%
Missouri State - 20%
Baylor - 20%
Washington State - 20%
Colorado State - 10%
Marshall - 10%
Cleveland State - 10%
USC - 5%
Maryland - 5%
Nebraska - 5%
Penn State - 5%
Minnesota - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Harvard (19-5, RPI 44) - Without a conference tourney, they can't afford another loss
Belmont (27-4, RPI 50) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Princeton (21-5, RPI 51) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Wichita State (22-7, RPI 53) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 90
Oakland (21-9, RPI 56) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
Central Florida (17-9, RPI 58) - Started 13-0, but are 4-9 since then
Oklahoma State (17-11, RPI 61) - Currently 5-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Drexel (20-9, RPI 63) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, RPI 64) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 50
Dayton (19-10, RPI 66) - 1-5 vs top 50 + Not enough opportunity left to raise their RPI
California (16-13, RPI 67) - Not enough big wins to counter a 14th loss
Miami FL (17-12, RPI 69) - Currently 5-9 in the ACC
UTEP (20-8, RPI 70) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
My only other change today is to drop Missouri State's % down a little. I took another look at their resume, and I think they are going to be lucky to receive an atlarge if they lose in the MVC tournament, even if they make the finals and lose to Wichita State.
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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 4 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 3)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 11 + 37 = 50
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
BYU, Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (16):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (9):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Kansas State, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (17 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Washington - 90%
Florida State - 90%
Virginia Tech - 90%
Marquette - 90%
Georgia - 85%
Illinois - 80%
Gonzaga - 80%
Utah State - 70%
Michigan State - 65%
Butler - 60%
UAB - 50%
St. Mary’s - 50%
Richmond - 40%
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Michigan - 35%
Alabama - 30%
Memphis - 30%
----- CUT LINE -----
Clemson - 30%
Boston College - 25%
Colorado - 25%
Missouri State - 20%
Baylor - 20%
Washington State - 20%
Colorado State - 10%
Marshall - 10%
Cleveland State - 10%
USC - 5%
Maryland - 5%
Nebraska - 5%
Penn State - 5%
Minnesota - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Harvard (19-5, RPI 44) - Without a conference tourney, they can't afford another loss
Belmont (27-4, RPI 50) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Princeton (21-5, RPI 51) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Wichita State (22-7, RPI 53) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 90
Oakland (21-9, RPI 56) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
Central Florida (17-9, RPI 58) - Started 13-0, but are 4-9 since then
Oklahoma State (17-11, RPI 61) - Currently 5-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Drexel (20-9, RPI 63) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, RPI 64) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 50
Dayton (19-10, RPI 66) - 1-5 vs top 50 + Not enough opportunity left to raise their RPI
California (16-13, RPI 67) - Not enough big wins to counter a 14th loss
Miami FL (17-12, RPI 69) - Currently 5-9 in the ACC
UTEP (20-8, RPI 70) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
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