Wednesday, March 9, 2011
The Final #1 Seed
Kansas, Ohio State, and Pittsburgh look like near locks for #1 seeds. That likely leaves Duke and Notre Dame to fight it out for the final #1. At the moment, I think Notre Dame has the slightly better resume. However, I think Duke has a much better chance at winning its conference tourney, and I think that will ultimately propel them to the final #1 seed. Should Notre Dame find a way to win the Big East Tournament, I think they will grab the final #1 seed and give the Big East 2 top seeds.
Projections Through 3/8/11
Last night saw 3 more bids handed out. Arkansas Little Rock won the Sun Belt Tourney and Oakland won the Summit League Tourney. In the Horizon Tournament Final, Butler did all bubble teams a favor and took the auto-bid, leaving an atlarge spot behind for one lucky team.
In other games, Villanova lost to South Florida for its 5th consecutive loss. Villanova is still going to make the tournament, but trying to seed them is going to be really difficult. They could end up anywhere from an 8 to an 11 depending on just how much the committee wants to look at their most recent trend vs their season as a whole.
Princeton beat Penn 70-58 on their way to sharing the Ivy League Championship with Harvard. A 1 game playoff on Saturday will determine who goes dancing.
Today's action:
Connecticut vs. Georgetown - A battle of 2 teams fighting for a protected seed
Rutgers vs. St. John's - St. John's seed will largely be based upon their end of the year hot streak. A loss here would really damper their momentum and probably drop them out of protected seed status.
Oklahoma State vs. Nebraska - A must win for the Huskers if they want to stay on the bubble. OSU needs to win the whole tournament if they want to be dancing.
Iowa State vs. Colorado - Colorado also needs this win if they want any shot at an atlarge bid. They will probably need atleast a trip to the semifinals or they will be playing in the NIT.
Oklahoma vs. Baylor - This is the 3rd Big 12 game of the day involving a team that must win to keep its bubble hopes alive. Baylor, just like Nebraska and Colorado, needs this one and one more if they want to have a pleasant Selection Sunday.
South Florida vs. Cincinnati - The adjustment from a weak non-conf schedule to a tough Big East schedule hasn't phased the Bearcats at all. This game is all about NCAA seeding for them.
Houston vs. Marshall - Marshall is a long shot at this point and needs a trip to the CUSA Finals for any chance to be dancing.
Marquette vs. West Virginia - Marquette is probably safe after last night's win over Providence. Just to be sure, a win over the Mountaineers would make them very comfortable on Selection Sunday. West Virginia meanwhile is trying to make a run and move all the way up into a protected seed.
Texas Tech vs. Missouri - The Tigers were once thought to be a Big 12 contender. Now, they need a few wins away from Columbia in order to avoid the dreaded 8/9 seed in the Big Dance.
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Auto Bids (11 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big South - UNC Asheville
CAA - Old Dominion
Horizon - Butler
MAAC - St. Peter's
MVC - Indiana State
OVC - Morehead State
Southern - Wofford
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - Arkansas Little Rock
WCC - Gonzaga
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (18):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (Tourney is over and only Missouri State has a small chance at an atlarge bid)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
CUSA (UAB is probably in no matter what. Memphis and Marshall are still alive with slim hopes)
WAC (Utah State could use up an atlarge spot if needed)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 10 + 37 = 50
Fighting For #1 Seeds (5):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh
Fighting For Protected Seeds (16):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, Purdue, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin
Other Locks (15):
Butler, Cincinnati, Florida State, George Mason, Gonzaga, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Xavier
Bubble (14 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Marquette - 95%
UAB - 95%
Illinois - 90%
Utah State - 90%
Georgia - 75%
Richmond - 75%
Michigan - 70%
Michigan State - 60%
Boston College - 55%
St. Mary’s - 55%
Clemson - 50%
Alabama - 40%
Colorado - 35%
----- CUT LINE -----
Virginia Tech - 30%
Washington State - 25%
Memphis - 15%
USC - 15%
Baylor - 10%
Marshall - 10%
Missouri State - 10%
Colorado State - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Nebraska - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Cleveland State (24-8, RPI 41) - 0-5 vs the top 50
Princeton (23-6, RPI 49) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Virginia Commonwealth (23-11, RPI 50) - 3 losses outside top 150
Southern Mississippi (18-9, RPI 54) - Lost their last 3 regular season games and finished 5th in CUSA
Penn State (16-13, RPI 55) - 14 losses including a home loss to Maine would be too much to overcome
UTEP (22-8, RPI 60) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Wichita State (23-8, RPI 61) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 75Washington - 95%
Click image to enlarge
In other games, Villanova lost to South Florida for its 5th consecutive loss. Villanova is still going to make the tournament, but trying to seed them is going to be really difficult. They could end up anywhere from an 8 to an 11 depending on just how much the committee wants to look at their most recent trend vs their season as a whole.
Princeton beat Penn 70-58 on their way to sharing the Ivy League Championship with Harvard. A 1 game playoff on Saturday will determine who goes dancing.
Today's action:
Connecticut vs. Georgetown - A battle of 2 teams fighting for a protected seed
Rutgers vs. St. John's - St. John's seed will largely be based upon their end of the year hot streak. A loss here would really damper their momentum and probably drop them out of protected seed status.
Oklahoma State vs. Nebraska - A must win for the Huskers if they want to stay on the bubble. OSU needs to win the whole tournament if they want to be dancing.
Iowa State vs. Colorado - Colorado also needs this win if they want any shot at an atlarge bid. They will probably need atleast a trip to the semifinals or they will be playing in the NIT.
Oklahoma vs. Baylor - This is the 3rd Big 12 game of the day involving a team that must win to keep its bubble hopes alive. Baylor, just like Nebraska and Colorado, needs this one and one more if they want to have a pleasant Selection Sunday.
South Florida vs. Cincinnati - The adjustment from a weak non-conf schedule to a tough Big East schedule hasn't phased the Bearcats at all. This game is all about NCAA seeding for them.
Houston vs. Marshall - Marshall is a long shot at this point and needs a trip to the CUSA Finals for any chance to be dancing.
Marquette vs. West Virginia - Marquette is probably safe after last night's win over Providence. Just to be sure, a win over the Mountaineers would make them very comfortable on Selection Sunday. West Virginia meanwhile is trying to make a run and move all the way up into a protected seed.
Texas Tech vs. Missouri - The Tigers were once thought to be a Big 12 contender. Now, they need a few wins away from Columbia in order to avoid the dreaded 8/9 seed in the Big Dance.
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Auto Bids (11 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big South - UNC Asheville
CAA - Old Dominion
Horizon - Butler
MAAC - St. Peter's
MVC - Indiana State
OVC - Morehead State
Southern - Wofford
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - Arkansas Little Rock
WCC - Gonzaga
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (18):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (Tourney is over and only Missouri State has a small chance at an atlarge bid)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
CUSA (UAB is probably in no matter what. Memphis and Marshall are still alive with slim hopes)
WAC (Utah State could use up an atlarge spot if needed)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 10 + 37 = 50
Fighting For #1 Seeds (5):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh
Fighting For Protected Seeds (16):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, Purdue, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin
Other Locks (15):
Butler, Cincinnati, Florida State, George Mason, Gonzaga, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Xavier
Bubble (14 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Marquette - 95%
UAB - 95%
Illinois - 90%
Utah State - 90%
Georgia - 75%
Richmond - 75%
Michigan - 70%
Michigan State - 60%
Boston College - 55%
St. Mary’s - 55%
Clemson - 50%
Alabama - 40%
Colorado - 35%
----- CUT LINE -----
Virginia Tech - 30%
Washington State - 25%
Memphis - 15%
USC - 15%
Baylor - 10%
Marshall - 10%
Missouri State - 10%
Colorado State - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Nebraska - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Cleveland State (24-8, RPI 41) - 0-5 vs the top 50
Princeton (23-6, RPI 49) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Virginia Commonwealth (23-11, RPI 50) - 3 losses outside top 150
Southern Mississippi (18-9, RPI 54) - Lost their last 3 regular season games and finished 5th in CUSA
Penn State (16-13, RPI 55) - 14 losses including a home loss to Maine would be too much to overcome
UTEP (22-8, RPI 60) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Wichita State (23-8, RPI 61) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 75Washington - 95%
Click image to enlarge
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Blind Resume - 3/8/11
Here are 3 teams that I consider to be on the bubble at the moment. Take a look and decide for yourself who is the most deserving team in this group.
Team A - Memphis
Team B - Nebraska
Team C - St. Mary's
Surprised? Everyone says that St. Mary's is probably in and Memphis and Nebraska are all but sure to be out. However, after looking at this chart, it seems hard to put any team too far ahead of the others. Before I say anything else, let me add a little bit more info that doesn't show up on the chart.
Road & Neutral record / Best RPI road or neutral win
Memphis - 5-7 / 28 (@UAB)
Nebraska - 2-9 / 86 (N-Hofstra)
St. Mary's - 10-6 / 62 (@Gonzaga)
RPI
Memphis - 38
Nebraska - 79
St. Mary's - 47
Conference Finish / Conference RPI
Memphis - 10-6, 4th / 8th rated conf
Nebraska - 7-9, T7th / 3rd rated conf
St. Mary's - 11-3, T1st / 14th rated conf
Last 10 Games
Memphis - 6-4
Nebraska - 4-6
St. Mary's - 6-4
Ready for some insights? Actually, I want to pose some additional questions.
Why does Joe Lunardi have Nebraska 1 spot ahead of Memphis?
The chart above clearly gives an advantage to Memphis. Road/neutral wins give an advantage to Memphis. RPI gives a huge advantage to Memphis. Conference finish and last 10 games are probably a wash considering Nebraska has played the tougher schedule coming down the stretch. Lunardi claims to do his bracket "as of today" and not to project into the future. As of today, Memphis clearly has the better resume. How does he explain this one?
Why does Joe Lunardi have St. Mary's as a 10 seed and Nebraska & Memphis in his "Next 4 Out"?
St. Mary's is really this far ahead of the other 2? What exactly has St. Mary's done to stand out so far? Personally, I feel like I may be over-rating them by placing them as a 12 seed. I'm giving a lot of value to being regular season co-champs of the WCC as well as winning 10 games on road/neutral courts. If I'm struggling to give St. Mary's a 12 seed, how can Joe possibly have them as a 10?
Hopefully this helps you see why March_24_7 is THE place for team by team comparisons. One guy makes all the money. The other guy gets it right. The choice is yours.
Team of the Day - Memphis - 15% Chance
Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes. I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid. If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.
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Memphis... yet another CUSA bubble team. Like I mentioned with UAB, CUSA is just full of good, but not great teams that are probably on the outside looking in. Memphis fits this description perfectly. They are 22-9 overall, 10-6 in CUSA, and 38th in the RPI. With 3 losses in their last 5 games, they need to start playing better if they want to impress the Committee.
Overall, Memphis' numbers are deceptive. They have 9 wins vs the top 100, but 6 of those teams are likely NIT bound, and the other 3 are on the bubble. They only have 8 losses vs a top 60 SOS, but 6 are to NIT or worse teams, including 2 outside the top 150.
Likely Schedule in CUSA Tournament:
1st Round: Southern Miss (18-9, RPI 52)
2nd Round: UAB (22-7, RPI 28)
Championship: Tulsa/UTEP
Estimated RPI:
21 - Win the Tournament
30 - Championship Game Appearance
39 - Semi-Finals Appearance
51 - Quarter-Finals Loss
What they need:
After finishing the regular season poorly, Memphis is NIT bound if they lose in the quarterfinals of the CUSA Tournament. Obviously, winning the tournament would earn them an auto-bid, so there are two possible scenarios that would leave Memphis on the bubble. Fortunately for them, they are a combined 4-0 against their first 2 likely opponents. (Southern Miss & UAB)
If Memphis makes it to the semifinals and loses to UAB, they will have earned their 10th win against the top 100. I know that I already spend some time talking about why their number of top 100 wins is misleading, but something tells me that 10 top 100 wins will be a hard statistic for the Committee to ignore. With an RPI of 39, Memphis wouldn't be a lock, but they would have a decent shot on Selection Sunday, assuming there aren't too many "bid stealers" around the country. The biggest problem for Memphis would be their poor finish toward the end of the year. A 1-1 performance in the CUSA Tournament would still leave them 7-6 in their final 13 games.
A visit to the championship game and a competitive loss to Tulsa or UTEP would give Memphis an almost guaranteed atlarge bid. They would have erased their poor regular season finish, would have 11 top 50 wins, and with an RPI of 30, just wouldn't have many weaknesses on their overall profile. Big wins might be their weakest point, but they would have beaten bubble hopeful UAB for a 3rd time when they took them out in the semis. If Memphis makes it to the championship game and then does get blown out, who knows what the Committee would do with them. Their finish down the stretch could be considered good or bad, depending on how you look at it, and no team wants to leave the floor for the last time as a blowout loser.
As for chances of all of this happening, given Memphis' season sweep over UAB and Southern Miss, I think they have a reasonable chance at winning a couple games. I will say 60% chance at making the semis and 25% chance of making the finals. Memphis' atlarge hopes could take a shot if Tulane upsets Southern Miss or the 8/9 winner takes out UAB in the quarterfinals. Memphis needs quality wins to show that they have gotten their season back on track. Overall, I'll give Memphis a 15% chance of being atlarge worthy on Selection Sunday.
Summary:
Memphis needs 1 more win to be on the bubble and 2 more wins to be close to locking up an atlarge bid.
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Memphis... yet another CUSA bubble team. Like I mentioned with UAB, CUSA is just full of good, but not great teams that are probably on the outside looking in. Memphis fits this description perfectly. They are 22-9 overall, 10-6 in CUSA, and 38th in the RPI. With 3 losses in their last 5 games, they need to start playing better if they want to impress the Committee.
Overall, Memphis' numbers are deceptive. They have 9 wins vs the top 100, but 6 of those teams are likely NIT bound, and the other 3 are on the bubble. They only have 8 losses vs a top 60 SOS, but 6 are to NIT or worse teams, including 2 outside the top 150.
Likely Schedule in CUSA Tournament:
1st Round: Southern Miss (18-9, RPI 52)
2nd Round: UAB (22-7, RPI 28)
Championship: Tulsa/UTEP
Estimated RPI:
21 - Win the Tournament
30 - Championship Game Appearance
39 - Semi-Finals Appearance
51 - Quarter-Finals Loss
What they need:
After finishing the regular season poorly, Memphis is NIT bound if they lose in the quarterfinals of the CUSA Tournament. Obviously, winning the tournament would earn them an auto-bid, so there are two possible scenarios that would leave Memphis on the bubble. Fortunately for them, they are a combined 4-0 against their first 2 likely opponents. (Southern Miss & UAB)
If Memphis makes it to the semifinals and loses to UAB, they will have earned their 10th win against the top 100. I know that I already spend some time talking about why their number of top 100 wins is misleading, but something tells me that 10 top 100 wins will be a hard statistic for the Committee to ignore. With an RPI of 39, Memphis wouldn't be a lock, but they would have a decent shot on Selection Sunday, assuming there aren't too many "bid stealers" around the country. The biggest problem for Memphis would be their poor finish toward the end of the year. A 1-1 performance in the CUSA Tournament would still leave them 7-6 in their final 13 games.
A visit to the championship game and a competitive loss to Tulsa or UTEP would give Memphis an almost guaranteed atlarge bid. They would have erased their poor regular season finish, would have 11 top 50 wins, and with an RPI of 30, just wouldn't have many weaknesses on their overall profile. Big wins might be their weakest point, but they would have beaten bubble hopeful UAB for a 3rd time when they took them out in the semis. If Memphis makes it to the championship game and then does get blown out, who knows what the Committee would do with them. Their finish down the stretch could be considered good or bad, depending on how you look at it, and no team wants to leave the floor for the last time as a blowout loser.
As for chances of all of this happening, given Memphis' season sweep over UAB and Southern Miss, I think they have a reasonable chance at winning a couple games. I will say 60% chance at making the semis and 25% chance of making the finals. Memphis' atlarge hopes could take a shot if Tulane upsets Southern Miss or the 8/9 winner takes out UAB in the quarterfinals. Memphis needs quality wins to show that they have gotten their season back on track. Overall, I'll give Memphis a 15% chance of being atlarge worthy on Selection Sunday.
Summary:
Memphis needs 1 more win to be on the bubble and 2 more wins to be close to locking up an atlarge bid.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Full Bracket Tomorrow
It looks like I'm not going to get my next Full Bracket complete until tomorrow, so stay tuned...
Projections Through 3/6/11
This weekend started the process of handing out automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament. Saturday saw 3 tournament finals, with Belmont, UNC Asheville, and Morehead State all punching their tickets for the Big Dance. Sunday brought an interesting twist with Indiana State winning the MVC Tournament over Missouri State. As I've mentioned before, Missouri State has been one of the most snubbed teams in the last decade, so it will be interesting to see how things play out this year. Will they once again face disappointment? I have to admit that it doesn't look good for the Bears at this point, and they need to be rooting hard against any "bid stealers" over the next week.
I had a small change of heart about Harvard after their win over Princeton on Saturday. They are in an interesting situation where they may have clenched the Ivy League auto-bid, but they won't know until Tuesday. That is because there is no conference tournament in the Ivy League, and Princeton has a chance to tie for the regular season title with a win at Penn on Tuesday night. In that case, the tie breaker is a one game playoff, meaning Harvard may or may not play Princeton one more time. If they do have a playoff and they lose, I think it is doubtful that Harvard would receive an atlarge bid, but I am going to leave that possibility open and give it a 5% chance of happening.
Tonight I will post another Full Bracket update. I will post projections each day this week until my final Full Bracket on Selection Sunday.
Bubbles that burst this weekend:
Cleveland State
Southern Mississippi
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Auto Bids (4 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big South - UNC Asheville
MVC - Indiana State
OVC - Morehead State
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (Tourney is over and only Missouri State has a small chance at an atlarge bid)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
CUSA (UAB is probably in no matter what. Memphis and Marshall are still alive with slim hopes)
Horizon (Butler could use up an atlarge spot if needed)
WAC (Utah State could use up an atlarge spot if needed)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 10 + 37 = 50
Fighting For #1 Seeds (5):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh
Fighting For Protected Seeds (17):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, Purdue, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Villanova, West Virginia, Wisconsin
Other Locks (12):
Cincinnati, Florida State, George Mason, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Xavier
Bubble (16 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Gonzaga - 95%
UAB - 95%
Washington - 95%
Butler - 90%
Illinois - 90%
Utah State - 90%
Georgia - 75%
Richmond - 75%
St. Mary’s - 75%
Marquette - 70%
Michigan - 70%
Michigan State - 60%
Boston College - 55%
Clemson - 50%
Alabama - 40%
Colorado - 35%
----- CUT LINE -----
Virginia Tech - 30%
Washington State - 25%
Memphis - 15%
USC - 15%
Baylor - 10%
Marshall - 10%
Missouri State - 10%
Colorado State - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Nebraska - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Cleveland State (24-8, RPI 41) - 0-5 vs the top 50
Virginia Commonwealth (23-10, RPI 48) - 3 losses outside top 150
Princeton (22-6, RPI 52) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Southern Mississippi (18-9, RPI 53) - Lost their last 3 regular season games and finished 5th in CUSA
Penn State (16-13, RPI 54) - 14 losses including a home loss to Maine would be too much to overcome
Oakland (22-9, RPI 57) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
UTEP (22-8, RPI 59) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Wichita State (23-8, RPI 60) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 75
I had a small change of heart about Harvard after their win over Princeton on Saturday. They are in an interesting situation where they may have clenched the Ivy League auto-bid, but they won't know until Tuesday. That is because there is no conference tournament in the Ivy League, and Princeton has a chance to tie for the regular season title with a win at Penn on Tuesday night. In that case, the tie breaker is a one game playoff, meaning Harvard may or may not play Princeton one more time. If they do have a playoff and they lose, I think it is doubtful that Harvard would receive an atlarge bid, but I am going to leave that possibility open and give it a 5% chance of happening.
Tonight I will post another Full Bracket update. I will post projections each day this week until my final Full Bracket on Selection Sunday.
Bubbles that burst this weekend:
Cleveland State
Southern Mississippi
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Auto Bids (4 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big South - UNC Asheville
MVC - Indiana State
OVC - Morehead State
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (Tourney is over and only Missouri State has a small chance at an atlarge bid)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
CUSA (UAB is probably in no matter what. Memphis and Marshall are still alive with slim hopes)
Horizon (Butler could use up an atlarge spot if needed)
WAC (Utah State could use up an atlarge spot if needed)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 10 + 37 = 50
Fighting For #1 Seeds (5):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh
Fighting For Protected Seeds (17):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, Purdue, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Villanova, West Virginia, Wisconsin
Other Locks (12):
Cincinnati, Florida State, George Mason, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Xavier
Bubble (16 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Gonzaga - 95%
UAB - 95%
Washington - 95%
Butler - 90%
Illinois - 90%
Utah State - 90%
Georgia - 75%
Richmond - 75%
St. Mary’s - 75%
Marquette - 70%
Michigan - 70%
Michigan State - 60%
Boston College - 55%
Clemson - 50%
Alabama - 40%
Colorado - 35%
----- CUT LINE -----
Virginia Tech - 30%
Washington State - 25%
Memphis - 15%
USC - 15%
Baylor - 10%
Marshall - 10%
Missouri State - 10%
Colorado State - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Nebraska - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Cleveland State (24-8, RPI 41) - 0-5 vs the top 50
Virginia Commonwealth (23-10, RPI 48) - 3 losses outside top 150
Princeton (22-6, RPI 52) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Southern Mississippi (18-9, RPI 53) - Lost their last 3 regular season games and finished 5th in CUSA
Penn State (16-13, RPI 54) - 14 losses including a home loss to Maine would be too much to overcome
Oakland (22-9, RPI 57) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
UTEP (22-8, RPI 59) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Wichita State (23-8, RPI 60) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 75
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Projections Through 3/4/11
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (4):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
CUSA (1 in as of today, 3 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Pac 10: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 10 + 37 = 51
Fighting For #1 Seeds (7):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (14):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (13):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Kansas State, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNLV, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (17 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Georgia - 90%
Gonzaga - 90%
Florida State - 85%
UAB - 85%
Marquette - 80%
Utah State - 80%
Illinois - 75%
Michigan State - 75%
Butler - 65%
Boston College - 55%
St. Mary’s - 55%
Richmond - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Michigan - 45%
Washington State - 40%
Alabama - 30%
Missouri State - 30%
----- CUT LINE -----
Clemson - 25%
Baylor - 20%
Colorado State - 20%
Colorado - 15%
Nebraska - 15%
Cleveland State - 15%
Memphis - 10%
Marshall - 5%
Southern Mississippi - 5%
USC - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Harvard (20-5, RPI 43) - A loss would drop them to the mid-50s of the RPI
Wichita State (23-7, RPI 50) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 80
Belmont (29-4, RPI 51) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Central Florida (18-9, RPI 52) - Started 13-0, but are 5-9 since then
Princeton (22-5, RPI 53) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Oakland (21-9, RPI 54) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
Oklahoma State (18-11, RPI 56) - Currently 6-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Penn State (15-13, RPI 59) - 14 losses including a home loss to Maine would be too much to overcome
UTEP (21-8, RPI 61) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, RPI 64) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 50
Minnesota (17-12, RPI 65) - Has now lost 8 of their last 9 games
California (16-13, RPI 68) - Not enough big wins to counter a 14th loss
Miami FL (18-12, RPI 69) - Currently 6-9 in the ACC
Drexel (21-9, RPI 70) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (4):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
CUSA (1 in as of today, 3 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Pac 10: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 10 + 37 = 51
Fighting For #1 Seeds (7):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (14):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (13):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Kansas State, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNLV, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (17 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Georgia - 90%
Gonzaga - 90%
Florida State - 85%
UAB - 85%
Marquette - 80%
Utah State - 80%
Illinois - 75%
Michigan State - 75%
Butler - 65%
Boston College - 55%
St. Mary’s - 55%
Richmond - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Michigan - 45%
Washington State - 40%
Alabama - 30%
Missouri State - 30%
----- CUT LINE -----
Clemson - 25%
Baylor - 20%
Colorado State - 20%
Colorado - 15%
Nebraska - 15%
Cleveland State - 15%
Memphis - 10%
Marshall - 5%
Southern Mississippi - 5%
USC - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Harvard (20-5, RPI 43) - A loss would drop them to the mid-50s of the RPI
Wichita State (23-7, RPI 50) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 80
Belmont (29-4, RPI 51) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Central Florida (18-9, RPI 52) - Started 13-0, but are 5-9 since then
Princeton (22-5, RPI 53) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Oakland (21-9, RPI 54) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
Oklahoma State (18-11, RPI 56) - Currently 6-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Penn State (15-13, RPI 59) - 14 losses including a home loss to Maine would be too much to overcome
UTEP (21-8, RPI 61) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, RPI 64) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 50
Minnesota (17-12, RPI 65) - Has now lost 8 of their last 9 games
California (16-13, RPI 68) - Not enough big wins to counter a 14th loss
Miami FL (18-12, RPI 69) - Currently 6-9 in the ACC
Drexel (21-9, RPI 70) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Friday, March 4, 2011
Team of the Day - UAB - 85% Chance
Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes. I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid. If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.
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Conference USA currently has 7 teams in the top 100, yet there isn't a single NCAA lock in the group. In fact, many bracketologists, including ESPN's Joe Lunardi, think it will be a 1-bid league. Has any conference ever sent 6 teams to the NIT? If not, this year could be the first.
Amidst the dogpile at the top, UAB has managed to slip away from the pack, and at 11-4, they have clenched the regular season title outright. They are 21-7 overall with an RPI of 28. Good wins out of conference are few and far between, with home victories over Kent State and Virginia Commonwealth topping the list. However, with a very solid RPI and only 1 loss outside the top 100, UAB looks to be in very good shape for an atlarge bid.
Remaining Schedule:
East Carolina (13-13, RPI 115)
Estimated RPI:
29 - Finish 1-0
34 - Finish 0-1
What they need:
Unlike many bubble teams trying to get in despite their RPI, UAB's RPI is probably their best selling point. They have just 1 top 50 win, but they have 7 more wins vs 51-100. Those wins may not impress the Committee on an individual basis, but as a whole, they really add up. If UAB can avoid a bad loss to East Carolina tomorrow, they are probably in the field of 68. At that point, they would have won the CUSA regular season by 2 games. They would also be guaranteed a final RPI in the mid-30s at worst.
Assuming UAB beats East Carolina, one win in the CUSA Tourney should be more than enough to lock up their bid. As a #1 seed, they will play the winner of the 8/9 game. This will be a team outside the top 100, and UAB should be a heavy favorite. A loss here wouldn't be the end of UAB's hopes, although it would give them a little concern on Selection Sunday. I will give UAB a 75% chance of making it to the semis with both a win on Senior Night and a win in the CUSA Quarterfinals.
If UAB loses to East Carolina on Senior Night, a win in the first round of the CUSA Tourney is imperative. To be safe, 2 wins would help.
Summary:
UAB needs 1 more win to feel good about their chances of being selected on Selection Sunday. 2 more wins and they are a lock.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Conference USA currently has 7 teams in the top 100, yet there isn't a single NCAA lock in the group. In fact, many bracketologists, including ESPN's Joe Lunardi, think it will be a 1-bid league. Has any conference ever sent 6 teams to the NIT? If not, this year could be the first.
Amidst the dogpile at the top, UAB has managed to slip away from the pack, and at 11-4, they have clenched the regular season title outright. They are 21-7 overall with an RPI of 28. Good wins out of conference are few and far between, with home victories over Kent State and Virginia Commonwealth topping the list. However, with a very solid RPI and only 1 loss outside the top 100, UAB looks to be in very good shape for an atlarge bid.
Remaining Schedule:
East Carolina (13-13, RPI 115)
Estimated RPI:
29 - Finish 1-0
34 - Finish 0-1
What they need:
Unlike many bubble teams trying to get in despite their RPI, UAB's RPI is probably their best selling point. They have just 1 top 50 win, but they have 7 more wins vs 51-100. Those wins may not impress the Committee on an individual basis, but as a whole, they really add up. If UAB can avoid a bad loss to East Carolina tomorrow, they are probably in the field of 68. At that point, they would have won the CUSA regular season by 2 games. They would also be guaranteed a final RPI in the mid-30s at worst.
Assuming UAB beats East Carolina, one win in the CUSA Tourney should be more than enough to lock up their bid. As a #1 seed, they will play the winner of the 8/9 game. This will be a team outside the top 100, and UAB should be a heavy favorite. A loss here wouldn't be the end of UAB's hopes, although it would give them a little concern on Selection Sunday. I will give UAB a 75% chance of making it to the semis with both a win on Senior Night and a win in the CUSA Quarterfinals.
If UAB loses to East Carolina on Senior Night, a win in the first round of the CUSA Tourney is imperative. To be safe, 2 wins would help.
Summary:
UAB needs 1 more win to feel good about their chances of being selected on Selection Sunday. 2 more wins and they are a lock.
New Full Bracket Is Up
I have updated my full bracket to include games through tonight, Friday March 4th, 2011. Yes, I know that there are still games being played tonight, but none of their outcomes will affect the bracket.
You can view my bracket by clicking the tab at the top of the page or by simply clicking Here
You can view my bracket by clicking the tab at the top of the page or by simply clicking Here
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