These projections will change very little between now and this afternoon when I make my final bracket. The committee has shown a history of almost ignoring games played on Selection Sunday. Any changes in the next several hours will more likely be due to a re-evaluation of teams on my part.
Auto Bids (27 of 31 claimed):
America East - Vermont
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big 12 - Missouri
Big East - Louisville
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - UNC Asheville
Big West - Long Beach State
CAA - Virginia Commonwealth
CUSA - Memphis
Horizon - Detroit
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Loyola-MD
MAC - Ohio
MEAC - Norfolk State
Mountain West - New Mexico
MVC - Creighton
NEC - Long Island
OVC - Murray State
Pac 12 - Colorado
Patriot - Lehigh
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Lamar
Summit - South Dakota State
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
SWAC - Mississippi Valley State
WAC - New Mexico State
WCC - St. Mary's
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 9, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 6 (Min: 6, Max: 6)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 6, Max: 6)
ACC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 4, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 3, Max: 3)
Pac 12:. . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 2)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 2)
Colonial:. . . 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
The Seeds
Ranked in order within each seed line, teams in bold have clenched auto-bids
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Kansas
2 - Ohio State, Michigan State, Missouri, Duke
3 - Baylor, Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown
4 - Wisconsin, Indiana, Florida State, Louisville
5 - Wichita State, Florida, Vanderbilt, Temple
6 - UNLV, New Mexico, Notre Dame, San Diego State
7 - Cincinnati, Creighton, Murray State, Memphis
8 - St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Iowa State, Kansas State
9 - Purdue, Connecticut, St. Louis, Alabama
10 - Virginia, West Virginia, Southern Mississippi, California
11 - Harvard, BYU, Colorado State, Xavier
12 - Texas, Virginia Commonwealth, South Florida, North Carolina State, Seton Hall, Drexel
13 - Long Beach State, Colorado, Belmont, New Mexico State
14 - South Dakota State, Davidson, Ohio, Montana
15 - Lehigh, Loyola-MD, Detroit, UNC Asheville
16 - Lamar, Long Island, Vermont (Play-In), Norfolk State (Play-In), Mississippi Valley State (Play-In), Western Kentucky (Play-In)
Last 6 In:
Xavier
Texas
South Florida
North Carolina State
Seton Hall
Drexel
First 6 Out:
Mississippi State
Washington
Miami-FL
Arizona
Tennessee
Northwestern
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Friday, March 9, 2012
Friday's Games: 3/9/12
In order to avoid making a bunch of posts today, I will simply be updating this post throughout the day with the latest scores and commentary. Numbers in parenthesis are my projected seeds coming into the day. B=Bubble
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Completed
(1) North Carolina vs Maryland - UNC won easily and maintains their spot as a #1 seed.
(2) Michigan State vs Iowa - Michigan State blew out Iowa, should secure them as a 2 seed at worst.
(5) Temple vs UMass - Temple fell to UMass. Watch for A10 as a possible bid-stealing conference.
(1) Kentucky vs LSU - Kentucky won by 9, they were already a lock for a #1 seed anyway.
(4) Indiana vs (4) Wisconsin - Wisconsin won & moved into discussion for 3 seed, Indiana fell to 4/5.
(B) St. Joseph's vs St. Bonaventure - St. Joe's bubble popped today.
(9) Virginia vs (B) NC State - NC State gets the win to stay alive, probably needs another tomorrow.
(5) Florida vs (9) Alabama - Florida won and might move up to a 4. Alabama will be a 10 at worst.
(10) Southern Miss vs Marshall - Southern Miss lost and will now feel a few butterflys on Sunday.
(3) Michigan vs Minnesota - Michigan squeaked out a win and clenched a top 3 seed today.
(9) St. Louis vs La Salle - St. Louis is still looking at the 8/9 game after today's win.
(8) Memphis vs (B) Central Florida - UCF's bubble popped tonight.
(1) Syracuse vs (8) Cincinnati - Cincy's big upset will propel them to a nice seed. Syracuse still a #1.
(2) Duke vs Virginia Tech - Duke's win keeps them alive in hunt for #1 seed.
(1) Kansas vs (2) Baylor - Baylor upset Kansas, but it is unlikely that either team's seed will change.
(B) Tennessee vs (B) Mississippi - Tennessee's bubble popped while Mississippi is still hanging on.
(2) Ohio State vs (8) Purdue - OSU will be no worse than a 2, Purdue is probably stuck in 8/9 gm.
(7) San Diego State vs (11) Colorado State - Colorado State should still be safe despite loss.
(B) Arizona vs Oregon State - Arizona keeps hopes alive and ends Oregone State's bid stealing run.
(B) Xavier vs Dayton - Xavier is now a lock, if Dayton had bubble hopes, they are gone now.
(2) Missouri vs (11) Texas - Missou still has a slim chance at a #1 seed, Texas should still be safe.
(4) Florida State vs (B) Miami-FL - Miami is headed for the NIT.
(5) UNLV vs (7) New Mexico - There will be a bunch of Mountain West teams in the 5-7 seed range.
(4) Louisville vs (6) Notre Dame - 2 more teams also just fighting for seeding.
(6) Vanderbilt vs Georgia - Vandy looking to give SEC another protected seed.
(10) California vs Colorado - Cal probably still gets in, but Pac 12 has no guarantee of any atlarge bids.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Completed
(1) North Carolina vs Maryland - UNC won easily and maintains their spot as a #1 seed.
(2) Michigan State vs Iowa - Michigan State blew out Iowa, should secure them as a 2 seed at worst.
(5) Temple vs UMass - Temple fell to UMass. Watch for A10 as a possible bid-stealing conference.
(1) Kentucky vs LSU - Kentucky won by 9, they were already a lock for a #1 seed anyway.
(4) Indiana vs (4) Wisconsin - Wisconsin won & moved into discussion for 3 seed, Indiana fell to 4/5.
(B) St. Joseph's vs St. Bonaventure - St. Joe's bubble popped today.
(9) Virginia vs (B) NC State - NC State gets the win to stay alive, probably needs another tomorrow.
(5) Florida vs (9) Alabama - Florida won and might move up to a 4. Alabama will be a 10 at worst.
(10) Southern Miss vs Marshall - Southern Miss lost and will now feel a few butterflys on Sunday.
(3) Michigan vs Minnesota - Michigan squeaked out a win and clenched a top 3 seed today.
(9) St. Louis vs La Salle - St. Louis is still looking at the 8/9 game after today's win.
(8) Memphis vs (B) Central Florida - UCF's bubble popped tonight.
(1) Syracuse vs (8) Cincinnati - Cincy's big upset will propel them to a nice seed. Syracuse still a #1.
(2) Duke vs Virginia Tech - Duke's win keeps them alive in hunt for #1 seed.
(1) Kansas vs (2) Baylor - Baylor upset Kansas, but it is unlikely that either team's seed will change.
(B) Tennessee vs (B) Mississippi - Tennessee's bubble popped while Mississippi is still hanging on.
(2) Ohio State vs (8) Purdue - OSU will be no worse than a 2, Purdue is probably stuck in 8/9 gm.
(7) San Diego State vs (11) Colorado State - Colorado State should still be safe despite loss.
(B) Arizona vs Oregon State - Arizona keeps hopes alive and ends Oregone State's bid stealing run.
(B) Xavier vs Dayton - Xavier is now a lock, if Dayton had bubble hopes, they are gone now.
(2) Missouri vs (11) Texas - Missou still has a slim chance at a #1 seed, Texas should still be safe.
(4) Florida State vs (B) Miami-FL - Miami is headed for the NIT.
(5) UNLV vs (7) New Mexico - There will be a bunch of Mountain West teams in the 5-7 seed range.
(4) Louisville vs (6) Notre Dame - 2 more teams also just fighting for seeding.
(6) Vanderbilt vs Georgia - Vandy looking to give SEC another protected seed.
(10) California vs Colorado - Cal probably still gets in, but Pac 12 has no guarantee of any atlarge bids.
Full Bracket Link Now Active
My "Full Bracket" Link is now updated with a full rundown of seed projections. You might find it easier to look at than my blog post. You can find it by either clicking the link at the top right corner of the blog, or by clicking here.
Also, I am going to be updated the blog rather frequently between now and the Selection Show on Sunday. Check back often for the latest projections and commentary.
Also, I am going to be updated the blog rather frequently between now and the Selection Show on Sunday. Check back often for the latest projections and commentary.
Projections Through 3/8/12
Auto Bids (15 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - UNC Asheville
CAA - Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon - Detroit
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Loyola-MD
MVC - Creighton
NEC - Long Island
OVC - Murray State
Patriot - Lehigh
Southern - Davidson
Summit - South Dakota State
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WCC - St. Mary's
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (19):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Colonial (VCU gets the autobid, Drexel still waiting to see if they get atlarge)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 6 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 2)
Pac 12:. . . . 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Colonial:. . . 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
19 One-Bid Leagues + 12 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 12 + 37 = 51
The Seeds
Ranked in order within each seed line, teams in bold have clenched auto-bids
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina
2 - Ohio State, Duke, Missouri, Michigan State
3 - Baylor, Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Louisville, Florida State
5 - Temple, Wichita State, Florida, UNLV
6 - Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Murray State, Creighton
7 - New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga
8 - Memphis, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Purdue
9 - Kansas State, Virginia, St. Louis, Alabama
10 - Southern Mississippi, Connecticut, California, Harvard
11 - West Virginia, Colorado State, BYU, Texas
12 - Virginia Commonwealth, Xavier, South Florida, Washington (Play-In), Mississippi State (Play-In)
13 - Seton Hall (Play-In), Drexel (Play-In), Long Beach State, Nevada, Belmont
14 - South Dakota State, Davidson, Akron, Montana
15 - Lehigh, Loyola-MD, Detroit, UNC Asheville
16 - Lamar, Long Island, Stony Brook (Play-In), Norfolk State (Play-In), Mississippi Valley State (Play-In), Western Kentucky (Play-In)
Last 8 In:
BYU (should be safe, still rooting against bubble teams)
Texas (should be safe, can remove all doubt with win over Missouri today)
Xavier (Likely need to beat Dayton in A10 Tourney today to feel safe)
South Florida (probably still in field after loss to Notre Dame, still rooting against bubble teams)
Washington (terrible loss to Oregon State might end up costing them their chance to dance)
Mississippi State (probably still in field after loss to Georgia, still rooting against bubble teams)
Seton Hall (lost to Louisville in Big East 2nd round game, going to be right on the Bubble on Sunday)
Drexel (lost in CAA final, going to be right on the Bubble on Sunday)
First 9 Out:
Miami-FL (Likely need to beat Florida State today in ACC Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Tennessee (Need to beat Mississippi today to stay alive for atlarge, probably need to reach SEC finals)
Northwestern (hard to see how they get a bid after losing to Minnesota)
Arizona (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
North Carolina State (Must beat Virginia to keep hopes alive, need finals appearance to feel safe)
St. Joseph's (Need to reach finals in A10 Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Mississippi (Need to reach finals in SEC Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Central Florida (Need to reach finals in CUSA Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Oregon (Losing to Colorado all but burst their bubble)
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - UNC Asheville
CAA - Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon - Detroit
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Loyola-MD
MVC - Creighton
NEC - Long Island
OVC - Murray State
Patriot - Lehigh
Southern - Davidson
Summit - South Dakota State
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WCC - St. Mary's
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (19):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Colonial (VCU gets the autobid, Drexel still waiting to see if they get atlarge)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 6 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 2)
Pac 12:. . . . 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Colonial:. . . 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
19 One-Bid Leagues + 12 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 12 + 37 = 51
The Seeds
Ranked in order within each seed line, teams in bold have clenched auto-bids
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina
2 - Ohio State, Duke, Missouri, Michigan State
3 - Baylor, Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Louisville, Florida State
5 - Temple, Wichita State, Florida, UNLV
6 - Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Murray State, Creighton
7 - New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga
8 - Memphis, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Purdue
9 - Kansas State, Virginia, St. Louis, Alabama
10 - Southern Mississippi, Connecticut, California, Harvard
11 - West Virginia, Colorado State, BYU, Texas
12 - Virginia Commonwealth, Xavier, South Florida, Washington (Play-In), Mississippi State (Play-In)
13 - Seton Hall (Play-In), Drexel (Play-In), Long Beach State, Nevada, Belmont
14 - South Dakota State, Davidson, Akron, Montana
15 - Lehigh, Loyola-MD, Detroit, UNC Asheville
16 - Lamar, Long Island, Stony Brook (Play-In), Norfolk State (Play-In), Mississippi Valley State (Play-In), Western Kentucky (Play-In)
Last 8 In:
BYU (should be safe, still rooting against bubble teams)
Texas (should be safe, can remove all doubt with win over Missouri today)
Xavier (Likely need to beat Dayton in A10 Tourney today to feel safe)
South Florida (probably still in field after loss to Notre Dame, still rooting against bubble teams)
Washington (terrible loss to Oregon State might end up costing them their chance to dance)
Mississippi State (probably still in field after loss to Georgia, still rooting against bubble teams)
Seton Hall (lost to Louisville in Big East 2nd round game, going to be right on the Bubble on Sunday)
Drexel (lost in CAA final, going to be right on the Bubble on Sunday)
First 9 Out:
Miami-FL (Likely need to beat Florida State today in ACC Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Tennessee (Need to beat Mississippi today to stay alive for atlarge, probably need to reach SEC finals)
Northwestern (hard to see how they get a bid after losing to Minnesota)
Arizona (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
North Carolina State (Must beat Virginia to keep hopes alive, need finals appearance to feel safe)
St. Joseph's (Need to reach finals in A10 Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Mississippi (Need to reach finals in SEC Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Central Florida (Need to reach finals in CUSA Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Oregon (Losing to Colorado all but burst their bubble)
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Projections Through 3/7/12
Auto Bids (15 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - UNC Asheville
CAA - Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon - Detroit
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Loyola-MD
MVC - Creighton
NEC - Long Island
OVC - Murray State
Patriot - Lehigh
Southern - Davidson
Summit - South Dakota State
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WCC - St. Mary's
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (19):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Colonial (Drexel)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . . 9 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 3 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 2)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 11 + 37 = 50
The Seeds
Ranked in order within each seed line, auto-bid winners in bold
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina
2 - Ohio State, Duke, Missouri, Michigan State
3 - Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown, Baylor
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple
5 - Louisville, Wichita State, Florida, UNLV
6 - Vanderbilt, Murray State, Creighton, Notre Dame
7 - New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga
8 - Memphis, Iowa State, Kansas State, Purdue
9 - Virginia, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Alabama
10 - Southern Mississippi, Connecticut, California, Harvard
11 - West Virginia, Mississippi State, BYU, Washington
12 - South Florida, Northwestern, Virginia Commonwealth, Colorado State (Play-In), Xavier (Play-In),
13 - Texas (Play-In), Oregon (Play-In), South Dakota State, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid
14 - Belmont, Davidson, Lehigh, Auto-Bid
15 - Montana, Loyola-MD, Detroit, Auto-Bid
16 - UNC Asheville, Long Island, Western Kentucky (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In)
Last 8 In:
BYU (lost in MWC semis, rooting against fellow bubble teams still playing who could pass them)
Washington (#1 seed in Pac 12 Tourney but lacking quality wins, need to reach finals to feel safe)
Northwestern (must beat Minnesota to remain in discussion, must then beat Michigan to feel safe)
South Florida (a bad loss to Villanova/Rutgers would pop their bubble, may also need to beat ND)
Colorado State (Likely need to beat TCU in MWC Tourney to feel safe)
Xavier (Likely need to beat Dayton/George Washington in A10 Tourney to feel safe)
Texas (Likely need to beat Iowa State in Big 12 Tourney to feel safe)
Oregon (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
First 9 Out:
Seton Hall (lost to Louisville in Big East 2nd round game, probably a long shot for an atlarge bid)
Miami-FL (Likely need to win 2 games in ACC Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Tennessee (Need to reach SEC semi-finals for atlarge chance, probably need to reach SEC finals)
Drexel (lost in CAA final, rooting against fellow bubble teams still playing)
Arizona (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
North Carolina State (Need 2 ACC Tourney wins for atlarge chance, finals appearance to feel safe)
St. Joseph's (Need to reach finals in A10 Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Mississippi (Need to reach finals in SEC Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Central Florida (Need to reach finals in CUSA Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - UNC Asheville
CAA - Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon - Detroit
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Loyola-MD
MVC - Creighton
NEC - Long Island
OVC - Murray State
Patriot - Lehigh
Southern - Davidson
Summit - South Dakota State
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WCC - St. Mary's
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (19):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Colonial (Drexel)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . . 9 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 3 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 2)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 11 + 37 = 50
The Seeds
Ranked in order within each seed line, auto-bid winners in bold
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina
2 - Ohio State, Duke, Missouri, Michigan State
3 - Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown, Baylor
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple
5 - Louisville, Wichita State, Florida, UNLV
6 - Vanderbilt, Murray State, Creighton, Notre Dame
7 - New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga
8 - Memphis, Iowa State, Kansas State, Purdue
9 - Virginia, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Alabama
10 - Southern Mississippi, Connecticut, California, Harvard
11 - West Virginia, Mississippi State, BYU, Washington
12 - South Florida, Northwestern, Virginia Commonwealth, Colorado State (Play-In), Xavier (Play-In),
13 - Texas (Play-In), Oregon (Play-In), South Dakota State, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid
14 - Belmont, Davidson, Lehigh, Auto-Bid
15 - Montana, Loyola-MD, Detroit, Auto-Bid
16 - UNC Asheville, Long Island, Western Kentucky (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In)
Last 8 In:
BYU (lost in MWC semis, rooting against fellow bubble teams still playing who could pass them)
Washington (#1 seed in Pac 12 Tourney but lacking quality wins, need to reach finals to feel safe)
Northwestern (must beat Minnesota to remain in discussion, must then beat Michigan to feel safe)
South Florida (a bad loss to Villanova/Rutgers would pop their bubble, may also need to beat ND)
Colorado State (Likely need to beat TCU in MWC Tourney to feel safe)
Xavier (Likely need to beat Dayton/George Washington in A10 Tourney to feel safe)
Texas (Likely need to beat Iowa State in Big 12 Tourney to feel safe)
Oregon (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
First 9 Out:
Seton Hall (lost to Louisville in Big East 2nd round game, probably a long shot for an atlarge bid)
Miami-FL (Likely need to win 2 games in ACC Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Tennessee (Need to reach SEC semi-finals for atlarge chance, probably need to reach SEC finals)
Drexel (lost in CAA final, rooting against fellow bubble teams still playing)
Arizona (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
North Carolina State (Need 2 ACC Tourney wins for atlarge chance, finals appearance to feel safe)
St. Joseph's (Need to reach finals in A10 Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Mississippi (Need to reach finals in SEC Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Central Florida (Need to reach finals in CUSA Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Projections Through 3/6/12
Auto Bids (12 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big South - UNC Asheville
CAA - Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon - Detroit
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Loyola-MD
MVC - Creighton
OVC - Murray State
Southern - Davidson
Summit - South Dakota State
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WCC - St. Mary's
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (19):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Colonial (Drexel)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 2)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 11 + 37 = 50
The Seeds
Ranked in order within each seed line, auto-bid winners in bold
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina
2 - Ohio State, Duke, Missouri, Michigan State
3 - Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown, Baylor
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple
5 - Wichita State, Louisville, Florida, UNLV
6 - Vanderbilt, Murray State, Creighton, Notre Dame
7 - New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga
8 - Memphis, Iowa State, Kansas State, Purdue
9 - Virginia, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Alabama
10 - Southern Mississippi, California, Harvard, West Virginia
11 - Connecticut, Mississippi State, BYU, Washington
12 - Northwestern, South Florida, Colorado State (Play-In), Xavier (Play-In), Texas (Play-In), Seton Hall (Play-In)
13 - Virginia Commonwealth, Belmont, Davidson, South Dakota State
14 - Loyola-MD, Detroit, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid
15 - UNC Asheville, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid
16 - Western Kentucky, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In)
Last 8 In:
BYU (lost in MWC semis, rooting against fellow bubble teams still playing who could pass them)
Washington (#1 seed in Pac 12 Tourney but lacking quality wins, need to reach finals to feel safe)
Northwestern (must beat Minnesota to remain in discussion, must then beat Michigan to feel safe)
South Florida (a bad loss to Villanova/Rutgers would pop their bubble, may also need to beat ND)
Colorado State (Likely need to beat TCU in MWC Tourney to feel safe)
Xavier (Likely need to beat Dayton/George Washington in A10 Tourney to feel safe)
Seton Hall (a win against Louisville would secure their bid)
Texas (Likely need to beat Iowa State in Big 12 Tourney to feel safe)
First 9 Out:
Oregon (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
Miami-FL (Likely need to win 2 games in ACC Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Tennessee (Need to reach SEC semi-finals for atlarge chance, probably need to reach SEC finals)
Drexel (lost in CAA final, rooting against fellow bubble teams still playing)
Arizona (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
North Carolina State (Need 2 ACC Tourney wins for atlarge chance, finals appearance to feel safe)
St. Joseph's (Need to reach finals in A10 Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Mississippi (Need to reach finals in SEC Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Central Florida (Need to reach finals in CUSA Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big South - UNC Asheville
CAA - Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon - Detroit
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Loyola-MD
MVC - Creighton
OVC - Murray State
Southern - Davidson
Summit - South Dakota State
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WCC - St. Mary's
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (19):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Colonial (Drexel)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 2)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 11 + 37 = 50
The Seeds
Ranked in order within each seed line, auto-bid winners in bold
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina
2 - Ohio State, Duke, Missouri, Michigan State
3 - Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown, Baylor
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple
5 - Wichita State, Louisville, Florida, UNLV
6 - Vanderbilt, Murray State, Creighton, Notre Dame
7 - New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga
8 - Memphis, Iowa State, Kansas State, Purdue
9 - Virginia, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Alabama
10 - Southern Mississippi, California, Harvard, West Virginia
11 - Connecticut, Mississippi State, BYU, Washington
12 - Northwestern, South Florida, Colorado State (Play-In), Xavier (Play-In), Texas (Play-In), Seton Hall (Play-In)
13 - Virginia Commonwealth, Belmont, Davidson, South Dakota State
14 - Loyola-MD, Detroit, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid
15 - UNC Asheville, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid
16 - Western Kentucky, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In)
Last 8 In:
BYU (lost in MWC semis, rooting against fellow bubble teams still playing who could pass them)
Washington (#1 seed in Pac 12 Tourney but lacking quality wins, need to reach finals to feel safe)
Northwestern (must beat Minnesota to remain in discussion, must then beat Michigan to feel safe)
South Florida (a bad loss to Villanova/Rutgers would pop their bubble, may also need to beat ND)
Colorado State (Likely need to beat TCU in MWC Tourney to feel safe)
Xavier (Likely need to beat Dayton/George Washington in A10 Tourney to feel safe)
Seton Hall (a win against Louisville would secure their bid)
Texas (Likely need to beat Iowa State in Big 12 Tourney to feel safe)
First 9 Out:
Oregon (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
Miami-FL (Likely need to win 2 games in ACC Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Tennessee (Need to reach SEC semi-finals for atlarge chance, probably need to reach SEC finals)
Drexel (lost in CAA final, rooting against fellow bubble teams still playing)
Arizona (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
North Carolina State (Need 2 ACC Tourney wins for atlarge chance, finals appearance to feel safe)
St. Joseph's (Need to reach finals in A10 Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Mississippi (Need to reach finals in SEC Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Central Florida (Need to reach finals in CUSA Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Projections Through 3/5/12
Oral Roberts fell to Western Illinois last night in the semi-finals of the Summit League Tourney. A bad loss like that was not what they needed, and it seems hard to envision the Golden Eagles anywhere but the NIT at this point.
In the CAA, Virginia Commonwealth ended Drexel's 19 game winning streak and claimed the auto-bid. Drexel will be an interesting bubble team. Although they were 27-6, the regular season winner of the 15th rated conference, and on a huge winning streak before last night, they also have a mere 4 top 100 wins with only 1 against a top 50 team. Their SOS (over 200) would be the highest in the last 10 years to receive an atlarge bid.
I adjusted Washington downward after re-evaluating their resume. Their biggest win (@ Arizona) took a big hit when Wildcats lost to RPI #248 Arizona State on Sunday. Washington now lacks a win over any likely tournament teams and will probably need to make a finals appearance in the Pac 12 Tournament in order to secure their bid. Since they are the 1 seed, I think they have a reasonable chance of making it that far, so I decided to place Washington as my last 11 seed for the time being.
Finally, I moved the Ivy League out of the "Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues" category. If Penn manages to win at Princeton tonight, they will force a 1 game playoff with Harvard for the Ivy League championship. Should Penn win that game as well as earn the auto-bid, Harvard might still be in the picture for an atlarge. Penn has moved into the top 100 of the RPI, so the loss wouldn't necessarily be a bad loss on Harvard's resume. They would definitely be sweating it out on Selection Sunday, but 25-5 might be just good enough.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Auto Bids (8 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big South - UNC Asheville
CAA - Virginia Commonwealth
MAAC - Loyola-MD
MVC - Creighton
OVC - Murray State
Southern - Davidson
WCC - St. Mary's
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (18):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Colonial (Drexel)
Ivy (Harvard)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 2)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Ivy: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 11 + 37 = 50
The Seeds
Ranked in order within each seed line, auto-bid winners in bold
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina
2 - Ohio State, Duke, Missouri, Michigan State
3 - Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown, Baylor
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple
5 - Wichita State, Louisville, Florida, UNLV
6 - Vanderbilt, Murray State, Creighton, Notre Dame
7 - New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga
8 - Memphis, Iowa State, Kansas State, Purdue
9 - Virginia, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Alabama
10 - Southern Mississippi, California, Harvard, West Virginia
11 - Connecticut, Mississippi State, BYU, Washington
12 - Northwestern, South Florida, Colorado State (Play-In), Xavier (Play-In), Texas (Play-In), Seton Hall (Play-In)
13 - Virginia Commonwealth, Belmont, Davidson, Auto-Bid
14 - Loyola-MD, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid
15 - UNC Asheville, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid
16 - Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In)
Last 8 In:
BYU (lost in MWC semis, rooting against fellow bubble teams still playing who could pass them)
Washington (#1 seed in Pac 12 Tourney but lacking quality wins, need to reach finals to feel safe)
Northwestern (must beat Minnesota to remain in discussion, must then beat Michigan to feel safe)
South Florida (a bad loss to Villanova/Rutgers would pop their bubble, may also need to beat ND)
Colorado State (Likely need to beat TCU in MWC Tourney to feel safe)
Xavier (Likely need to beat Dayton/George Washington in A10 Tourney to feel safe)
Texas (Likely need to beat Iowa State in Big 12 Tourney to feel safe)
Seton Hall (a bad loss to Providence would pop their bubble, likely also need to beat Louisville)
First 9 Out:
Oregon (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
Miami-FL (Likely need to win 2 games in ACC Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Tennessee (Need to reach SEC semi-finals for atlarge chance, probably need to reach SEC finals)
Drexel (lost in CAA final, rooting against fellow bubble teams still playing)
Arizona (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
North Carolina State (Need 2 ACC Tourney wins for atlarge chance, finals appearance to feel safe)
St. Joseph's (Need to reach finals in A10 Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Mississippi (Need to reach finals in SEC Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Central Florida (Need to reach finals in CUSA Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
In the CAA, Virginia Commonwealth ended Drexel's 19 game winning streak and claimed the auto-bid. Drexel will be an interesting bubble team. Although they were 27-6, the regular season winner of the 15th rated conference, and on a huge winning streak before last night, they also have a mere 4 top 100 wins with only 1 against a top 50 team. Their SOS (over 200) would be the highest in the last 10 years to receive an atlarge bid.
I adjusted Washington downward after re-evaluating their resume. Their biggest win (@ Arizona) took a big hit when Wildcats lost to RPI #248 Arizona State on Sunday. Washington now lacks a win over any likely tournament teams and will probably need to make a finals appearance in the Pac 12 Tournament in order to secure their bid. Since they are the 1 seed, I think they have a reasonable chance of making it that far, so I decided to place Washington as my last 11 seed for the time being.
Finally, I moved the Ivy League out of the "Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues" category. If Penn manages to win at Princeton tonight, they will force a 1 game playoff with Harvard for the Ivy League championship. Should Penn win that game as well as earn the auto-bid, Harvard might still be in the picture for an atlarge. Penn has moved into the top 100 of the RPI, so the loss wouldn't necessarily be a bad loss on Harvard's resume. They would definitely be sweating it out on Selection Sunday, but 25-5 might be just good enough.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Auto Bids (8 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big South - UNC Asheville
CAA - Virginia Commonwealth
MAAC - Loyola-MD
MVC - Creighton
OVC - Murray State
Southern - Davidson
WCC - St. Mary's
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (18):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Colonial (Drexel)
Ivy (Harvard)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 2)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Ivy: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 11 + 37 = 50
The Seeds
Ranked in order within each seed line, auto-bid winners in bold
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina
2 - Ohio State, Duke, Missouri, Michigan State
3 - Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown, Baylor
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple
5 - Wichita State, Louisville, Florida, UNLV
6 - Vanderbilt, Murray State, Creighton, Notre Dame
7 - New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga
8 - Memphis, Iowa State, Kansas State, Purdue
9 - Virginia, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Alabama
10 - Southern Mississippi, California, Harvard, West Virginia
11 - Connecticut, Mississippi State, BYU, Washington
12 - Northwestern, South Florida, Colorado State (Play-In), Xavier (Play-In), Texas (Play-In), Seton Hall (Play-In)
13 - Virginia Commonwealth, Belmont, Davidson, Auto-Bid
14 - Loyola-MD, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid
15 - UNC Asheville, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid
16 - Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In)
Last 8 In:
BYU (lost in MWC semis, rooting against fellow bubble teams still playing who could pass them)
Washington (#1 seed in Pac 12 Tourney but lacking quality wins, need to reach finals to feel safe)
Northwestern (must beat Minnesota to remain in discussion, must then beat Michigan to feel safe)
South Florida (a bad loss to Villanova/Rutgers would pop their bubble, may also need to beat ND)
Colorado State (Likely need to beat TCU in MWC Tourney to feel safe)
Xavier (Likely need to beat Dayton/George Washington in A10 Tourney to feel safe)
Texas (Likely need to beat Iowa State in Big 12 Tourney to feel safe)
Seton Hall (a bad loss to Providence would pop their bubble, likely also need to beat Louisville)
First 9 Out:
Oregon (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
Miami-FL (Likely need to win 2 games in ACC Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Tennessee (Need to reach SEC semi-finals for atlarge chance, probably need to reach SEC finals)
Drexel (lost in CAA final, rooting against fellow bubble teams still playing)
Arizona (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
North Carolina State (Need 2 ACC Tourney wins for atlarge chance, finals appearance to feel safe)
St. Joseph's (Need to reach finals in A10 Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Mississippi (Need to reach finals in SEC Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Central Florida (Need to reach finals in CUSA Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Monday, March 5, 2012
Projections Through 3/4/12
I edited my post from earlier today. I made a few small adjustments in the seeding as well as adding Tennessee and Mississippi into the mix.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Auto Bids (4 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big South - UNC Asheville
MVC - Creighton
OVC - Murray State
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel & Virginia Commonwealth)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 2)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:. . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Murray State, Oral Roberts) are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 11 + 37 = 51
The Seeds
Ranked in order within each seed line
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina
2 - Ohio State, Duke, Missouri, Michigan State
3 - Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown, Baylor
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple
5 - Wichita State, Louisville, Florida, UNLV
6 - Vanderbilt, Murray State, Creighton, Notre Dame
7 - New Mexico, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Memphis
8 - Iowa State, Kansas State, St. Mary's, Purdue
9 - Virginia, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Alabama
10 - Southern Mississippi, California, Washington, Harvard
11 - West Virginia, Connecticut, Mississippi State, BYU
12 - Northwestern, South Florida, Oral Roberts, Colorado State (Play-In), Xavier (Play-In)
13 - Texas (Play-In), Seton Hall (Play-In Game), AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID
14 - AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID
15 - AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID
16 - AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID (Play-In), AUTO-BID (Play-In), AUTO-BID (Play-In), AUTO-BID (Play-In)
Last 4 In:
Colorado State (Likely need to beat TCU in MWC Tourney to secure atlarge bid
Xavier (Likely need to beat Dayton/George Washington in A10 Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Texas (Likely need to beat Iowa State in Big 12 Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Seton Hall (Likely need 2 wins in Big East Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
First 9 Out:
Oregon (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
Miami-FL (Likely need to win 2 games in ACC Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Arizona (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
VCU (playing in CAA final today for auto-bid, doubtful for atlarge if they lose)
Drexel (playing in CAA final today for auto-bid, doubtful for atlarge if they lose)
Tennessee (Need to reach SEC finals for atlarge chance, would be right on the bubble)
North Carolina State (Need 2 ACC Tourney wins for chance at atlarge bid, 3 wins to feel secure)
St. Joseph's (Need to reach finals in A10 Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Mississippi (Need to reach finals in SEC Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Central Florida (Need to reach finals in CUSA Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Auto Bids (4 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big South - UNC Asheville
MVC - Creighton
OVC - Murray State
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel & Virginia Commonwealth)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 2)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:. . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Murray State, Oral Roberts) are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 11 + 37 = 51
The Seeds
Ranked in order within each seed line
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina
2 - Ohio State, Duke, Missouri, Michigan State
3 - Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown, Baylor
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple
5 - Wichita State, Louisville, Florida, UNLV
6 - Vanderbilt, Murray State, Creighton, Notre Dame
7 - New Mexico, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Memphis
8 - Iowa State, Kansas State, St. Mary's, Purdue
9 - Virginia, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Alabama
10 - Southern Mississippi, California, Washington, Harvard
11 - West Virginia, Connecticut, Mississippi State, BYU
12 - Northwestern, South Florida, Oral Roberts, Colorado State (Play-In), Xavier (Play-In)
13 - Texas (Play-In), Seton Hall (Play-In Game), AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID
14 - AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID
15 - AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID
16 - AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID, AUTO-BID (Play-In), AUTO-BID (Play-In), AUTO-BID (Play-In), AUTO-BID (Play-In)
Last 4 In:
Colorado State (Likely need to beat TCU in MWC Tourney to secure atlarge bid
Xavier (Likely need to beat Dayton/George Washington in A10 Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Texas (Likely need to beat Iowa State in Big 12 Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Seton Hall (Likely need 2 wins in Big East Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
First 9 Out:
Oregon (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
Miami-FL (Likely need to win 2 games in ACC Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Arizona (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
VCU (playing in CAA final today for auto-bid, doubtful for atlarge if they lose)
Drexel (playing in CAA final today for auto-bid, doubtful for atlarge if they lose)
Tennessee (Need to reach SEC finals for atlarge chance, would be right on the bubble)
North Carolina State (Need 2 ACC Tourney wins for chance at atlarge bid, 3 wins to feel secure)
St. Joseph's (Need to reach finals in A10 Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Mississippi (Need to reach finals in SEC Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Central Florida (Need to reach finals in CUSA Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Projections Through 3/2/12
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (16):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Colonial (Drexel & Virginia Commonwealth)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
Big West (Long Beach State), OVC (Murray State), Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC:. . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:. . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 52 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Long Beach State, Murray State, Oral Roberts) are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 11 + 37 = 52
The Seeds
Rankd in order within each seed line (magic number for bubble teams in parenthesis)
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Duke
2 - North Carolina, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State
3 - Georgetown, Baylor, Michigan, Marquette
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Wichita State
5 - Louisville, Florida, Temple, Vanderbilt
6 - UNLV, Notre Dame, Murray State, New Mexico
7 - Creighton, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Purdue
8 - Memphis, Kansas State, Iowa State, Virginia (1)
9 - St. Mary's, Cincinnati (1), Southern Mississippi, St. Louis
10 - Alabama, California (1), Washington (1), Harvard (1)
11 - BYU, West Virginia (2), Arizona (2), Seton Hall (2)
12 Seeds
South Florida (1)
Mississippi State (1)
Long Beach State (3 makes them probable, 4 gives them the auto-bid)
Oral Roberts (2)
Connecticut (2) (Play-In Game)
Texas (1) (Play-In Game)
13 Seeds
Colorado State (1) (Play-In Game)
Northwestern (2) (Play-In Game)
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
Last 9 Out:
Xavier (3)
Oregon (3)
Miami-FL (3)
VCU (2 leaves them right on the bubble, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
North Carolina State (3)
Drexel (2 leaves them as a longshot, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
Central Florida (3)
St. Joseph's (2 leaves them as a longshot, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
Colorado (3)
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 70 RPI):
Belmont, Davidson, Dayton, Iona, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Weber State
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Colonial (Drexel & Virginia Commonwealth)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
Big West (Long Beach State), OVC (Murray State), Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC:. . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:. . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 52 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Long Beach State, Murray State, Oral Roberts) are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 11 + 37 = 52
The Seeds
Rankd in order within each seed line (magic number for bubble teams in parenthesis)
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Duke
2 - North Carolina, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State
3 - Georgetown, Baylor, Michigan, Marquette
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Wichita State
5 - Louisville, Florida, Temple, Vanderbilt
6 - UNLV, Notre Dame, Murray State, New Mexico
7 - Creighton, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Purdue
8 - Memphis, Kansas State, Iowa State, Virginia (1)
9 - St. Mary's, Cincinnati (1), Southern Mississippi, St. Louis
10 - Alabama, California (1), Washington (1), Harvard (1)
11 - BYU, West Virginia (2), Arizona (2), Seton Hall (2)
12 Seeds
South Florida (1)
Mississippi State (1)
Long Beach State (3 makes them probable, 4 gives them the auto-bid)
Oral Roberts (2)
Connecticut (2) (Play-In Game)
Texas (1) (Play-In Game)
13 Seeds
Colorado State (1) (Play-In Game)
Northwestern (2) (Play-In Game)
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
Last 9 Out:
Xavier (3)
Oregon (3)
Miami-FL (3)
VCU (2 leaves them right on the bubble, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
North Carolina State (3)
Drexel (2 leaves them as a longshot, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
Central Florida (3)
St. Joseph's (2 leaves them as a longshot, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
Colorado (3)
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 70 RPI):
Belmont, Davidson, Dayton, Iona, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Weber State
Friday, March 2, 2012
Projections Through 3/1/12
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (14):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (3):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Colonial (Drexel & Virginia Commonwealth), MAAC (Iona), Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
Big West (Long Beach State), OVC (Murray State), Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC:. . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:. . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 52 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Long Beach State, Murray State, Oral Roberts) are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 11 + 37 = 52
The Seeds
Rankd in order within each seed line (magic number for bubble teams in parenthesis)
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Duke
2 - North Carolina, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State
3 - Georgetown, Baylor, Michigan, Marquette
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Wichita State
5 - Louisville, Florida, Temple, Vanderbilt
6 - UNLV, Notre Dame, Murray State, New Mexico
7 - Gonzaga, Creighton, San Diego State, Purdue
8 - Memphis, Kansas State, Iowa State, Virginia (1)
9 - St. Mary's, Cincinnati (1), Southern Mississippi, St. Louis
10 - Alabama, California (1), Washington (1), Harvard (2)
11 - West Virginia (2), BYU (1), Arizona (2), Seton Hall (2)
12 Seeds
South Florida (1)
Mississippi State (1)
Long Beach State (3 makes them probable, 4 gives them the auto-bid)
Oral Roberts (2)
Connecticut (2) (Play-In Game)
Texas (1) (Play-In Game)
13 Seeds
Colorado State (1) (Play-In Game)
Northwestern (2) (Play-In Game)
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
Closest 9 Out:
Miami-FL (3)
Xavier (3)
Oregon (3)
VCU (2 leaves them right on the bubble, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
North Carolina State (3)
Drexel (2 leaves them as a longshot, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
Central Florida (3)
St. Joseph's (2 leaves them as a longshot, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
Colorado (3)
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 70 RPI):
Belmont, Davidson, Dayton, Iona, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Weber State
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (3):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Colonial (Drexel & Virginia Commonwealth), MAAC (Iona), Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
Big West (Long Beach State), OVC (Murray State), Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC:. . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:. . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 52 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Long Beach State, Murray State, Oral Roberts) are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 11 + 37 = 52
The Seeds
Rankd in order within each seed line (magic number for bubble teams in parenthesis)
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Duke
2 - North Carolina, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State
3 - Georgetown, Baylor, Michigan, Marquette
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Wichita State
5 - Louisville, Florida, Temple, Vanderbilt
6 - UNLV, Notre Dame, Murray State, New Mexico
7 - Gonzaga, Creighton, San Diego State, Purdue
8 - Memphis, Kansas State, Iowa State, Virginia (1)
9 - St. Mary's, Cincinnati (1), Southern Mississippi, St. Louis
10 - Alabama, California (1), Washington (1), Harvard (2)
11 - West Virginia (2), BYU (1), Arizona (2), Seton Hall (2)
12 Seeds
South Florida (1)
Mississippi State (1)
Long Beach State (3 makes them probable, 4 gives them the auto-bid)
Oral Roberts (2)
Connecticut (2) (Play-In Game)
Texas (1) (Play-In Game)
13 Seeds
Colorado State (1) (Play-In Game)
Northwestern (2) (Play-In Game)
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
Closest 9 Out:
Miami-FL (3)
Xavier (3)
Oregon (3)
VCU (2 leaves them right on the bubble, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
North Carolina State (3)
Drexel (2 leaves them as a longshot, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
Central Florida (3)
St. Joseph's (2 leaves them as a longshot, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
Colorado (3)
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 70 RPI):
Belmont, Davidson, Dayton, Iona, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Weber State
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