Each year, you will find bracketologists who put together complete bracket predictions before the season even starts. Then, they will update their brackets throughout the season, trying to keep up with all the changes that happen once the actual games start being played.
Here at March_24_7, I do things differently at different points in the season. Early on, I simply try to start distinguishing which teams look likely to make the NCAA tournament. As the season progresses, I add more detail, break teams up into more specific groups, and even finally start doing some initial seeding in the weeks leading up to Selection Sunday.
For a breakdown of the assumpions, labels, groups, terminology, etc. that I use, please read on:
Predicting or Evaluating?
Bracketologists usually fall into one of two groups.
1) Predict what the field of 68 will look like come selection sunday
2) Evaluate what the field of 68 currently looks like as of today
I tend to land somewhere in the middle. I start by analyzing where teams stand at the moment and then make small adjustments based on remaining schedules. I do not try to predict future upsets or overanalyze a team's recent trend. Overall, I would say I use the following formula:
75% (Current resume) + 25% (Predicted outcomes)
Assumptions
For my analysis, I always assume that the best team in each conference will win the conference tournament. This doesn't always (or even usually) happen, but it gives me a good benchmark to start with. When the best team in a conference also wins the conference tournament, bubble teams are happy. This is the result that leaves the most atlarge openings.
This assumption is important to establish because in most years it doesn't actually happen. Upsets in conference tournaments are just as common as in the Big Dance. So what happens when one of these upsets occurs? Well, it depends on what type of league we are talking about. If this is a "Guaranteed 1 Bid League", then nothing much changes. The auto bid goes to the tournament champion, and no atlarge bids are awarded to anyone from that conference. In major conferences, you will also find it rare for anything to change in the big picture. For example, in recent years, the Big East has entered its tournament with 6, 7, 8, or even 9 teams as locks for the NCAA Tournament. As long as one of these teams wins the Big East Tourney, no atlarge bids are lost. Only if someone from outsite this group of 6-9 teams wins will anything change. At this point, I refer to the winner as having "stolen a bid". Their auto-bid will force someone else in conference to take up an atlarge spot that could have gone to a bubble team.
This same scenario can happen in any league where at least one team enters the conference tournament with atlarge hopes. Part of the reason that I list conferences as being "Probable 1 Bid Leagues" and "Possible 1 Bid Leagues" is to help point out which conferences are most likely to "steal" a bid this way. Remember, my cut line is based on the assumption that 0 bids will be "stolen". Anytime that there is an exception to this, a bubble spot is lost. This means that right up to Selection Sunday, the teams immediately above my "cut line" are still vulnerable.
Conference Breakdown
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues
As the name suggests, these leagues are only going to get 1 bid to the NCAA tournament regardless of who wins their conference tournament. You won't find a single team with any hope of an atlarge bid. Note that this means the auto bid will go to what I call an "undeserving team". That is not meant as a criticism of the current system. I actually like the fact that every conference gets a representative. However, I like to differentiate between auto bid teams that would have received an atlarge bid if necessary and teams that would not have been selected for the NCAA tournament based solely on the merit of their season. What you will traditionally find is that the field of 68 is not the top 68 teams in the country, but usually, more like the top 50 teams + 18 auto bid teams outside the top 50 coming in with rankings all across the spectrum. These 18 or so teams are the ones that come from "Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues".
Probable 1 Bid Leagues
These leagues are likely to only get 1 bid to the NCAA tournament, but they have a chance for more. This category includes conferences where you might find one or more teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble. Since the season isn't over yet, these teams might work their way into atlarge status with a strong finish, such as making it to their conference tournament championship game. Think of it this way. If the season ended today, these leagues wouldn't receive any atlarge bids. However, since the season doesn't end today, there is still time for that to change. Most years, there are only a couple conferences that fit the "Probable 1 Bid League" status.
Possible 1 Bid Leagues
These leagues currently have 1 team (no more, no less) that looks worthy of an atlarge bid. If that same team wins the conference tournament, these leagues will become 1 bid leagues. However, if someone else (an "undeserving" team) wins the conference tournament, that conference might "steal" a 2nd bid from the atlarge pool.
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues
This is my list of conferences with chances to receive multiple bids above and beyond their one auto-bid. I list the number of teams I currently expect to see from that conference, followed by the minimum and maximum number of teams I could possibly see making it.
Team Breakdown
Fighting For #1 Seeds
These are the teams that I feel have the best shot at receiving a #1 seed.
Fighting For Protected Seeds
These are the teams that I feel have the best shot at receiving a protected seed. Seeds 1-4 are called "protected seeds" because they are given special priority by the selction committee to avoid traveling long distances and/or playing against teams that are close to home in what would become a "road atmosphere".
Other Locks
These are the teams that I feel are guaranteed to be in the tournament, although they are unlikely to make it all the way up to "Protected Seed" status.
Probable
These are the teams that I feel are very likely to make the tournament. My definition of "probable" changes slightly throughout the year. In December, a team that is "probable" could very easily finish poorly and miss out on receiving a bid. In February, a team that is "probable" would have to have a complete collapse in order to miss the tournament.
Possible/Bubble
These are the teams that I feel are in the hunt for a bid, but still have work left to be done. I usually start to refer to this group as "Bubble Teams" once conference play reaches the midway point and we start to see a little bit more separation than we saw earlier in the season.
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED
These are the teams that I feel have already missed any opportunity they might have had for an atlarge bid. They can still make the NCAA Tournament by winning their conference tournament, but I think they have lost too many games, or have too few quality games remaining, in order to work themselves back into the atlarge picture. Obviously, by March, there are over 200 teams whose bubbles have already "popped", so I only list the top RPI teams, such as teams with RPIs better than 75. My goal with this category is to point out teams that might be thrown out as possible bubble candidates that I feel have already let their opportunity pass them by.
