Saturday, January 28, 2012

Projections Through 1/27/12

Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (14):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team.
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Great West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MEAC, MAAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (6):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Virginia Commonwealth)
Southern (Davidson)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)


21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 49 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Murray State & Harvard) are also atlarge worthy.   2 + 10 + 37 = 49


Fighting For #1 Seeds (9):
Baylor, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse

Fighting For Protected Seeds (19):
Connecticut, Creighton, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Illinois, Kansas State, Marquette, Michigan, Mississippi State, Murray State, San Diego State, St. Mary's, UNLV, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Probable (14):
Alabama, BYU, California, Dayton, Harvard, Indiana, Louisville, Memphis, New Mexico, Seton Hall, Southern Mississippi, St. Louis, Temple, Virginia

Bubble (7 In, 4 Out):
Central Florida, Colorado State, Iowa State, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Purdue, Texas, Xavier

Long Shots (19):
Arizona, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Davidson, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Marshall, Massachusetts, Miami (FL), Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Notre Dame, Ohio, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Stanford, Virginia Commonwealth, Washington, Wyoming

Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Akron, Bucknell, Cleveland State, Colorado, Denver, Iona, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, South Dakota State, South Florida, St. Bonaventure, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Weber State

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Projections Through 1/24/12

Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (13):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Great West, Horizon, MAC, MEAC, MAAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (7):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Virginia Commonwealth)
Ivy (Harvard)
Southern (Davidson)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)


21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 48 teams will get in:
1 "One-Bid League" leader (Murray State) is also atlarge worthy. 1 + 10 + 37 = 48


Fighting For #1 Seeds (9):
Baylor, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse

Fighting For Protected Seeds (18):
Connecticut, Creighton, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas State, Marquette, Michigan, Murray State, San Diego State, St. Mary's, UNLV, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Wisconsin

Probable (12):
Alabama, California, Dayton, Louisville, Memphis, New Mexico, Seton Hall, Southern Mississippi, Mississippi State, Temple, Virginia, Wichita State

Bubble (9 In, 5 Out):
BYU, Central Florida, Colorado State, Harvard, Iowa State, Marshall, Minnesota, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Purdue, St. Louis, Texas, Xavier

Long Shots (18):
Arizona, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Davidson, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Massachusetts, Miami (FL), Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Nevada, Northern Iowa, Ohio, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Stanford, Virginia Commonwealth, Wyoming

Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Akron, Bucknell, Cleveland State, Colorado, Denver, Iona, Norfolk State, Oklahoma, South Dakota State, South Florida, St. Bonaventure, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Weber State

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Projections Through 1/23/12

Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (13):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Great West, Horizon, MAC, MEAC, MAAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (7):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Virginia Commonwealth)
Ivy (Harvard)
Southern (Davidson)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)


21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 48 teams will get in:
1 "One-Bid League" leader (Murray State) is also atlarge worthy. 1 + 10 + 37 = 48


Fighting For #1 Seeds (9):
Baylor, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse

Fighting For Protected Seeds (18):
Connecticut, Creighton, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas State, Marquette, Michigan, Murray State, San Diego State, St. Mary's, UNLV, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Wisconsin

Probable (13):
Alabama, California, Dayton, Louisville, Memphis, New Mexico, Purdue, Seton Hall, Southern Mississippi, Mississippi State, Temple, Virginia, Wichita State

Bubble (8 In, 5 Out):
BYU, Central Florida, Colorado State, Harvard, Iowa State, Marshall, Minnesota, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, St. Louis, Texas, Xavier

Long Shots (18):
Arizona, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Davidson, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Massachusetts, Miami (FL), Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Nevada, Northern Iowa, Ohio, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Stanford, Virginia Commonwealth, Wyoming

Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Akron, Bucknell, Cleveland State, Colorado, Denver, Iona, Norfolk State, Oklahoma, South Dakota State, South Florida, Villanova, Virginia Tech

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Projections Through 1/20/12

There weren't any games of major significance last night, so for today's update, I have separated out the teams that have a shot at a #1 seed.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (12):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Great West, Horizon, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (8):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Virginia Commonwealth)
Ivy (Harvard)
MAAC (Iona)
Southern (Davidson)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Sun Belt (Denver, Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada, New Mexico State)

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)


21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 48 teams will get in:
1 "One-Bid League" leader (Murray State) is also atlarge worthy. 1 + 10 + 37 = 48


Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
Baylor, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse

Fighting For Protected Seeds (19):
Alabama, Connecticut, Creighton, Florida, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas State, Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, Murray State, San Diego State, St. Mary's, UNLV, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Wisconsin

Probable (13):
California, Dayton, Florida State, Louisville, Memphis, New Mexico, Purdue, Seton Hall, Southern Mississippi, Mississippi State, Temple, Virginia, Wichita State

Bubble (8 In, 6 Out):
BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Harvard, Iowa State, Marshall, Minnesota, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, St. Louis, Texas, Xavier

Long Shots (20):
Arizona, Arkansas, Davidson, Denver, Iona, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Massachusetts, Miami (FL), Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Stanford, Virginia Commonwealth, Wyoming

Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Akron, Bucknell, Cleveland State, Colorado, Missouri State, Norfolk State, Ohio, South Dakota State, Virginia Tech, Wagner, Washington, Weber State

Friday, January 20, 2012

Projections Through 1/19/12

Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (12):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Great West, Horizon, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (8):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Virginia Commonwealth)
Ivy (Harvard)
MAAC (Iona)
Southern (Davidson)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Sun Belt (Denver, Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada, New Mexico State)

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)

21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 48 teams will get in:
1 "One-Bid League" leader (Murray State) is also atlarge worthy. 1 + 10 + 37 = 48


Fighting For Protected Seeds (27):
Alabama, Baylor, Connecticut, Creighton, Duke, Florida, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, Missouri, Murray State, North Carolina, Ohio State, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Syracuse, UNLV, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Wisconsin

Probable (13):
California, Dayton, Florida State, Louisville, Memphis, New Mexico, Purdue, Seton Hall, Southern Mississippi, Mississippi State, Temple, Virginia, Wichita State

Bubble (8 In, 6 Out):
BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Harvard, Iowa State, Marshall, Minnesota, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, St. Louis, Texas, Xavier

Long Shots (20):
Arizona, Arkansas, Davidson, Denver, Iona, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Massachusetts, Miami (FL), Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Stanford, Virginia Commonwealth, Wyoming

Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Akron, Bucknell, Cleveland State, Colorado, Missouri State, Norfolk State, Ohio, South Dakota State, Virginia Tech, Wagner, Washington, Weber State

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Projections Through 1/18/12

Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (12):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Great West, Horizon, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (8):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Colonial (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Ivy (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
MAAC (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Southern (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Summit (0 in as of today, 1 bubbles yet to burst)
Sun Belt (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
WAC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (1 in as of today & 0 bubbles yet to burst)


21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 48 teams will get in:
1 "One-Bid League" leader (Murray State) is also atlarge worthy. 1 + 10 + 37 = 48


Fighting For Protected Seeds (26)
Alabama, Baylor, Connecticut, Creighton, Duke, Florida, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, Missouri, Murray State, North Carolina, Ohio State, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Syracuse, UNLV, West Virginia, Wisconsin

Probable (15):
BYU, California, Dayton, Florida State, Louisville, Memphis, New Mexico, Purdue, Seton Hall, Southern Mississippi, Mississippi State, Temple, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Wichita State

Bubble (7 In, 7 Out):
Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Harvard, Iowa State, Marshall, Minnesota, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, St. Louis, Stanford, Texas, Xavier

Long Shots (21):
Arizona, Arkansas, Davidson, Denver, Iona, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Massachusetts, Miami (FL), Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Washington, Wyoming

Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Akron, Bucknell, Cleveland State, Colorado, Missouri State, Norfolk State, Ohio, South Dakota State, Weber State

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Projections Through 1/11/12

Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (9):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Great West, MEAC, Patriot, Southland, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (11):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Colonial (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Horizon (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Ivy (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
MAAC (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
MAC (0 in as of today, 2 bubble yet to burst)
Northeast (0 in as of today, 1 bubbles yet to burst)
Southern (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Summit (0 in as of today, 1 bubbles yet to burst)
Sun Belt (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
WAC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (1 in as of today & 0 bubbles yet to burst)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 48 teams will get in:
1 "One-Bid League" leader (Murray State) is also atlarge worthy. 1 + 10 + 37 = 48

Fighting For Protected Seeds (25):
Alabama, Baylor, Connecticut, Duke, Florida, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Temple, UNLV, West Virginia, Wisconsin

Probable (16):
BYU, California, Creighton, Dayton, Memphis, Murray State, New Mexico, Purdue, Southern Mississippi, Mississippi State, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Temple, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Wichita State

Bubble (7 In, 8 Out):
Arkansas, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Florida State, Iona, Marshall, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, St. Joseph's, St. Louis, Stanford, Texas, Virginia Tech, Xavier

Long Shots (37):
Arizona, Buffalo, Central Florida, Charlotte, Cleveland State, College of Charleston, Colorado, Davidson, Denver, Harvard, Iowa State, La Salle, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Maryland, Massachusetts, Miami (FL), Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri State, Nevada, New Mexico State, North Carolina State, Notre Dame, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, South Dakota State, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Wagner, Washington, Wyoming

Friday, January 6, 2012

A Broad Overview of the Bubble

Look for a complete breakdown of the bubble in the coming week.  For now, here's a broad overview to get things started for 2012...

Locks & Near Locks (25):
Alabama, Baylor, Connecticut, Duke, Florida, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Seton Hall, St. Mary's, Syracuse, Temple, UNLV, Wisconsin

Bubble (32):
Arizona, Arkansas, BYU, California, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Creighton, Dayton, Florida State, Harvard, Illinois, Iona, Kansas State, Minnesota, Murray State, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Saint Joseph's, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, St. Louis, Temple, Texas, Vanderbilt, Viginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Wichita State, Xavier

Long Shots (37)
Belmont, Central Florida, Cleveland State, College of Charleston, Davidson, Denver, Indiana State, Iowa State, Kent State, La Salle, Lehigh, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Marshall, Massachusetts, Miami (FL), Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Missouri State, New Mexico State, North Carolina State, North Dakota State, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Oklahoma State, Oral Roberts, Oregon, Oregon State, Robert Morris, South Dakota State, Stanford, Villanova, Wagner, Washington, Wyoming