Friday, December 30, 2011
It's once again that time of year!
As the non-conference season ends and conference play begins, we are beginning to reach the point where we can start to analyze teams with more than just pre-season predictions. March_24_7 will be updating regularly with new analysis and projections. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Final Tournament Results - 2011
Below is the final tally of conference results for the 2011 NCAA Tournament:
| Expected Record | Actual Record | % of Wins Expected | ||||
| Colonial | 3.2 - 5.8 | 6-3 | 188% | |||
| Pac 10 | 4.1 - 4.9 | 5-4 | 122% | |||
| A10 | 2.7 - 3.3 | 3-3 | 111% | |||
| ACC | 7.7 - 4.3 | 8-4 | 104% | |||
| SEC | 7.1 - 4.9 | 7-5 | 99% | |||
| Big East | 14.4 - 8.6 | 13-10 | 90% | |||
| Big Ten | 8.3 - 5.7 | 7-7 | 84% | |||
| Mountain West | 4.8 - 2.2 | 4-3 | 83% | |||
| Big 12 | 7.0 - 3.0 | 5-5 | 71% | |||
| CUSA | 0.8 - 1.2 | 0-2 | 0% | |||
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Tournament Summary - Chamionship Game is Set
Well, the championship game is set and it is time to once again evaluate each of the multi-bid conferences.
Here are my estimates based on the matchup combinations we saw Saturday:
3 (Connecticut) vs 4 (Kentucky) - 3 wins 50% of the time
8 (Butler) vs 11 (Virginia Commonwealth) - 8 wins 60% of the time
After applying those numbers to Sunday's games, we get the following results:
Once again, congrats to VCU and the Colonial. This year's winner won in a landslide. Don't forget Old Dominion, who lost in the first round to a decent 8 seed... Butler. The CAA was strong this year.
Big 12, well, thanks for showing up. Given your seedings and your opponents, your 5-5 record was pretty bad. To be honest, I know there have been worse performances by a conference in recent years, but as for the 2011 Tournament, the Big 12 gets my vote for "Biggest Disappointment".
Here are my estimates based on the matchup combinations we saw Saturday:
3 (Connecticut) vs 4 (Kentucky) - 3 wins 50% of the time
8 (Butler) vs 11 (Virginia Commonwealth) - 8 wins 60% of the time
After applying those numbers to Sunday's games, we get the following results:
| Expected Record | Actual Record | % of Wins Expected | ||||
| Colonial | 3.2 - 5.8 | 6-3 | 188% | |||
| Pac 10 | 4.1 - 4.9 | 5-4 | 122% | |||
| A10 | 2.7 - 3.3 | 3-3 | 111% | |||
| ACC | 7.7 - 4.3 | 8-4 | 104% | |||
| SEC | 7.1 - 4.9 | 7-5 | 99% | |||
| Big East | 13.7 - 8.3 | 12-10 | 88% | |||
| Big Ten | 8.3 - 5.7 | 7-7 | 84% | |||
| Mountain West | 4.8 - 2.2 | 4-3 | 83% | |||
| Big 12 | 7.0 - 3.0 | 5-5 | 71% | |||
| CUSA | 0.8 - 1.2 | 0-2 | 0% | |||
Once again, congrats to VCU and the Colonial. This year's winner won in a landslide. Don't forget Old Dominion, who lost in the first round to a decent 8 seed... Butler. The CAA was strong this year.
Big 12, well, thanks for showing up. Given your seedings and your opponents, your 5-5 record was pretty bad. To be honest, I know there have been worse performances by a conference in recent years, but as for the 2011 Tournament, the Big 12 gets my vote for "Biggest Disappointment".
Monday, March 28, 2011
Tournament Summary - Final 4
Here are my estimates based on the matchup combinations we saw Sunday:
1 (Kansas) vs 11 (VCU) - 1 wins 90% of the time
2 (North Carolina) vs 4 (Kentucky) - 2 wins 60% of the time
After applying those numbers to Sunday's games, we get the following results:
1 (Kansas) vs 11 (VCU) - 1 wins 90% of the time
2 (North Carolina) vs 4 (Kentucky) - 2 wins 60% of the time
After applying those numbers to Sunday's games, we get the following results:
| Expected Record | Actual Record | % of Wins Expected | ||||
| Colonial | 2.8 - 5.2 | 6-2 | 214% | |||
| Pac 10 | 4.1 - 4.9 | 5-4 | 122% | |||
| A10 | 2.7 - 3.3 | 3-3 | 111% | |||
| SEC | 6.6 - 4.4 | 7-4 | 106% | |||
| ACC | 7.7 - 4.3 | 8-4 | 104% | |||
| Big Ten | 8.3 - 5.7 | 7-7 | 84% | |||
| Big East | 13.2 - 7.8 | 11-10 | 83% | |||
| Mountain West | 4.8 - 2.2 | 4-3 | 83% | |||
| Big 12 | 7.0 - 3.0 | 5-5 | 71% | |||
| CUSA | 0.8 - 1.2 | 0-2 | 0% | |||
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Tournament Summary - 6 Teams Left
Here are my estimates based on the matchup combinations we saw Saturday:
2 (Florida) vs 8 (Butler) - 2 wins 80% of the time
3 (UConn) vs 5 (Arizona) - 3 wins 60% of the time
After applying those numbers to Saturday's games, we get the following results:
2 (Florida) vs 8 (Butler) - 2 wins 80% of the time
3 (UConn) vs 5 (Arizona) - 3 wins 60% of the time
After applying those numbers to Saturday's games, we get the following results:
| Expected Record | Actual Record | % of Wins Expected | ||||
| Colonial | 2.7 - 4.3 | 5-2 | 185% | |||
| Pac 10 | 4.1 - 4.9 | 5-4 | 122% | |||
| ACC | 7.1 - 3.9 | 8-3 | 113% | |||
| A10 | 2.7 - 3.3 | 3-3 | 111% | |||
| SEC | 6.2 - 3.8 | 6-4 | 97% | |||
| Big Ten | 8.3 - 5.7 | 7-7 | 84% | |||
| Big East | 13.2 - 7.8 | 11-10 | 83% | |||
| Mountain West | 4.8 - 2.2 | 4-3 | 83% | |||
| Big 12 | 6.1 - 2.9 | 5-4 | 82% | |||
| CUSA | 0.8 - 1.2 | 0-2 | 0% | |||
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Tournament Summary - Elite 8
And then there were 8. It seems like just yesterday that we were starting this tournament. Now, we are down to just 12% of the original field. This group of 8 teams includes quite a bit of variety with 7 different conferences and 7 different seeds being represented. Kansas is the lone 1 seed left, while Butler and VCU are showing that teams usually expected to fall the first weekend can put it all together and go on extended runs. Here's a complete list of the remaining 8 teams:
1 - Kansas
2 - Florida
2 - North Carolina
3 - Connecticut
4 - Kentucky
5 - Arizona
8 - Butler
11 - Virginia Commonwealth
As for my conference breakdown, here are my estimates based on the matchup combinations we saw in this year's Sweet 16:
1 vs 12 - 1 wins 90% of the time
1 vs 5 - 1 wins 80% of the time
1 vs 4 - 1 wins 70% of the time
2 vs 11 - 2 wins 90% of the time
2 vs 3 - 2 wins 60% of the time
4 vs 8 - 4 wins 70% of the time
10 vs 11 - 10 wins 50% of the time
After applying those numbers to the Sweet 16 games, we get the following results:
Can we crown the Colonial as champs? We sure can! With VCU matching up against KU in the Elite 8, even a loss would only drop the CAA down to 179%. Unless Arizona plans on winning the national championship, this is going to be a runaway victory for the CAA.
On the other end of the spectrum, we have a 4 way race (not counting CUSA). Both the Big Ten and Mountain West have run out of teams, so their numbers are fixed. With KU still representing the Big 12 and Connecticut still representing the Big East, both of those leagues have a chance to move up and shed the label "disappointment".
The biggest mover in the last couple of days was the SEC. Kentucky's upset of Ohio State, along with Florida continuing to take care of business, has led the SEC up in the rankings. No longer appearing to be a disappointment, the SEC now has a chance to make a case as one of the more impressive performances by a conference.
As always, stay tuned for more analysis as the field continues to shrink...
1 - Kansas
2 - Florida
2 - North Carolina
3 - Connecticut
4 - Kentucky
5 - Arizona
8 - Butler
11 - Virginia Commonwealth
As for my conference breakdown, here are my estimates based on the matchup combinations we saw in this year's Sweet 16:
1 vs 12 - 1 wins 90% of the time
1 vs 5 - 1 wins 80% of the time
1 vs 4 - 1 wins 70% of the time
2 vs 11 - 2 wins 90% of the time
2 vs 3 - 2 wins 60% of the time
4 vs 8 - 4 wins 70% of the time
10 vs 11 - 10 wins 50% of the time
After applying those numbers to the Sweet 16 games, we get the following results:
| Expected Record | Actual Record | % of Wins Expected | ||||
| Colonial | 2.7 - 4.3 | 5-2 | 185% | |||
| Pac 10 | 3.7 - 4.3 | 5-3 | 135% | |||
| ACC | 7.1 - 3.9 | 8-3 | 113% | |||
| SEC | 5.4 - 3.6 | 6-3 | 111% | |||
| A10 | 2.7 - 3.3 | 3-3 | 111% | |||
| Big Ten | 8.3 - 5.7 | 7-7 | 84% | |||
| Mountain West | 4.8 - 2.2 | 4-3 | 83% | |||
| Big 12 | 6.1 - 2.9 | 5-4 | 82% | |||
| Big East | 12.6 - 7.4 | 10-10 | 79% | |||
| CUSA | 0.8 - 1.2 | 0-2 | 0% | |||
Can we crown the Colonial as champs? We sure can! With VCU matching up against KU in the Elite 8, even a loss would only drop the CAA down to 179%. Unless Arizona plans on winning the national championship, this is going to be a runaway victory for the CAA.
On the other end of the spectrum, we have a 4 way race (not counting CUSA). Both the Big Ten and Mountain West have run out of teams, so their numbers are fixed. With KU still representing the Big 12 and Connecticut still representing the Big East, both of those leagues have a chance to move up and shed the label "disappointment".
The biggest mover in the last couple of days was the SEC. Kentucky's upset of Ohio State, along with Florida continuing to take care of business, has led the SEC up in the rankings. No longer appearing to be a disappointment, the SEC now has a chance to make a case as one of the more impressive performances by a conference.
As always, stay tuned for more analysis as the field continues to shrink...
Friday, March 25, 2011
Conference Update - 12 Teams Remaining
This will be quick. Expect more following tonight's games as we prepare for the Elite 8.
Updated Conference Standings (% of expected wins):
Colonial - 182%
Pac 10 - 132%
ACC - 125%
A10 - 115%
Big 10 - 92%
SEC - 89%
Mountain West - 83%
Big East - 80%
Big 12 - 77%
Teams Remaining:
ACC - 2
Big East - 2
SEC - 2
A10 - 1
Big 10 - 1
Big 12 - 1
Colonial - 1
Horizon - 1
Pac 10 - 1
Updated Conference Standings (% of expected wins):
Colonial - 182%
Pac 10 - 132%
ACC - 125%
A10 - 115%
Big 10 - 92%
SEC - 89%
Mountain West - 83%
Big East - 80%
Big 12 - 77%
Teams Remaining:
ACC - 2
Big East - 2
SEC - 2
A10 - 1
Big 10 - 1
Big 12 - 1
Colonial - 1
Horizon - 1
Pac 10 - 1
Monday, March 21, 2011
Tournament Summary - Sweet 16
One weekend down and we are now left with 16 teams standing. Surprises abound as 12 seed Richmond, 11 seeds Marquette and Virginia Commonwealth, 10 seed Florida State, and 8 seed Butler all advanced to the 2nd weekend. We also saw #1 seed Duke and #2 seeds San Diego State and North Carolina win by the narrowest of margins. Interestingly enough, the majority of these upsets have all occurred in the same region, the Southwest. #1 seed KU currently has a path to the Final Four that would include seeds 16, 9, 12, and then 10/11, making them a near shoe-in to be visiting Houston this year. The West region came the closest to following expectations as #5 seed Arizona is the region's biggest Sweet 16 "surprise".
In order to provide an update to my conference breakdown I needed to determine the likelihood of each team advancing. Unlike the first round where a 1 always plays a 16, 2nd round matchups can be different combinations of seeds. This makes it much harder to use past data to predict the odds of any given team advancing. My solution was to attempt to establish percentages on my own. You may agree or disagree, but I think these should be close enough to accomplish the desired goal. Anyway, here are my estimates based on the matchup combinations in this year's round of 32:
1 vs 8/9 - 1 wins 80% of the time
2 vs 10 - 2 wins 80% of the time
2 vs 7 - 2 wins 70% of the time
3 vs 11 - 3 wins 80% of the time
3 vs 6 - 3 wins 60% of the time
4 vs 5 - 4 wins 50% of the time
12 vs 13 - 12 wins 60% of the time
After applying those numbers to this weekend's games, we get the following results:
The first thing that jumps out at me is the ACC. Their 7-1 record looks amazing until you realize that they were basically expected to be 5-3 at this point. Yes, they are doing much better than expected, but just because everyone on TV is hyping their start through the first couple of rounds, don't crown them as the winners of the "most overachieving performance by a conference" just yet. In reality, the Colonial has the lead in that race following VCU's pounding of Purdue to reach the Sweet 16.
As for disappointments, a lot has been said about the Big East and their 9-9 record. Although they are indeed well below their expected win total of 12 games through the first weekend, they aren't the only conference to disappoint so far. The Big 12 currently sits ever so slightly above the Big East in my standings, while the SEC is only a disappointing finish away from possibly taking the "honor" of most disappointing. (I'm leaving out CUSA because of their small sample size and lack of quality seeding.)
Stay tuned for more analysis as the week rolls on...
In order to provide an update to my conference breakdown I needed to determine the likelihood of each team advancing. Unlike the first round where a 1 always plays a 16, 2nd round matchups can be different combinations of seeds. This makes it much harder to use past data to predict the odds of any given team advancing. My solution was to attempt to establish percentages on my own. You may agree or disagree, but I think these should be close enough to accomplish the desired goal. Anyway, here are my estimates based on the matchup combinations in this year's round of 32:
1 vs 8/9 - 1 wins 80% of the time
2 vs 10 - 2 wins 80% of the time
2 vs 7 - 2 wins 70% of the time
3 vs 11 - 3 wins 80% of the time
3 vs 6 - 3 wins 60% of the time
4 vs 5 - 4 wins 50% of the time
12 vs 13 - 12 wins 60% of the time
After applying those numbers to this weekend's games, we get the following results:
| Expected Record | Actual Record | % of Wins Expected | ||||
| Colonial | 2.2 - 3.8 | 4-2 | 182% | |||
| ACC | 4.9 - 3.1 | 7-1 | 143% | |||
| A10 | 2.6 - 2.4 | 3-2 | 115% | |||
| Pac 10 | 3.5 - 3.5 | 4-3 | 114% | |||
| Mountain West | 3.8 - 1.2 | 4-1 | 105% | |||
| Big Ten | 6.9 - 5.1 | 7-5 | 101% | |||
| SEC | 4.5 - 2.5 | 4-3 | 89% | |||
| Big 12 | 5.2 - 2.8 | 4-4 | 77% | |||
| Big East | 12.1 - 5.9 | 9-9 | 74% | |||
| CUSA | 0.8 - 1.2 | 0-2 | 0% | |||
The first thing that jumps out at me is the ACC. Their 7-1 record looks amazing until you realize that they were basically expected to be 5-3 at this point. Yes, they are doing much better than expected, but just because everyone on TV is hyping their start through the first couple of rounds, don't crown them as the winners of the "most overachieving performance by a conference" just yet. In reality, the Colonial has the lead in that race following VCU's pounding of Purdue to reach the Sweet 16.
As for disappointments, a lot has been said about the Big East and their 9-9 record. Although they are indeed well below their expected win total of 12 games through the first weekend, they aren't the only conference to disappoint so far. The Big 12 currently sits ever so slightly above the Big East in my standings, while the SEC is only a disappointing finish away from possibly taking the "honor" of most disappointing. (I'm leaving out CUSA because of their small sample size and lack of quality seeding.)
Stay tuned for more analysis as the week rolls on...
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