Sunday, March 27, 2011

Tournament Summary - 6 Teams Left

Here are my estimates based on the matchup combinations we saw Saturday:

2 (Florida) vs 8 (Butler) - 2 wins 80% of the time
3 (UConn) vs 5 (Arizona) - 3 wins 60% of the time

After applying those numbers to Saturday's games, we get the following results:

Expected RecordActual Record% of Wins Expected
Colonial2.7 - 4.35-2185%
Pac 104.1 - 4.95-4122%
ACC7.1 - 3.98-3113%
A102.7 - 3.33-3111%
SEC6.2 - 3.86-497%
Big Ten8.3 - 5.77-784%
Big East13.2 - 7.811-1083%
Mountain West4.8 - 2.24-383%
Big 126.1 - 2.95-482%
CUSA0.8 - 1.20-20%

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