Tournament Summary - Sweet 16

One weekend down and we are now left with 16 teams standing.  Surprises abound as 12 seed Richmond, 11 seeds Marquette and Virginia Commonwealth, 10 seed Florida State, and 8 seed Butler all advanced to the 2nd weekend.  We also saw #1 seed Duke and #2 seeds San Diego State and North Carolina win by the narrowest of margins.  Interestingly enough, the majority of these upsets have all occurred in the same region, the Southwest.  #1 seed KU currently has a path to the Final Four that would include seeds 16, 9, 12, and then 10/11, making them a near shoe-in to be visiting Houston this year.  The West region came the closest to following expectations as #5 seed Arizona is the region's biggest Sweet 16 "surprise".

In order to provide an update to my conference breakdown I needed to determine the likelihood of each team advancing.  Unlike the first round where a 1 always plays a 16, 2nd round matchups can be different combinations of seeds.  This makes it much harder to use past data to predict the odds of any given team advancing.  My solution was to attempt to establish percentages on my own.  You may agree or disagree, but I think these should be close enough to accomplish the desired goal.  Anyway, here are my estimates based on the matchup combinations in this year's round of 32:

1 vs 8/9 - 1 wins 80% of the time
2 vs 10 - 2 wins 80% of the time
2 vs 7 - 2 wins 70% of the time
3 vs 11 - 3 wins 80% of the time
3 vs 6 - 3 wins 60% of the time
4 vs 5 - 4 wins 50% of the time
12 vs 13 - 12 wins 60% of the time

After applying those numbers to this weekend's games, we get the following results:
 

	Expected Record		Actual Record		% of Wins Expected
Colonial		2.2 - 3.8		4-2		182%
ACC		4.9 - 3.1		7-1		143%
A10		2.6 - 2.4		3-2		115%
Pac 10		3.5 - 3.5		4-3		114%
Mountain West		3.8 - 1.2		4-1		105%
Big Ten		6.9 - 5.1		7-5		101%
SEC		4.5 - 2.5		4-3		89%
Big 12		5.2 - 2.8		4-4		77%
Big East		12.1 - 5.9		9-9		74%
CUSA		0.8 - 1.2		0-2		0%

The first thing that jumps out at me is the ACC.  Their 7-1 record looks amazing until you realize that they were basically expected to be 5-3 at this point.  Yes, they are doing much better than expected, but just because everyone on TV is hyping their start through the first couple of rounds, don't crown them as the winners of the "most overachieving performance by a conference" just yet.  In reality, the Colonial has the lead in that race following VCU's pounding of Purdue to reach the Sweet 16.

As for disappointments, a lot has been said about the Big East and their 9-9 record.  Although they are indeed well below their expected win total of 12 games through the first weekend, they aren't the only conference to disappoint so far.  The Big 12 currently sits ever so slightly above the Big East in my standings, while the SEC is only a disappointing finish away from possibly taking the "honor" of most disappointing.  (I'm leaving out CUSA because of their small sample size and lack of quality seeding.)

Stay tuned for more analysis as the week rolls on...