Tournament Summary - Elite 8

And then there were 8.  It seems like just yesterday that we were starting this tournament.  Now, we are down to just 12% of the original field.  This group of 8 teams includes quite a bit of variety with 7 different conferences and 7 different seeds being represented.  Kansas is the lone 1 seed left, while Butler and VCU are showing that teams usually expected to fall the first weekend can put it all together and go on extended runs.  Here's a complete list of the remaining 8 teams:

1 - Kansas
2 - Florida
2 - North Carolina
3 - Connecticut
4 - Kentucky
5 - Arizona
8 - Butler
11 - Virginia Commonwealth

As for my conference breakdown, here are my estimates based on the matchup combinations we saw in this year's Sweet 16:

1 vs 12 - 1 wins 90% of the time
1 vs 5 - 1 wins 80% of the time
1 vs 4 - 1 wins 70% of the time
2 vs 11 - 2 wins 90% of the time
2 vs 3 - 2 wins 60% of the time
4 vs 8 - 4 wins 70% of the time
10 vs 11 - 10 wins 50% of the time

After applying those numbers to the Sweet 16 games, we get the following results:

	Expected Record		Actual Record		% of Wins Expected
Colonial		2.7 - 4.3		5-2		185%
Pac 10		3.7 - 4.3		5-3		135%
ACC		7.1 - 3.9		8-3		113%
SEC		5.4 - 3.6		6-3		111%
A10		2.7 - 3.3		3-3		111%
Big Ten		8.3 - 5.7		7-7		84%
Mountain West		4.8 - 2.2		4-3		83%
Big 12		6.1 - 2.9		5-4		82%
Big East		12.6 - 7.4		10-10		79%
CUSA		0.8 - 1.2		0-2		0%

Can we crown the Colonial as champs?  We sure can!  With VCU matching up against KU in the Elite 8, even a loss would only drop the CAA down to 179%.  Unless Arizona plans on winning the national championship, this is going to be a runaway victory for the CAA.

On the other end of the spectrum, we have a 4 way race (not counting CUSA).  Both the Big Ten and Mountain West have run out of teams, so their numbers are fixed.  With KU still representing the Big 12 and Connecticut still representing the Big East, both of those leagues have a chance to move up and shed the label "disappointment".

The biggest mover in the last couple of days was the SEC.  Kentucky's upset of Ohio State, along with Florida continuing to take care of business, has led the SEC up in the rankings.  No longer appearing to be a disappointment, the SEC now has a chance to make a case as one of the more impressive performances by a conference.

As always, stay tuned for more analysis as the field continues to shrink...