Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (14):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (3):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Colonial (Drexel & Virginia Commonwealth), MAAC (Iona), Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
Big West (Long Beach State), OVC (Murray State), Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . . 9 (Min: 7, Max: 9)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC:. . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:. . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 52 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Long Beach State, Murray State, Oral Roberts) are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 11 + 37 = 52
The Seeds
Rankd in order within each seed line (magic number for bubble teams in parenthesis)
1 Seeds
Kentucky, Syracuse, Michigan State, Kansas
2 Seeds
Duke, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio State
3 Seeds
Georgetown, Marquette, Baylor, Michigan
4 Seeds
Wisconsin, Louisville, Indiana, Florida
5 Seeds
Florida State, Wichita State, UNLV, Temple
6 Seeds
Notre Dame, Murray State, Vanderbilt, New Mexico
7 Seeds
Gonzaga, Creighton, San Diego State, Virginia (1)
8 Seeds
Purdue (1), Kansas State (1), Memphis (1), Iowa State
9 Seeds
St. Mary's, Southern Mississippi (1), Alabama (1), California (1)
10 Seeds
St. Louis (1), Connecticut (2), Cincinnati (2), West Virginia (3)
11 Seeds
Washington (2), Harvard (2), BYU (1), Arizona (3)
12 Seeds
Seton Hall (2)
Mississippi State (3)
Miami (FL) (3) (Play-In Game)
Xavier (3) (Play-In Game)
Texas (2) (Play-In Game)
Northwestern (2) (Play-In Game)
13 Seeds
Long Beach State (4)
Oral Roberts (2)
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
Closest 12 Out:
Colorado State (2)
South Florida (2)
VCU (2 leaves them right on the bubble, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
Oregon (4)
St. Joseph's (3)
Central Florida (3)
Dayton (4)
Colorado (3)
Dayton (4)
North Carolina State (4)
Drexel (2 leaves them as a longshot, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
Illinois (3)
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 70 RPI):
Akron, Belmont, Davidson, Iona, Louisiana State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Projections Through 2/24/12
Starting today I will be giving a full breakdown of seeding. Each seed is then broken down best to worst from left to right.
Just inside the bubble, Oral Roberts is an interesting case. At the moment, I have them as my last team in. Because they are heavily favored to win their conference tournament, it is unlikely that they will need an atlarge bid. However, if they do, it would mean they suffered a bad loss in their conference tourney, likely moving them to the other side of the bubble. That means that in reality, it is very unlikely that Oral Roberts will actually receive an atlarge bid, but for now, I'm placing them just inside the bubble.
The rest of the 13 seeds, as well as the 14s, 15s, and 16s will be populated by the tournament winners of the "Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues" and the "Probable 1 Bid Leagues". Of those two groups, only Harvard is looking at a higher seed (currently a 10). However, since the Ivy League doesn't have a conference tournament, there is no chance of Harvard being upset and the Ivy League becoming a 2 bid league. Technically, Harvard could collapse and fail to win the regular season title, but at that point, they would have fallen out of the atlarge picture entirely, leaving the Ivy League still as a 1 bid league.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (13):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (5):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State), Colonial (Drexel & Virginia Commonwealth), MAAC (Iona), MAC (Akron), Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State), Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . . 9 (Min: 7, Max: 9)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC:. . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:. . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Oral Roberts, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 11 + 37 = 51
The Seeds
Rankd in order within each seed line (magic number for bubble teams in parenthesis)
1 Seeds
Kentucky, Syracuse, Michigan State, Kansas
2 Seeds
Duke, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State
3 Seeds
Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Georgetown
4 Seeds
Florida State, Florida, Louisville, Indiana
5 Seeds
Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Wichita State, Temple
6 Seeds
UNLV, New Mexico, Murray State , Vanderbilt
7 Seeds
Virginia (1), Kansas State (1), Gonzaga (1), San Diego State (1)
8 Seeds
St. Louis (1), Creighton, St. Mary's (1), California (1)
9 Seeds
Memphis (2), Southern Mississippi (2), Iowa State (1), Purdue (2)
10 Seeds
Alabama (2), West Virginia (2), Connecticut (2), Harvard (2)
11 Seeds
Mississippi State (3), Seton Hall (2), BYU (2), Cincinnati (2)
12 Seeds
Washington (3)
Arizona (4)
Xavier (4) (Play-In Game)
Texas (3) (Play-In Game)
Colorado State (2) (Play-In Game)
Northwestern (3) (Play-In Game)
13 Seeds
Oral Roberts (3)
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
First 6 Out:
Not ranked, just alphabetical order
Central Florida, Long Beach State, Miami (FL), North Carolina State, Oregon, South Florida
Long Shots (10):
Not ranked, just alphasbetical order
Akron, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Illinois, Iona, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, St. Joseph's, Virginia Commonwealth
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Cleveland State, Davidson, La Salle, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Wagner, Weber State
Just inside the bubble, Oral Roberts is an interesting case. At the moment, I have them as my last team in. Because they are heavily favored to win their conference tournament, it is unlikely that they will need an atlarge bid. However, if they do, it would mean they suffered a bad loss in their conference tourney, likely moving them to the other side of the bubble. That means that in reality, it is very unlikely that Oral Roberts will actually receive an atlarge bid, but for now, I'm placing them just inside the bubble.
The rest of the 13 seeds, as well as the 14s, 15s, and 16s will be populated by the tournament winners of the "Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues" and the "Probable 1 Bid Leagues". Of those two groups, only Harvard is looking at a higher seed (currently a 10). However, since the Ivy League doesn't have a conference tournament, there is no chance of Harvard being upset and the Ivy League becoming a 2 bid league. Technically, Harvard could collapse and fail to win the regular season title, but at that point, they would have fallen out of the atlarge picture entirely, leaving the Ivy League still as a 1 bid league.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (13):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (5):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State), Colonial (Drexel & Virginia Commonwealth), MAAC (Iona), MAC (Akron), Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State), Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . . 9 (Min: 7, Max: 9)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC:. . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:. . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Oral Roberts, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 11 + 37 = 51
The Seeds
Rankd in order within each seed line (magic number for bubble teams in parenthesis)
1 Seeds
Kentucky, Syracuse, Michigan State, Kansas
2 Seeds
Duke, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State
3 Seeds
Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Georgetown
4 Seeds
Florida State, Florida, Louisville, Indiana
5 Seeds
Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Wichita State, Temple
6 Seeds
UNLV, New Mexico, Murray State , Vanderbilt
7 Seeds
Virginia (1), Kansas State (1), Gonzaga (1), San Diego State (1)
8 Seeds
St. Louis (1), Creighton, St. Mary's (1), California (1)
9 Seeds
Memphis (2), Southern Mississippi (2), Iowa State (1), Purdue (2)
10 Seeds
Alabama (2), West Virginia (2), Connecticut (2), Harvard (2)
11 Seeds
Mississippi State (3), Seton Hall (2), BYU (2), Cincinnati (2)
12 Seeds
Washington (3)
Arizona (4)
Xavier (4) (Play-In Game)
Texas (3) (Play-In Game)
Colorado State (2) (Play-In Game)
Northwestern (3) (Play-In Game)
13 Seeds
Oral Roberts (3)
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
First 6 Out:
Not ranked, just alphabetical order
Central Florida, Long Beach State, Miami (FL), North Carolina State, Oregon, South Florida
Long Shots (10):
Not ranked, just alphasbetical order
Akron, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Illinois, Iona, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, St. Joseph's, Virginia Commonwealth
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Cleveland State, Davidson, La Salle, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Wagner, Weber State
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Projections Through 2/21/12
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (12):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (6):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel)
MAAC (Iona)
MAC (Akron)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . . 9 (Min: 7, Max: 9)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
CUSA:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Pac 12:. . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC:. . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:. . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Oral Roberts, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 11 + 37 = 51
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse
Fighting For Protected Seeds (16):
Baylor, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Temple, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin
Other Locks (11):
California, Creighton, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Memphis, Murray State, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, St. Louis, St. Mary's, West Virginia
Probable (7):
Magic Number in Parenthesis
Alabama (3), BYU (2), Connecticut (2), Harvard (3), Iowa State (2), Purdue (3), Seton Hall (2)
Last 9 In:
Magic Number in Parenthesis
Arizona (4), Central Florida (4), Cincinnati (3), Colorado State (2), Mississippi State (3), Northwestern (3), Oral Roberts (3), Texas (3), Washington (3)
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
First 6 Out:
Miami (FL), North Carolina State, Oregon, South Florida, St. Joseph's, Xavier
Long Shots (11):
Akron, Arkansas, Colorado, Drexel, Illinois, Iona, Long Beach State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Wyoming
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Cleveland State, Davidson, Dayton, La Salle, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Virginia Commonwealth, Wagner, Weber State
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (6):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel)
MAAC (Iona)
MAC (Akron)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . . 9 (Min: 7, Max: 9)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
CUSA:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Pac 12:. . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC:. . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:. . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Oral Roberts, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 11 + 37 = 51
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse
Fighting For Protected Seeds (16):
Baylor, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Temple, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin
Other Locks (11):
California, Creighton, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Memphis, Murray State, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, St. Louis, St. Mary's, West Virginia
Probable (7):
Magic Number in Parenthesis
Alabama (3), BYU (2), Connecticut (2), Harvard (3), Iowa State (2), Purdue (3), Seton Hall (2)
Last 9 In:
Magic Number in Parenthesis
Arizona (4), Central Florida (4), Cincinnati (3), Colorado State (2), Mississippi State (3), Northwestern (3), Oral Roberts (3), Texas (3), Washington (3)
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
First 6 Out:
Miami (FL), North Carolina State, Oregon, South Florida, St. Joseph's, Xavier
Long Shots (11):
Akron, Arkansas, Colorado, Drexel, Illinois, Iona, Long Beach State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Wyoming
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Cleveland State, Davidson, Dayton, La Salle, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Virginia Commonwealth, Wagner, Weber State
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Projections Through 2/20/12
Today's update includes a new feature. Next to the bubble team's names you will find a number in parenthesis. This is the number of wins I think they need in order to lock up their atlarge spot in the tourney. This number includes both regular season and conference tournament games. Anything less than this "magic number" likely means a trip to the NIT.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (12):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (6):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel)
MAAC (Iona)
MAC (Akron)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . . 9 (Min: 7, Max: 9)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC:. . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:. . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Oral Roberts, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 11 + 37 = 51
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Baylor, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Temple, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Wichita State, Wisconsin
Other Locks (11):
California, Creighton, Gonzaga, Memphis, Murray State, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Virginia, West Virginia
Probable (8):
Magic Number in Parenthesis
Alabama (3), BYU (2), Connecticut (2), Harvard (3), Iowa State (2), Kansas State (3), Mississippi State (3), Purdue (3)
Last 9 In:
Magic Number in Parenthesis
Arizona (4), Cincinnati (3), Miami (FL) (4), Northwestern (3), Oral Roberts (3), Seton Hall (3), Texas (3), Washington (3), Xavier (4)
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
First 5 Out:
Central Florida, Colorado State, North Carolina State, Oregon, St. Joseph's
Long Shots (15):
Akron, Arkansas, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Illinois, Iona, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Nevada, South Florida, Wyoming
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Cleveland State, Davidson, La Salle, Mississippi, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Virginia Commonwealth, Wagner, Weber State
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (12):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (6):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel)
MAAC (Iona)
MAC (Akron)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . . 9 (Min: 7, Max: 9)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC:. . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:. . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Oral Roberts, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 11 + 37 = 51
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Baylor, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Temple, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Wichita State, Wisconsin
Other Locks (11):
California, Creighton, Gonzaga, Memphis, Murray State, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Virginia, West Virginia
Probable (8):
Magic Number in Parenthesis
Alabama (3), BYU (2), Connecticut (2), Harvard (3), Iowa State (2), Kansas State (3), Mississippi State (3), Purdue (3)
Last 9 In:
Magic Number in Parenthesis
Arizona (4), Cincinnati (3), Miami (FL) (4), Northwestern (3), Oral Roberts (3), Seton Hall (3), Texas (3), Washington (3), Xavier (4)
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
First 5 Out:
Central Florida, Colorado State, North Carolina State, Oregon, St. Joseph's
Long Shots (15):
Akron, Arkansas, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Illinois, Iona, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Nevada, South Florida, Wyoming
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Cleveland State, Davidson, La Salle, Mississippi, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Virginia Commonwealth, Wagner, Weber State
Monday, February 20, 2012
Projections Through 2/19/12
I decided to move a couple teams out of the "bubble has popped" category and bump them up as "long shots". However, both Iona and Akron must win out in their regular seasons if they want to keep even the slimmest of hopes alive.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (12):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (6):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel)
MAAC (Iona)
MAC (Akron)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 9 (Min: 7, Max: 9)
Big 10: 7 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
SEC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
WCC: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Oral Roberts, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 11 + 37 = 51
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Baylor, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Temple, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Wichita State, Wisconsin
Other Locks (11):
California, Creighton, Gonzaga, Memphis, Murray State, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Virginia, West Virginia
Probable (7):
Alabama, BYU, Harvard, Iowa State, Kansas State, Mississippi State, Purdue
Last 10 In:
Arizona, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Miami (FL), Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Seton Hall, Texas, Washington, Xavier
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
First 5 Out:
Central Florida, Colorado State, North Carolina State, Oregon, St. Joseph's
Long Shots (14):
Akron, Arkansas, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Illinois, Iona, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Nevada, Wyoming
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Cleveland State, Davidson, La Salle, Mississippi, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, South Florida, Virginia Commonwealth, Wagner, Weber State
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (12):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (6):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel)
MAAC (Iona)
MAC (Akron)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 9 (Min: 7, Max: 9)
Big 10: 7 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
SEC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
WCC: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Oral Roberts, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 11 + 37 = 51
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Baylor, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Temple, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Wichita State, Wisconsin
Other Locks (11):
California, Creighton, Gonzaga, Memphis, Murray State, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Virginia, West Virginia
Probable (7):
Alabama, BYU, Harvard, Iowa State, Kansas State, Mississippi State, Purdue
Last 10 In:
Arizona, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Miami (FL), Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Seton Hall, Texas, Washington, Xavier
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
First 5 Out:
Central Florida, Colorado State, North Carolina State, Oregon, St. Joseph's
Long Shots (14):
Akron, Arkansas, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Illinois, Iona, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Nevada, Wyoming
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Cleveland State, Davidson, La Salle, Mississippi, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, South Florida, Virginia Commonwealth, Wagner, Weber State
Sunday, February 19, 2012
This year's bubble
In my last update, I listed 6 teams on the wrong side of the bubble as "First 6 out". Why not list 8 teams (first 4 out, next 4 out) like so many other bracketologists do? The answer is simple... the bubble is likely to tighten over the next couple weeks, and if you aren't close to it now, it is going to be really hard to work your way into an atlarge spot by Selection Sunday. Let me explain:
The current projections assume that Murray State wins the OVC Tournament and the OVC becomes a 1 bid league. Same with Oral Roberts in the Summit and Nevada in the WAC. There are actually an abnormally large number of conferences this year (14 at the moment) with a league leader who is worthy of an atlarge bid. Most years, that number is in the 10-12 range. What this means is that there are fewer conferences yet locked into 1 bid status. With zero upsets in conference tourneys, this would lead to a really soft bubble. Notice that I am currently projecting the top 52 teams in the country will make the field of 68. (16 undeserving teams make it as well) As conference tourney upsets occur, teams will begin to "steal" bids, meaning this number (52) will start to drop. By Selection Sunday, I predict that we will be looking at the top 50 teams making the Big Dance, which means the cut line will have moved up 2 spots.
Moral of the story: if your favorite team is just inside the current cut line you better be hoping that they finish strong. Every year, the bubble seems to tighten as conference tourneys are completed, and this year is setting up to be no different.
The current projections assume that Murray State wins the OVC Tournament and the OVC becomes a 1 bid league. Same with Oral Roberts in the Summit and Nevada in the WAC. There are actually an abnormally large number of conferences this year (14 at the moment) with a league leader who is worthy of an atlarge bid. Most years, that number is in the 10-12 range. What this means is that there are fewer conferences yet locked into 1 bid status. With zero upsets in conference tourneys, this would lead to a really soft bubble. Notice that I am currently projecting the top 52 teams in the country will make the field of 68. (16 undeserving teams make it as well) As conference tourney upsets occur, teams will begin to "steal" bids, meaning this number (52) will start to drop. By Selection Sunday, I predict that we will be looking at the top 50 teams making the Big Dance, which means the cut line will have moved up 2 spots.
Moral of the story: if your favorite team is just inside the current cut line you better be hoping that they finish strong. Every year, the bubble seems to tighten as conference tourneys are completed, and this year is setting up to be no different.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Projections Through 2/16/12
I'll have an update later tonight with some commentary on this latest set of projections.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (14):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MEAC, MAAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (3):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
WAC (Nevada)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 8 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 10: 7 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 6 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
SEC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 5)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
WCC: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12: 3 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
CUSA: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 52 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Oral Roberts, Murray State, Nevada) are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 11 + 37 = 52
Fighting For #1 Seeds (9):
Baylor, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, New Mexico, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, Temple, UNLV, Wichita State, Wisconsin
Other Locks (8):
Creighton, Memphis, Notre Dame, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Vanderbilt, Virginia, West Virginia
Probable (10):
BYU, California, Connecticut, Harvard, Iowa State, Mississippi State, Murray State, Purdue, Seton Hall, Texas
Last 10 In:
Alabama, Arizona, Kansas State, Illinois, Miami (FL), Nevada, North Carolina State, Oral Roberts, Washington, Xavier
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
First 6 Out:
Arkansas, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Long Beach State, Minnesota, Northwestern
Long Shots (12):
Akron, Central Florida, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Louisiana State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Wyoming
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Bucknell, Buffalo, Davidson, Iona, Kent State, Massachusetts, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, South Florida, Virginia Commonwealth, Wagner
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (14):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MEAC, MAAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (3):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
WAC (Nevada)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 8 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 10: 7 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 6 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
SEC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 5)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
WCC: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12: 3 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
CUSA: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 52 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Oral Roberts, Murray State, Nevada) are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 11 + 37 = 52
Fighting For #1 Seeds (9):
Baylor, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, New Mexico, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, Temple, UNLV, Wichita State, Wisconsin
Other Locks (8):
Creighton, Memphis, Notre Dame, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Vanderbilt, Virginia, West Virginia
Probable (10):
BYU, California, Connecticut, Harvard, Iowa State, Mississippi State, Murray State, Purdue, Seton Hall, Texas
Last 10 In:
Alabama, Arizona, Kansas State, Illinois, Miami (FL), Nevada, North Carolina State, Oral Roberts, Washington, Xavier
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
First 6 Out:
Arkansas, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Long Beach State, Minnesota, Northwestern
Long Shots (12):
Akron, Central Florida, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Louisiana State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Wyoming
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Bucknell, Buffalo, Davidson, Iona, Kent State, Massachusetts, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, South Florida, Virginia Commonwealth, Wagner
Monday, February 13, 2012
Projections Through 2/12/12
Starting today, I am adding a list of the projected multi-bid conferences. I am also projecting the minimum and maxmum number of bids that each conference might receive.
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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (15):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Great West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MEAC, MAAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (5):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel & Virginia Commonwealth)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big 10: 8 (Min: 7, Max: 8)
Big East: 8 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
SEC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 5)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
WCC: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
CUSA: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Pac 10: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 49 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Murray State & Harvard) are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 10 + 37 = 49
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
Baylor, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse
Fighting For Protected Seeds (17):
Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, St. Mary's, Temple, UNLV, Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin
Other Locks (6):
Creighton, Florida, Memphis, St. Louis, Vanderbilt, West Virginia
Probable (8):
BYU, California, Connecticut, Harvard, Iowa State, Mississippi State, Murray State, Notre Dame
Last 10 In:
Alabama, Colorado State, Kansas State, Miami (FL), Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, Seton Hall, Texas, Xavier
- - - -- - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
First 8 Out:
Arizona, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Nevada, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Wyoming
Long Shots (13):
Akron, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Virginia Commonwealth, Washington
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Bucknell, Central Florida, Davidson, Iona, Massachusetts, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, Pittsburgh, South Dakota State, South Florida, Wagner
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (15):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Great West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MEAC, MAAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (5):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel & Virginia Commonwealth)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big 10: 8 (Min: 7, Max: 8)
Big East: 8 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
SEC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 5)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
WCC: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
CUSA: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Pac 10: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 49 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Murray State & Harvard) are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 10 + 37 = 49
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
Baylor, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse
Fighting For Protected Seeds (17):
Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, St. Mary's, Temple, UNLV, Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin
Other Locks (6):
Creighton, Florida, Memphis, St. Louis, Vanderbilt, West Virginia
Probable (8):
BYU, California, Connecticut, Harvard, Iowa State, Mississippi State, Murray State, Notre Dame
Last 10 In:
Alabama, Colorado State, Kansas State, Miami (FL), Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, Seton Hall, Texas, Xavier
- - - -- - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
First 8 Out:
Arizona, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Nevada, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Wyoming
Long Shots (13):
Akron, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Virginia Commonwealth, Washington
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Bucknell, Central Florida, Davidson, Iona, Massachusetts, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, Pittsburgh, South Dakota State, South Florida, Wagner
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Projections Through 2/6/12
In my next update I will be adding some additional commentary. For now, here's a standard update.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (15):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Great West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MEAC, MAAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (5):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Virginia Commonwealth)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 49 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Murray State & Harvard) are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 10 + 37 = 49
Fighting For #1 Seeds (7):
Baylor, Duke, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse
Fighting For Protected Seeds (18):
Creighton, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Kansas, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, Murray State, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, St. Mary's, Temple, UNLV, Virginia, Wisconsin
Probable (16):
Alabama, BYU, Colorado State, Connecticut, Harvard, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa State, Kansas State, Memphis, Mississippi State, New Mexico, St. Louis, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Wichita State
Last 8 In:
California, Miami (FL), Minnesota, Notre Dame, Purdue, Seton Hall, Wyoming, Xavier
First 8 Out:
Arizona, Arkansas, Nevada, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Texas, Washington
Long Shots (13):
Central Florida, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Ohio, Pittsburgh, St. Joseph's, Virginia Commonwealth
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Akron, Bucknell, Cleveland State, Davidson, Duquesne, Iona, La Salle, Massachusetts, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, Wagner
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (15):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Great West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MEAC, MAAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (5):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Virginia Commonwealth)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 49 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Murray State & Harvard) are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 10 + 37 = 49
Fighting For #1 Seeds (7):
Baylor, Duke, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse
Fighting For Protected Seeds (18):
Creighton, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Kansas, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, Murray State, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, St. Mary's, Temple, UNLV, Virginia, Wisconsin
Probable (16):
Alabama, BYU, Colorado State, Connecticut, Harvard, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa State, Kansas State, Memphis, Mississippi State, New Mexico, St. Louis, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Wichita State
Last 8 In:
California, Miami (FL), Minnesota, Notre Dame, Purdue, Seton Hall, Wyoming, Xavier
First 8 Out:
Arizona, Arkansas, Nevada, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Texas, Washington
Long Shots (13):
Central Florida, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Ohio, Pittsburgh, St. Joseph's, Virginia Commonwealth
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Akron, Bucknell, Cleveland State, Davidson, Duquesne, Iona, La Salle, Massachusetts, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, Wagner
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