Projections Through 2/19/12

I decided to move a couple teams out of the "bubble has popped" category and bump them up as "long shots".  However, both Iona and Akron must win out in their regular seasons if they want to keep even the slimmest of hopes alive.

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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (12):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (6):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel)
MAAC (Iona)
MAC (Akron)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)
Summit (Oral Roberts)

Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:      9 (Min: 7, Max: 9)
Big 10:        7 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12:        6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC:           5 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
SEC:           5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10:          3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
WCC:           3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:        3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:          2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC:           2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:      1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:      1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC:          1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC:           1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC:           1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:        1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:      1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC:           1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)


20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 51 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Oral Roberts, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 11 + 37 = 51


Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse

Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Baylor, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Temple, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Other Locks (11):
California, Creighton, Gonzaga, Memphis, Murray State, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Virginia, West Virginia

Probable (7):
Alabama, BYU, Harvard, Iowa State, Kansas State, Mississippi State, Purdue

Last 10 In:
Arizona, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Miami (FL), Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Seton Hall, Texas, Washington, Xavier


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First 5 Out:
Central Florida, Colorado State, North Carolina State, Oregon, St. Joseph's

Long Shots (14):
Akron, Arkansas, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Illinois, Iona, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Nevada, Wyoming

Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Cleveland State, Davidson, La Salle, Mississippi, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, South Florida, Virginia Commonwealth, Wagner, Weber State