In my last update, I listed 6 teams on the wrong side of the bubble as "First 6 out". Why not list 8 teams (first 4 out, next 4 out) like so many other bracketologists do? The answer is simple... the bubble is likely to tighten over the next couple weeks, and if you aren't close to it now, it is going to be really hard to work your way into an atlarge spot by Selection Sunday. Let me explain:
The current projections assume that Murray State wins the OVC Tournament and the OVC becomes a 1 bid league. Same with Oral Roberts in the Summit and Nevada in the WAC. There are actually an abnormally large number of conferences this year (14 at the moment) with a league leader who is worthy of an atlarge bid. Most years, that number is in the 10-12 range. What this means is that there are fewer conferences yet locked into 1 bid status. With zero upsets in conference tourneys, this would lead to a really soft bubble. Notice that I am currently projecting the top 52 teams in the country will make the field of 68. (16 undeserving teams make it as well) As conference tourney upsets occur, teams will begin to "steal" bids, meaning this number (52) will start to drop. By Selection Sunday, I predict that we will be looking at the top 50 teams making the Big Dance, which means the cut line will have moved up 2 spots.
Moral of the story: if your favorite team is just inside the current cut line you better be hoping that they finish strong. Every year, the bubble seems to tighten as conference tourneys are completed, and this year is setting up to be no different.
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