Projections Through 2/12/12

Starting today, I am adding a list of the projected multi-bid conferences.  I am also projecting the minimum and maxmum number of bids that each conference might receive.


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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (15):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Great West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MEAC, MAAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (5):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel & Virginia Commonwealth)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)
WAC (Nevada)

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)

Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big 10:        8 (Min: 7, Max: 8)
Big East:      8 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12:        6 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
ACC:           5 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
SEC:           5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 5)
A-10:          3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
WCC:           3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
CUSA:          2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC:           2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:      2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:      1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Pac 10:        1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:        1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:      1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC:           1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)


21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 49 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Murray State & Harvard) are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 10 + 37 = 49


Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
Baylor, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse

Fighting For Protected Seeds (17):
Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, St. Mary's, Temple, UNLV, Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Other Locks (6):
Creighton, Florida, Memphis, St. Louis, Vanderbilt, West Virginia

Probable (8):
BYU, California, Connecticut, Harvard, Iowa State, Mississippi State, Murray State, Notre Dame

Last 10 In:
Alabama, Colorado State, Kansas State, Miami (FL), Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, Seton Hall, Texas, Xavier


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First 8 Out:
Arizona, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Nevada, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Wyoming

Long Shots (13):
Akron, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Long Beach State, Louisiana State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Virginia Commonwealth, Washington

Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Bucknell, Central Florida, Davidson, Iona, Massachusetts, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, Pittsburgh, South Dakota State, South Florida, Wagner