Projections Through 2/16/12

I'll have an update later tonight with some commentary on this latest set of projections.

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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (14):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MEAC, MAAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (3):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Big West (Long Beach State)
Colonial (Drexel)
Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
OVC (Murray State)
Summit (Oral Roberts)
WAC (Nevada)

Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:      8 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 10:        7 (Min: 6, Max: 8)
Big 12:        6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC:           6 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
SEC:           5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 5)
A-10:          3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
WCC:           3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:        3 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
CUSA:          2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC:           2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:      1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:      1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:        1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:      1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC:           1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)


20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 52 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Oral Roberts, Murray State, Nevada) are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 11 + 37 = 52



Fighting For #1 Seeds (9):
Baylor, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio State, Syracuse

Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, New Mexico, San Diego State, Southern Mississippi, Temple, UNLV, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Other Locks (8):
Creighton, Memphis, Notre Dame, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Vanderbilt, Virginia, West Virginia

Probable (10):
BYU, California, Connecticut, Harvard, Iowa State, Mississippi State, Murray State, Purdue, Seton Hall, Texas

Last 10 In:
Alabama, Arizona, Kansas State, Illinois, Miami (FL), Nevada, North Carolina State, Oral Roberts, Washington, Xavier


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First 6 Out:
Arkansas, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Long Beach State, Minnesota, Northwestern

Long Shots (12):
Akron, Central Florida, Colorado, Dayton, Drexel, Louisiana State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Wyoming

Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 80 RPI):
Belmont, Bucknell, Buffalo, Davidson, Iona, Kent State, Massachusetts, New Mexico State, Norfolk State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, South Florida, Virginia Commonwealth, Wagner