Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (16):
Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League will not have a surprise 2nd team
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Colonial (Drexel & Virginia Commonwealth)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Could Become Multi-Bid League if Regular Season Winner Losses in Conference Tournament
Big West (Long Beach State), OVC (Murray State), Summit (Oral Roberts)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Big West:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAAC:. . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MAC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
OVC: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Summit:. . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Sun Belt:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 52 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Long Beach State, Murray State, Oral Roberts) are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 11 + 37 = 52
The Seeds
Rankd in order within each seed line (magic number for bubble teams in parenthesis)
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Duke
2 - North Carolina, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State
3 - Georgetown, Baylor, Michigan, Marquette
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Wichita State
5 - Louisville, Florida, Temple, Vanderbilt
6 - UNLV, Notre Dame, Murray State, New Mexico
7 - Creighton, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Purdue
8 - Memphis, Kansas State, Iowa State, Virginia (1)
9 - St. Mary's, Cincinnati (1), Southern Mississippi, St. Louis
10 - Alabama, California (1), Washington (1), Harvard (1)
11 - BYU, West Virginia (2), Arizona (2), Seton Hall (2)
12 Seeds
South Florida (1)
Mississippi State (1)
Long Beach State (3 makes them probable, 4 gives them the auto-bid)
Oral Roberts (2)
Connecticut (2) (Play-In Game)
Texas (1) (Play-In Game)
13 Seeds
Colorado State (1) (Play-In Game)
Northwestern (2) (Play-In Game)
- - - - - - - - - - - CUT LINE - - - - - - - - - - -
Last 9 Out:
Xavier (3)
Oregon (3)
Miami-FL (3)
VCU (2 leaves them right on the bubble, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
North Carolina State (3)
Drexel (2 leaves them as a longshot, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
Central Florida (3)
St. Joseph's (2 leaves them as a longshot, 3 gives them the auto-bid)
Colorado (3)
Bubbles That Have Popped (Top 70 RPI):
Belmont, Davidson, Dayton, Iona, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Weber State
Hey JH4P, as always, love the work!
ReplyDeleteJust curious what you see in USF and Seton Hall over Xavier, St Joe, and Miami. How'd the heck did you decide who to go with? All their resumes look the same!
And is UConn really that close to the bubble? Their numbers are stronger than anyone elses besides the conference record.
FWIW, you're the reason I started doing my own projections every year. Have loved your stuff since I first saw it on ValleyTalk
Take care. Should be a wild week
Steve,
ReplyDeleteSorry about the slow response. I try to resond to everyone who emails me if at all possible. I know that things have changed in the last 4 days, but here's an explanation anyway.
UConn should be safe now that they won a couple of Big East games, but they were far from a lock 4 days ago. My main concern was if they suffered a bad loss. After going 8-10 in the Big East, a first round loss to DePaul in the Big East Tournament would have probably knocked them into the NIT. Now, after beating West Virginia last night, I have them up to a 10 seed with room to improve if they keep winning.
As for the clump of teams right at the bubble, I agree that it is hard to separate them sometimes. I will say that St. Joe's is definitely a step below the others your listed. With 5 losses in the 51-100 range and 3 more losses outside the top 100, St. Joe's needs some quality wins to help counter those negatives, and 2 top 50 wins isn't enough. Playing in the A-10 Tournament will give them some opportunities, but they probably need to reach the finals to have any chance at all for at atlarge bid.
Just as a point of comparison, look at South Florida. They also have 3 losses outside the top 100, just like St. Joe's. However, they are 5-0 vs teams 51-100 compared to St. Joe's record of 4-5 against similar teams. South Florida also has an RPI about 10 spots higher than St. Joe's.
Thank you for the compliments, and good luck on your projections!