Oral Roberts fell to Western Illinois last night in the semi-finals of the Summit League Tourney. A bad loss like that was not what they needed, and it seems hard to envision the Golden Eagles anywhere but the NIT at this point.
In the CAA, Virginia Commonwealth ended Drexel's 19 game winning streak and claimed the auto-bid. Drexel will be an interesting bubble team. Although they were 27-6, the regular season winner of the 15th rated conference, and on a huge winning streak before last night, they also have a mere 4 top 100 wins with only 1 against a top 50 team. Their SOS (over 200) would be the highest in the last 10 years to receive an atlarge bid.
I adjusted Washington downward after re-evaluating their resume. Their biggest win (@ Arizona) took a big hit when Wildcats lost to RPI #248 Arizona State on Sunday. Washington now lacks a win over any likely tournament teams and will probably need to make a finals appearance in the Pac 12 Tournament in order to secure their bid. Since they are the 1 seed, I think they have a reasonable chance of making it that far, so I decided to place Washington as my last 11 seed for the time being.
Finally, I moved the Ivy League out of the "Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues" category. If Penn manages to win at Princeton tonight, they will force a 1 game playoff with Harvard for the Ivy League championship. Should Penn win that game as well as earn the auto-bid, Harvard might still be in the picture for an atlarge. Penn has moved into the top 100 of the RPI, so the loss wouldn't necessarily be a bad loss on Harvard's resume. They would definitely be sweating it out on Selection Sunday, but 25-5 might be just good enough.
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Auto Bids (8 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big South - UNC Asheville
CAA - Virginia Commonwealth
MAAC - Loyola-MD
MVC - Creighton
OVC - Murray State
Southern - Davidson
WCC - St. Mary's
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (18):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2):
2nd Bid is unlikely, but can't be ruled out yet
Colonial (Drexel)
Ivy (Harvard)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:. . .10 (Min: 8, Max: 10)
Big 10:. . . . 7 (Min: 6, Max: 7)
Big 12:. . . . 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: . . . . . 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
ACC: . . . . . 4 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
WCC: . . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
A-10:. . . . . 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Pac 12:. . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:. . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
MVC: . . . . . 2 (Min: 2, Max: 2)
Colonial:. . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Ivy: . . . . . 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders (Harvard, Murray State) are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 11 + 37 = 50
The Seeds
Ranked in order within each seed line, auto-bid winners in bold
1 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina
2 - Ohio State, Duke, Missouri, Michigan State
3 - Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown, Baylor
4 - Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple
5 - Wichita State, Louisville, Florida, UNLV
6 - Vanderbilt, Murray State, Creighton, Notre Dame
7 - New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga
8 - Memphis, Iowa State, Kansas State, Purdue
9 - Virginia, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Alabama
10 - Southern Mississippi, California, Harvard, West Virginia
11 - Connecticut, Mississippi State, BYU, Washington
12 - Northwestern, South Florida, Colorado State (Play-In), Xavier (Play-In), Texas (Play-In), Seton Hall (Play-In)
13 - Virginia Commonwealth, Belmont, Davidson, Auto-Bid
14 - Loyola-MD, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid
15 - UNC Asheville, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid
16 - Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid, Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In), Auto-Bid (Play-In)
Last 8 In:
BYU (lost in MWC semis, rooting against fellow bubble teams still playing who could pass them)
Washington (#1 seed in Pac 12 Tourney but lacking quality wins, need to reach finals to feel safe)
Northwestern (must beat Minnesota to remain in discussion, must then beat Michigan to feel safe)
South Florida (a bad loss to Villanova/Rutgers would pop their bubble, may also need to beat ND)
Colorado State (Likely need to beat TCU in MWC Tourney to feel safe)
Xavier (Likely need to beat Dayton/George Washington in A10 Tourney to feel safe)
Texas (Likely need to beat Iowa State in Big 12 Tourney to feel safe)
Seton Hall (a bad loss to Providence would pop their bubble, likely also need to beat Louisville)
First 9 Out:
Oregon (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
Miami-FL (Likely need to win 2 games in ACC Tourney to secure atlarge bid)
Tennessee (Need to reach SEC semi-finals for atlarge chance, probably need to reach SEC finals)
Drexel (lost in CAA final, rooting against fellow bubble teams still playing)
Arizona (Likely need a championship game appearance in Pac 12 Tourney for chance at atlarge bid)
North Carolina State (Need 2 ACC Tourney wins for atlarge chance, finals appearance to feel safe)
St. Joseph's (Need to reach finals in A10 Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Mississippi (Need to reach finals in SEC Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
Central Florida (Need to reach finals in CUSA Tourney for atlarge chance, likely still not enough)
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