Tournament Summary 2012 - Down to 32 Teams

Just like last year, I am going to once again provide a look at how the conferences are doing relative to expectations based on seeding.  For a more detailed breakdown of how I do my analysis, click here for last year's post.  By running the numbers on all the conferences, we can see which conferences have truly over performed and which ones have been disappointing.  It is still early, and the sample size is small, but things are beginning to take shape.

	Expected Record		Actual Record		% of Wins Expected
Pac 12		0.8 - 1.2		1-1		125%
A10		1.7 - 2.3		2-2		118%
WCC		1.8 - 2.2		2-2		111%
SEC		2.8 - 1.2		3-1		107%
Big Ten		4.7 - 1.3		5-1		106%
Big 12		4.0 - 2.0		4-2		100%
Big East		6.6 - 3.4		6-4		91%
ACC		3.5 - 1.5		3-2		86%
MVC		1.2 - 0.8		1-1		83%
Mountain West		2.4 - 1.6		1-3		42%
MAAC		0.6 - 1.4		0-2		0%
CUSA		1.0 - 1.0		0-2		0%

A few notes on the table above:

• % of Expected Wins is calculated as (actual wins) / (expected wins)
• First Four games were included. In those cases, games were between evenly matched seeds, so I simply gave each team a 50% chance of winning. This is why the Big East has played 10 games with only 9 teams. (South Florida has won twice already)
• Only multibid leagues were considered. One bid leagues are way too small a sample size.  For example, Norfolk State won as a 15 seed, giving the MEAC a 1000% in the far right column.
• The MAAC and CUSA are both really small sample sizes too.  I included them in this chart but will be leaving them off of all updates the rest of the way.