Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes. I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid. If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.
Gonzaga has become a brand name over the past decade. They have risen from a relative unknown mid-major out West into an NCAA Tournament staple. One way to see just how much national attention they now draw is to look at how they have been discussed this year. Throughout December and January, numerous articles came out wondering "Could Gonzaga miss the tourney this year?" The fact that that question was even being asked shows just how far they have come.
Currently, Gonzaga looks like they may have done enough to extend their streak of NCAA bids. With a record of 20-9 overall and 11-3 in the WCC, they may not be as dominant as they have been in recent years, but they are a home win against lowly Cal State Bakersfield away from atleast a share of yet another conference title. Their RPI is only 64, but with 7 top 100 wins, and 4 of those coming away from home, they have a lot of ammo to help overcome a mediocre RPI.
Remaining schedule:
Cal State Bakersfield
Estimated RPI:
67 - Finish 1-0
82 - Finish 0-1
What they need:
Gonzaga finds itself blessed to play in a conference where the top 2 seeds get byes all the way to the semi-finals of the conference tournament. That means just a pair of wins and Gonzaga doesn't have to sweat it out on Selection Sunday. As it stands right now, their most likely opponent in the semis will be RPI #118 San Francisco. Obviously, a win there won't do much for Gonzaga's RPI, but a loss to St. Mary's in the final wouldn't hurt their RPI much either. I think it is safe to say that Gonzaga's RPI will be in the 60's should they make it to the finals and then lose to St. Mary's on March 7th. A loss in the semis and Gonzaga can start printing NIT tickets for the first time in a long while. Thankfully for them, I think they have a good chance of avoiding any losses between now and the championship game. I would say the odds are about 90% in their favor.
So what are Gonzaga's odds of receiving a bid if they lose to St. Mary's? Their RPI isn't much help, but in the first year of the expanded tournament field of 68, it doesn't look quite as bad as it usually would. Wins over Marquette, Baylor, Xavier, and Oklahoma State in the non-conference are helpful, and having an 8 game winning streak prior to losing a game makes for a strong finish. Overall, the Committee could go either way withe a hard time with this resume, and I think it could go either way. I'll say 50/50. That puts their overall shot at an atlarge worthy resume at 80%. Unfortunately, they may need to be WCC tournament champions in order to develop a resume that they would then no longer need.
Summary:
Gonzaga will need to win the WCC tourney or they will face a 50/50 chance at receiving an atlarge bid.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Projections Through 2/27/11
12:50 PM
ALRIGHT, BLOGGER SEEMS TO BE WORKING BETTER NOW AND I THINK I HAVE FIXED ALL THE PROBLEMS IT CREATED. LET ME KNOW IF YOU SEE ANYTHING WRONG, AND AS ALWAYS, I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS.
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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 4 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 3)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 11 + 37 = 50
Fighting For #1 Seeds (9):
BYU, Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (9):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Kansas State, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (17 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Washington - 90%
Florida State - 90%
Virginia Tech - 90%
Marquette - 90%
Georgia - 85%
Illinois - 80%
Gonzaga - 80%
Utah State - 70%
Michigan State - 65%
Butler - 60%
UAB - 50%
St. Mary’s - 50%
Richmond - 40%
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Michigan - 35%
Alabama - 30%
Memphis - 30%
----- CUT LINE -----
Clemson - 30%
Missouri State - 30%
Boston College - 25%
Colorado - 25%
Baylor - 20%
Washington State - 20%
Colorado State - 10%
Marshall - 10%
Cleveland State - 10%
USC - 5%
Maryland - 5%
Nebraska - 5%
Penn State - 5%
Minnesota - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Harvard (19-5, RPI 44) - Without a conference tourney, they can't afford another loss
Princeton (21-5, RPI 50) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Belmont (27-4, RPI 51) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Wichita State (22-7, RPI 53) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 90
Oakland (21-9, RPI 56) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
Central Florida (17-9, RPI 59) - Started 13-0, but are 4-9 since then
Oklahoma State (17-11, RPI 61) - Currently 5-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Drexel (20-9, RPI 63) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, RPI 65) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 50
Dayton (19-10, RPI 66) - 1-5 vs top 50 + Not enough opportunity left to raise their RPI
California (16-13, RPI 67) - Not enough big wins to counter a 14th loss
Miami FL (17-12, RPI 68) - Currently 5-9 in the ACC
UTEP (20-8, RPI 70) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
ALRIGHT, BLOGGER SEEMS TO BE WORKING BETTER NOW AND I THINK I HAVE FIXED ALL THE PROBLEMS IT CREATED. LET ME KNOW IF YOU SEE ANYTHING WRONG, AND AS ALWAYS, I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS.
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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 4 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 3)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 11 + 37 = 50
Fighting For #1 Seeds (9):
BYU, Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (9):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Kansas State, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (17 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Washington - 90%
Florida State - 90%
Virginia Tech - 90%
Marquette - 90%
Georgia - 85%
Illinois - 80%
Gonzaga - 80%
Utah State - 70%
Michigan State - 65%
Butler - 60%
UAB - 50%
St. Mary’s - 50%
Richmond - 40%
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Michigan - 35%
Alabama - 30%
Memphis - 30%
----- CUT LINE -----
Clemson - 30%
Missouri State - 30%
Boston College - 25%
Colorado - 25%
Baylor - 20%
Washington State - 20%
Colorado State - 10%
Marshall - 10%
Cleveland State - 10%
USC - 5%
Maryland - 5%
Nebraska - 5%
Penn State - 5%
Minnesota - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Harvard (19-5, RPI 44) - Without a conference tourney, they can't afford another loss
Princeton (21-5, RPI 50) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Belmont (27-4, RPI 51) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Wichita State (22-7, RPI 53) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 90
Oakland (21-9, RPI 56) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
Central Florida (17-9, RPI 59) - Started 13-0, but are 4-9 since then
Oklahoma State (17-11, RPI 61) - Currently 5-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Drexel (20-9, RPI 63) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, RPI 65) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 50
Dayton (19-10, RPI 66) - 1-5 vs top 50 + Not enough opportunity left to raise their RPI
California (16-13, RPI 67) - Not enough big wins to counter a 14th loss
Miami FL (17-12, RPI 68) - Currently 5-9 in the ACC
UTEP (20-8, RPI 70) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Team of the Day - Alabama - 30% Chance
As I mentioned yesterday, I am beginning a new feature at March_24_7. Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes. I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid. If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.
Alabama is an odd case. It seems almost impossible to reconcile all the components of their resume. You look at one stat, and say they are in for sure. Then, you look at another stat and wonder why they are even in the conversation at all. Regardless of what any of us think, this one is going to come down to the Committee. How will they interpret Alabama's odd resume? Only time will tell, but in the meantime, let's try to make an educated guess.
Alabama currently sits at 19-9 overall, 11-3 in the SEC. They are dominating the SEC West with a 4 game lead and are tied for first place overall with Florida. Normally, your instincts would tell you that this team is a shoe-in for an NCAA bid. However, I have yet to mention Alabama's surprising RPI. Believe it or not, their RPI currently sits at 89, well outside the normal range for atlarge condenders.
So how can their record look so good, yet their RPI be so bad? Well, for starters, all of the power in the SEC this year is focused in the SEC East. It is likely that 5 of those 6 teams will be dancing this year. Over in the West, Alabama is the only team even sniffing a bid. Let's just say that Florida's 11-3 SEC record is much more impressive then Alabama's 11-3 mark.
Finally, Alabama had a really poor non-conference season. Their non-conf RPI currently sits in the 200s. That is not non-conf SOS. That is actually RPI. They went 8-6 without a single quality win before SEC play started. Inside SEC play, they have mostly taken care of business in games they should win, along with wins over Kentucky and Tennessee.
Remaining schedule:
@ Florida
Georgia
Estimated RPI:
68 - Finish 2-0
82 - Finish 1-1
What they need:
If Alabama receives an atlarge, it will be in spite of their RPI, not due to it. Should they finish 1-1 in the regular season, they will need a championship game appearance in the SEC tourney to have any chance at receiving a bid. Even then, I would only give them a 50/50 shot since their final RPI would likely be in the high 50s at best. Finishing 2-0 in the regular season may be necessary. At that point, 1 win in the SEC tourney should be enough.
Summary:
Alabama must win 3 more games this year (regular season + SEC Tournament) in order to receive an NCAA bid.
Alabama is an odd case. It seems almost impossible to reconcile all the components of their resume. You look at one stat, and say they are in for sure. Then, you look at another stat and wonder why they are even in the conversation at all. Regardless of what any of us think, this one is going to come down to the Committee. How will they interpret Alabama's odd resume? Only time will tell, but in the meantime, let's try to make an educated guess.
Alabama currently sits at 19-9 overall, 11-3 in the SEC. They are dominating the SEC West with a 4 game lead and are tied for first place overall with Florida. Normally, your instincts would tell you that this team is a shoe-in for an NCAA bid. However, I have yet to mention Alabama's surprising RPI. Believe it or not, their RPI currently sits at 89, well outside the normal range for atlarge condenders.
So how can their record look so good, yet their RPI be so bad? Well, for starters, all of the power in the SEC this year is focused in the SEC East. It is likely that 5 of those 6 teams will be dancing this year. Over in the West, Alabama is the only team even sniffing a bid. Let's just say that Florida's 11-3 SEC record is much more impressive then Alabama's 11-3 mark.
Finally, Alabama had a really poor non-conference season. Their non-conf RPI currently sits in the 200s. That is not non-conf SOS. That is actually RPI. They went 8-6 without a single quality win before SEC play started. Inside SEC play, they have mostly taken care of business in games they should win, along with wins over Kentucky and Tennessee.
Remaining schedule:
@ Florida
Georgia
Estimated RPI:
68 - Finish 2-0
82 - Finish 1-1
What they need:
If Alabama receives an atlarge, it will be in spite of their RPI, not due to it. Should they finish 1-1 in the regular season, they will need a championship game appearance in the SEC tourney to have any chance at receiving a bid. Even then, I would only give them a 50/50 shot since their final RPI would likely be in the high 50s at best. Finishing 2-0 in the regular season may be necessary. At that point, 1 win in the SEC tourney should be enough.
Summary:
Alabama must win 3 more games this year (regular season + SEC Tournament) in order to receive an NCAA bid.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Team of the Day - Colorado - 5% Chance
Starting today, I am going to begin a new feature at March_24_7. Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes. I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid. If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.
A little over a month ago, Colorado was looking really good. They were 13-4 overall and 3-0 in the Big 12 with wins over Missouri, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State. Fast forward to today, and they are 16-11 overall and only 6-7 in the Big 12. Having lost 7 of their last 10, things are not looking good, but their window of opportunity has not completely closed yet.
Remaining schedule:
Texas
@ Iowa State
Nebraska
Estimated RPI:
61 - Finish 3-0
77 - Finish 2-1
What they need:
Obviously, things are desperate now. 2 wins and an RPI of 77 will not be enough. 3 wins and an RPI of 61 gets them close, but probably not quite in. At that point, they would probably finish 6th in the Big 12 and face a cellar dwellar in the first round of the Big 12 tournament. A win there wouldn't do much, so they probably need 2 wins in order to be able to endure one more loss. A semi-finals appearance and close lost to someone like Kansas might finally be enough.
Summary:
Colorado must win their next 5 games (3 regular season, 2 conference tournament) in order to receive an atlarge bid.
A little over a month ago, Colorado was looking really good. They were 13-4 overall and 3-0 in the Big 12 with wins over Missouri, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State. Fast forward to today, and they are 16-11 overall and only 6-7 in the Big 12. Having lost 7 of their last 10, things are not looking good, but their window of opportunity has not completely closed yet.
Remaining schedule:
Texas
@ Iowa State
Nebraska
Estimated RPI:
61 - Finish 3-0
77 - Finish 2-1
What they need:
Obviously, things are desperate now. 2 wins and an RPI of 77 will not be enough. 3 wins and an RPI of 61 gets them close, but probably not quite in. At that point, they would probably finish 6th in the Big 12 and face a cellar dwellar in the first round of the Big 12 tournament. A win there wouldn't do much, so they probably need 2 wins in order to be able to endure one more loss. A semi-finals appearance and close lost to someone like Kansas might finally be enough.
Summary:
Colorado must win their next 5 games (3 regular season, 2 conference tournament) in order to receive an atlarge bid.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Full Bracket Now Available
I have posted a full bracket through games of Friday, 2/25/11. It is located up among the tabs at the top of the blog. I will update it more and more frequently as Selection Sunday approaches. Meanwhile, look to the main blog page for my standard projections on a daily basis.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Projections Through 2/24/11
Posted 2/24/11 @ 7:33 PM
I'm going to post this a little bit early. I have yet to update after last night's games or account for games completed so far tonight. You can follow me as I make adjustments little by little. Come back as the night progresses to see my latest work. I'll even make a few comments about tonight's results as they come in.
Green = winner. Red = loser. Brown = still playing.
Note: % next to highlighted teams is from previous post. Teams will be un-highlighted once their new result has been accounted for.
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Posted 2/24/11 @ 7:58 PM
Old Dominion just pulled out a nice win @ James Madison. Any debate about whether they are still on the bubble should now be put to rest.
Florida held on to beat Georgia. The Bulldogs could have secured their bid with a win, but they will remain on the good side of the bubble... for now.
Marquette @ UConn coming down to the wire. 2 point game with 1:19 to play.
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Posted 2/24/11 @ 8:20 PM
Marquette hits a huge shot to send it to OT, then a big finish to get the win. They aren't quite a lock yet, but they are now close.
Did you hear a popping sound? That was Cleveland State's bubble. They just lost at home to Milwaukee.
George Mason with a surprisingly close game vs Northeastern, but they get the win. Just how high of seed might they be able to reach if they win out through the CAA Tourney? Very interesting!
Belmont continues to try and move into the bubble picture. They are about the earn their 26th win of the year. Unfortunately, their league doesn't provide them any help. Better win the Atlantic Sun Tourney!
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Posted 2/24/11 @ 9:50 PM
This will be my last post of the night. I'll make a final update in the morning that reflects the results of the late games.
One item of note. I fixed my formula to show the following:
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
Technically, a team like Utah State could be in 2 categories at once (One-Bid League & Tournament Winner With Atlarge Resume) I was previously counting these teams in the tournament winnnners category, but I have changed them to the one-bid leagues category instead in order to make everything fit together better. Now, when you add up my "Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues" and any conferences listed as receiving only 1 bid in my "Possible Multi-Bid Leagues" category, the total will show up in the formula above.
I think it makes a little bit more sense to show things this way.
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Posted 2/25/11 @ 8:51 AM
I changed my mind and am going to give Cleveland State a 5% chance of receiving an atlarge bid.
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Posted 2/25/11 @ 10:27 AM
Today's projections are now complete. I will be working on providing an even more thorough breakdown for each projection over the remaining weeks.
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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 4 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (11):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (13):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (8):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (18 In, 15 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Washington - 95%
Kansas State - 95%
Florida State - 90%
Marquette - 80%
Michigan State - 75%
Georgia - 65%
Illinois - 65%
Utah State - 65%*
Gonzaga - 60%*
Memphis - 55%
Alabama - 50%
Virginia Tech - 40%
UAB - 40%
Butler - 40%*
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Richmond - 30%*
Colorado State - 30%
St. Mary’s - 30%*
----- CUT LINE -----
Minnesota - 25%
Clemson - 25%
Boston College - 20%
Wichita State - 20%*
Missouri State - 15%*
Dayton - 10%*
Maryland - 10%*
Michigan - 10%*
Harvard - 5%
Princeton - 5%
Washington State - 5%*
Baylor - 5%*
Nebraska - 5%*
Colorado - 5%*
Marshall - 5%*
Cleveland State - 5%*
* = Must win out through the regular season
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Belmont (25-4, RPI 46) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Virginia Commonwealth (21-9, RPI 56) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 40
Oklahoma State (16-11, RPI 59) - Currently 4-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
I'm going to post this a little bit early. I have yet to update after last night's games or account for games completed so far tonight. You can follow me as I make adjustments little by little. Come back as the night progresses to see my latest work. I'll even make a few comments about tonight's results as they come in.
Green = winner. Red = loser. Brown = still playing.
Note: % next to highlighted teams is from previous post. Teams will be un-highlighted once their new result has been accounted for.
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Posted 2/24/11 @ 7:58 PM
Old Dominion just pulled out a nice win @ James Madison. Any debate about whether they are still on the bubble should now be put to rest.
Florida held on to beat Georgia. The Bulldogs could have secured their bid with a win, but they will remain on the good side of the bubble... for now.
Marquette @ UConn coming down to the wire. 2 point game with 1:19 to play.
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Posted 2/24/11 @ 8:20 PM
Marquette hits a huge shot to send it to OT, then a big finish to get the win. They aren't quite a lock yet, but they are now close.
Did you hear a popping sound? That was Cleveland State's bubble. They just lost at home to Milwaukee.
George Mason with a surprisingly close game vs Northeastern, but they get the win. Just how high of seed might they be able to reach if they win out through the CAA Tourney? Very interesting!
Belmont continues to try and move into the bubble picture. They are about the earn their 26th win of the year. Unfortunately, their league doesn't provide them any help. Better win the Atlantic Sun Tourney!
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Posted 2/24/11 @ 9:50 PM
This will be my last post of the night. I'll make a final update in the morning that reflects the results of the late games.
One item of note. I fixed my formula to show the following:
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
Technically, a team like Utah State could be in 2 categories at once (One-Bid League & Tournament Winner With Atlarge Resume) I was previously counting these teams in the tournament winnnners category, but I have changed them to the one-bid leagues category instead in order to make everything fit together better. Now, when you add up my "Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues" and any conferences listed as receiving only 1 bid in my "Possible Multi-Bid Leagues" category, the total will show up in the formula above.
I think it makes a little bit more sense to show things this way.
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Posted 2/25/11 @ 8:51 AM
I changed my mind and am going to give Cleveland State a 5% chance of receiving an atlarge bid.
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Posted 2/25/11 @ 10:27 AM
Today's projections are now complete. I will be working on providing an even more thorough breakdown for each projection over the remaining weeks.
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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 4 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (11):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (13):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (8):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (18 In, 15 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Washington - 95%
Kansas State - 95%
Florida State - 90%
Marquette - 80%
Michigan State - 75%
Georgia - 65%
Illinois - 65%
Utah State - 65%*
Gonzaga - 60%*
Memphis - 55%
Alabama - 50%
Virginia Tech - 40%
UAB - 40%
Butler - 40%*
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Richmond - 30%*
Colorado State - 30%
St. Mary’s - 30%*
----- CUT LINE -----
Minnesota - 25%
Clemson - 25%
Boston College - 20%
Wichita State - 20%*
Missouri State - 15%*
Dayton - 10%*
Maryland - 10%*
Michigan - 10%*
Harvard - 5%
Princeton - 5%
Washington State - 5%*
Baylor - 5%*
Nebraska - 5%*
Colorado - 5%*
Marshall - 5%*
Cleveland State - 5%*
* = Must win out through the regular season
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Belmont (25-4, RPI 46) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Virginia Commonwealth (21-9, RPI 56) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 40
Oklahoma State (16-11, RPI 59) - Currently 4-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Bubble Teams Rejoice
Bubble teams should have been celebrating last night... that is, those that didn't lose a game. It was a crazy night as 9 of my bubble teams lost games. 6 of those were to unranked opponents, and several were completely unexpected. Look for a big shakeup tonight when I release my next set of projections.
Teams dropping below the cut:
Boston College
Colorado State
Teams moving up above the cut:
Who knows? There are a whole slew of eligible teams. Stay tuned to find out.
Teams dropping below the cut:
Boston College
Colorado State
Teams moving up above the cut:
Who knows? There are a whole slew of eligible teams. Stay tuned to find out.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Projections Through 2/22/11
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (11):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, St. John’s, Syracuse, Temple, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (6):
George Mason, Old Dominion, Tennessee, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (18 In, 20 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Washington - 95%
Cincinnati - 90%
Kansas State - 80%
Michigan State - 75%
Georgia - 70%
Illinois - 65%
Utah State - 65%*
St. Mary’s - 60%
Memphis - 55%
Marquette - 55%
Boston College - 45%
Virginia Tech - 40%
Alabama - 40%
UAB - 40%
Butler - 40%*
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Colorado State - 35%
Gonzaga - 30%*
----- CUT LINE -----
Minnesota - 30%
Richmond - 30%
Clemson - 25%
Nebraska - 25%
Cleveland State - 20%*
Michigan - 20%
Baylor - 15%
Wichita State - 15%*
UTEP - 15%*
Duquesne - 15%*
Virginia Commonwealth - 15%*
Missouri State - 10%*
Dayton - 10%*
Washington State - 5%*
New Mexico - 5%*
Maryland - 5%*
Colorado - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Princeton - 5%
Marshall - 5%*
* = Must win out through the regular season
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Belmont (25-4, RPI 51) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Valparaiso (18-9, RPI 54) - 1 Terrible loss + Several bad losses + RPI will finish outside top 40
Oklahoma State (16-11, RPI 57) - Currently 4-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (11):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, St. John’s, Syracuse, Temple, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (6):
George Mason, Old Dominion, Tennessee, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (18 In, 20 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Washington - 95%
Cincinnati - 90%
Kansas State - 80%
Michigan State - 75%
Georgia - 70%
Illinois - 65%
Utah State - 65%*
St. Mary’s - 60%
Memphis - 55%
Marquette - 55%
Boston College - 45%
Virginia Tech - 40%
Alabama - 40%
UAB - 40%
Butler - 40%*
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Colorado State - 35%
Gonzaga - 30%*
----- CUT LINE -----
Minnesota - 30%
Richmond - 30%
Clemson - 25%
Nebraska - 25%
Cleveland State - 20%*
Michigan - 20%
Baylor - 15%
Wichita State - 15%*
UTEP - 15%*
Duquesne - 15%*
Virginia Commonwealth - 15%*
Missouri State - 10%*
Dayton - 10%*
Washington State - 5%*
New Mexico - 5%*
Maryland - 5%*
Colorado - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Princeton - 5%
Marshall - 5%*
* = Must win out through the regular season
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Belmont (25-4, RPI 51) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Valparaiso (18-9, RPI 54) - 1 Terrible loss + Several bad losses + RPI will finish outside top 40
Oklahoma State (16-11, RPI 57) - Currently 4-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Blind Resume Test 2/22/11
If you read much of what I write, you know that I get irritated when TV announcers do blind resume tests. They usually show just a couple stats and then act like they have shown enough information to legitimately discuss two teams.
Today, I would like to do a blind resume test of my own. Unlike what you see on TV, I will actually provide you with a decent chunk of info.
Using Pomeroy's rating system:
Team A - 64
Team B - 94
Using the RPI
Team A - 43
Team B - 55
Team A's conference is ranked slightly better than Team B's conference
Team A is tied for first in their conference
Team B is solo third in their conference
So far, you are probably leaning towards Team A. Let's go a little bit deeper. The following chart shows the wins and losses of each team. (using Pomeroy's ratings) I have removed similar results, such as both teams beating a team ranked in the 120s. This helps to show where these teams really differ. Finally, notice that I have separated wins and losses into two groups... the top and bottom halves of D1. This helps to emphasize which games have been against lousy competition.
Today, I would like to do a blind resume test of my own. Unlike what you see on TV, I will actually provide you with a decent chunk of info.
Using Pomeroy's rating system:
Team A - 64
Team B - 94
Using the RPI
Team A - 43
Team B - 55
Team A's conference is ranked slightly better than Team B's conference
Team A is tied for first in their conference
Team B is solo third in their conference
So far, you are probably leaning towards Team A. Let's go a little bit deeper. The following chart shows the wins and losses of each team. (using Pomeroy's ratings) I have removed similar results, such as both teams beating a team ranked in the 120s. This helps to show where these teams really differ. Finally, notice that I have separated wins and losses into two groups... the top and bottom halves of D1. This helps to emphasize which games have been against lousy competition.
You are probably now completely convinced that Team A has a better resume than Team B. Team A has significantly more wins of value, and is also lacking those 2 bad losses that team B has. With data this blantantly one sided, you are probably interested to know who these teams are, and more importantly, why I'm comparing them.
Team A = Southern Mississippi
Team B = Virginia Commonwealth
Southern Miss? Really? You probably haven't heard much of anything about them recently. They have been lost in the shuffle of a log jam at the top of C-USA behind teams like Memphis, UAB, and UTEP. You probably had no idea that they are tied for 1st place, or that they have a top 50 RPI, or that...
So why compare these two teams? I was looking at Joe Lunardi's newest bracketology update today. You know, the ESPN guy who gets treated like a genius by every other commentator on that network? Well, VCU was listed in his "next four out" category. Specifically, he had them as his 5th team out. Any mention of Southern Miss? Nope. This from a guy who claims to predict what the field would look like if it was selected today. Is there any question that Southern Miss should be ahead of VCU as of today?
Wondering why Lunardi would make such a big mistake? I can't say for sure since I don't know the guy, but here is a guess. VCU is coming off of a resume boosting win at Wichita State on Friday night. That game just so happened to be played on ESPN2 as part of it's Bracketbusters Weekend. Who did Southern Miss play over the weekend? East Carolina (RPI - 140). It looks like someone didn't really feel like doing his homework, and instead simply decided to fill one of his last spots with a team coming off a nice win.
Lucky for you, you're reading March_24_7, and you know the full story!
Previewing Today's Games - 2/22/11
Washington @ Seattle
Washington is nearly a lock. Seattle is a really bad team. The game is in Seattle, so the result isn't a given. Remember St. Mary's loss last week @ San Diego? A similar result here could drop Washington squarely on the bubble. Likely? No. Possible? Every other bubble team in the country sure hopes so.
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest
See Washington @ Seattle. The only difference here is that Virginia Tech is much less secure about their bubble status. A loss here would be devastating to their chances.
La Salle @ Xavier
Xavier looks to be plenty safe right now. A home loss to La Salle, followed by a couple other losses down the stretch, could cause them some concern. Once again, unlikely, but possible.
Houston @ Memphis
Memphis can't afford another bad loss following their loss @ Rice on Saturday. A loss here would make Memphis' atlarge hopes very small.
Iowa State @ Texas
Does Texas want to be a #1 seed? Last week, it looked like they were almost a lock. If they lose this game, they will have probably blown their chance in just a matter of days. Iowa State may be 1-11 in Big 12 play, but they lost by 1 @ Nebraska, in OT @ Oklahoma State, and by 5 @ Texas A&M. Texas better not sleepwalk through this game.
Illinois @ Ohio State
A win here and Ohio State remains a heavy favorite for a #1 seed. A loss and they help keep this year's race for #1 seeds wide open. As for Illinois, a win would pretty much secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
Tennessee can also lock up a ticket to the Big Dance win a win tonight. A loss wouldn't knock them onto the wrong side of the bubble, but it would push them a little closer than they would like to be.
Michigan State @ Minnesota
It seems very unlikely that both of these teams will end up in the NIT. Tonight's winner will have the upper hand in securing an atlarge, while the loser will be squarely on the bubble.
Louisville @ Rutgers
This would be a really bad loss for Louisville if they want to earn a protected seed in the tournament.
Washington is nearly a lock. Seattle is a really bad team. The game is in Seattle, so the result isn't a given. Remember St. Mary's loss last week @ San Diego? A similar result here could drop Washington squarely on the bubble. Likely? No. Possible? Every other bubble team in the country sure hopes so.
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest
See Washington @ Seattle. The only difference here is that Virginia Tech is much less secure about their bubble status. A loss here would be devastating to their chances.
La Salle @ Xavier
Xavier looks to be plenty safe right now. A home loss to La Salle, followed by a couple other losses down the stretch, could cause them some concern. Once again, unlikely, but possible.
Houston @ Memphis
Memphis can't afford another bad loss following their loss @ Rice on Saturday. A loss here would make Memphis' atlarge hopes very small.
Iowa State @ Texas
Does Texas want to be a #1 seed? Last week, it looked like they were almost a lock. If they lose this game, they will have probably blown their chance in just a matter of days. Iowa State may be 1-11 in Big 12 play, but they lost by 1 @ Nebraska, in OT @ Oklahoma State, and by 5 @ Texas A&M. Texas better not sleepwalk through this game.
Illinois @ Ohio State
A win here and Ohio State remains a heavy favorite for a #1 seed. A loss and they help keep this year's race for #1 seeds wide open. As for Illinois, a win would pretty much secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
Tennessee can also lock up a ticket to the Big Dance win a win tonight. A loss wouldn't knock them onto the wrong side of the bubble, but it would push them a little closer than they would like to be.
Michigan State @ Minnesota
It seems very unlikely that both of these teams will end up in the NIT. Tonight's winner will have the upper hand in securing an atlarge, while the loser will be squarely on the bubble.
Louisville @ Rutgers
This would be a really bad loss for Louisville if they want to earn a protected seed in the tournament.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Projections Through 2/21/11
The last of tonight's games are nearly wrapped up, so I'll go ahead and update my projections...
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
WCC (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (11):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, St. John’s, Syracuse, Temple, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (5):
George Mason, Old Dominion, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (19 In, 21 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Washington - 95%
Tennessee - 90%
Cincinnati - 90%
Kansas State - 80%
Illinois - 70%
Georgia - 70%
Utah State - 65%*
Minnesota - 60%
St. Mary’s - 60%
Memphis - 55%
Marquette - 55%
Michigan State - 50%
Boston College - 45%
Virginia Tech - 40%
Alabama - 40%
UAB - 40%
Butler - 40%*
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Colorado State - 35%
----- CUT LINE -----
Gonzaga - 30%*
Richmond - 30%
Clemson - 25%
Nebraska - 25%
Cleveland State - 20%*
Michigan - 20%
Baylor - 15%
Wichita State - 15%*
UTEP - 15%*
Duquesne - 15%*
Virginia Commonwealth - 15%*
Missouri State - 10%*
Dayton - 10%*
Washington State - 5%*
New Mexico - 5%*
Maryland - 5%*
Colorado - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Princeton - 5%
Marshall - 5%*
* = Must win out through the regular season
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Valparaiso (18-9, RPI 54) - 1 Terrible loss + Several bad losses + RPI will finish outside top 40
Belmont (25-4, RPI 55) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
WCC (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (11):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, St. John’s, Syracuse, Temple, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (5):
George Mason, Old Dominion, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (19 In, 21 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Washington - 95%
Tennessee - 90%
Cincinnati - 90%
Kansas State - 80%
Illinois - 70%
Georgia - 70%
Utah State - 65%*
Minnesota - 60%
St. Mary’s - 60%
Memphis - 55%
Marquette - 55%
Michigan State - 50%
Boston College - 45%
Virginia Tech - 40%
Alabama - 40%
UAB - 40%
Butler - 40%*
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Colorado State - 35%
----- CUT LINE -----
Gonzaga - 30%*
Richmond - 30%
Clemson - 25%
Nebraska - 25%
Cleveland State - 20%*
Michigan - 20%
Baylor - 15%
Wichita State - 15%*
UTEP - 15%*
Duquesne - 15%*
Virginia Commonwealth - 15%*
Missouri State - 10%*
Dayton - 10%*
Washington State - 5%*
New Mexico - 5%*
Maryland - 5%*
Colorado - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Princeton - 5%
Marshall - 5%*
* = Must win out through the regular season
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Valparaiso (18-9, RPI 54) - 1 Terrible loss + Several bad losses + RPI will finish outside top 40
Belmont (25-4, RPI 55) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Projections Through 2/20/11
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
WCC (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
18 One-Bid Leagues + 12 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (11):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, St. John’s, Syracuse, Temple, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (5):
George Mason, Old Dominion, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (19 In, 21 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Washington - 95%
Tennessee - 90%
Cincinnati - 90%
Kansas State - 80%
Illinois - 70%
Georgia - 70%
Utah State - 65%*
Minnesota - 60%
St. Mary’s - 60%
Memphis - 55%
Marquette - 55%
Michigan State - 50%
Boston College - 45%
Virginia Tech - 40%
Alabama - 40%
UAB - 40%
Butler - 40%*
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Colorado State - 35%
----- CUT LINE -----
Gonzaga - 30%*
UTEP - 30%
Richmond - 30%
Clemson - 25%
Nebraska - 25%
Cleveland State - 20%*
Michigan - 20%
Baylor - 15%
Wichita State - 15%*
Duquesne - 15%*
Virginia Commonwealth - 15%*
Missouri State - 10%*
Dayton - 10%*
Washington State - 5%*
Oklahoma State - 5%*
New Mexico - 5%*
Maryland - 5%*
Colorado - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Princeton - 5%
Marshall - 5%*
* = Must win out through the regular season
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Belmont (24-4, RPI 52) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Valparaiso (17-8, RPI 55) - 1 Terrible loss + Several bad losses + RPI will finish outside top 40
By Conference:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge bid
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
WCC (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
18 One-Bid Leagues + 12 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (11):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, St. John’s, Syracuse, Temple, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (5):
George Mason, Old Dominion, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (19 In, 21 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Washington - 95%
Tennessee - 90%
Cincinnati - 90%
Kansas State - 80%
Illinois - 70%
Georgia - 70%
Utah State - 65%*
Minnesota - 60%
St. Mary’s - 60%
Memphis - 55%
Marquette - 55%
Michigan State - 50%
Boston College - 45%
Virginia Tech - 40%
Alabama - 40%
UAB - 40%
Butler - 40%*
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Colorado State - 35%
----- CUT LINE -----
Gonzaga - 30%*
UTEP - 30%
Richmond - 30%
Clemson - 25%
Nebraska - 25%
Cleveland State - 20%*
Michigan - 20%
Baylor - 15%
Wichita State - 15%*
Duquesne - 15%*
Virginia Commonwealth - 15%*
Missouri State - 10%*
Dayton - 10%*
Washington State - 5%*
Oklahoma State - 5%*
New Mexico - 5%*
Maryland - 5%*
Colorado - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Princeton - 5%
Marshall - 5%*
* = Must win out through the regular season
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Belmont (24-4, RPI 52) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Valparaiso (17-8, RPI 55) - 1 Terrible loss + Several bad losses + RPI will finish outside top 40
By Conference:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge bid
Friday, February 18, 2011
Projections Through 2/17/11
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Horizon (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
MVC (1 in as of today, 1 bubbles yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
WCC (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
18 One-Bid Leagues + 13 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
BYU, Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Texas
Fighting For Protected Seeds (20):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, Purdue, St. John’s, Syracuse, Temple, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier
Near Locks (7):
George Mason, Illinois, Memphis, Old Dominion, Tennessee, UNLV, Washington
Bubble (15 In, 17 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
St. Mary’s - 80%
Kansas State - 80%
Cincinnati - 75%
Utah State - 60%
Minnesota - 60%
Colorado State - 55%
Marquette - 50%
Baylor - 50%
Boston College - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Alabama - 40%
Georgia - 40%
Wichita State - 35%
UAB - 30%
Michigan State - 30%
----- CUT LINE -----
Cleveland State - 30%
Southern Mississippi - 30%
Duquesne - 30%
Butler - 25%
Gonzaga - 25%
UTEP - 25%
Richmond - 25%
Missouri State - 25%
Clemson - 20%
Washington State - 15%
New Mexico - 15%
Michigan - 15%
Nebraska - 15%
Oklahoma State - 10%
Colorado - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Princeton - 5%
Must win out through the regular season:
Maryland - 5%
Virginia Commonwealth - 5%
Penn State - 5%
Dayton - 5%
Mississippi - 5%
Marshall - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Belmont (24-4, RPI 52) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Valparaiso (17-8, RPI 55) - 1 Terrible loss + Several bad losses + RPI will finish outside top 40
By Conference:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 7)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge bid
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Horizon (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
MVC (1 in as of today, 1 bubbles yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
WCC (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
18 One-Bid Leagues + 13 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
BYU, Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Texas
Fighting For Protected Seeds (20):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, Purdue, St. John’s, Syracuse, Temple, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier
Near Locks (7):
George Mason, Illinois, Memphis, Old Dominion, Tennessee, UNLV, Washington
Bubble (15 In, 17 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
St. Mary’s - 80%
Kansas State - 80%
Cincinnati - 75%
Utah State - 60%
Minnesota - 60%
Colorado State - 55%
Marquette - 50%
Baylor - 50%
Boston College - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Alabama - 40%
Georgia - 40%
Wichita State - 35%
UAB - 30%
Michigan State - 30%
----- CUT LINE -----
Cleveland State - 30%
Southern Mississippi - 30%
Duquesne - 30%
Butler - 25%
Gonzaga - 25%
UTEP - 25%
Richmond - 25%
Missouri State - 25%
Clemson - 20%
Washington State - 15%
New Mexico - 15%
Michigan - 15%
Nebraska - 15%
Oklahoma State - 10%
Colorado - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Princeton - 5%
Must win out through the regular season:
Maryland - 5%
Virginia Commonwealth - 5%
Penn State - 5%
Dayton - 5%
Mississippi - 5%
Marshall - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Belmont (24-4, RPI 52) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Valparaiso (17-8, RPI 55) - 1 Terrible loss + Several bad losses + RPI will finish outside top 40
By Conference:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 7)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge bid
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Projections Through 2/16/11
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Horizon (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
WAC (1 in as of today)
WCC (1 in as of today & 1 bubble yet to burst)
19 One-Bid Leagues + 12 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 49 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
BYU, Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Texas
Fighting For Protected Seeds (19):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, Purdue, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier
Near Locks (8):
George Mason, Illinois, Memphis, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, Washington
Bubble (14 In, 18 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Minnesota - 85%
St. Mary’s - 80%
Kansas State - 80%
Cincinnati - 75%
Utah State - 60%
Colorado State - 55%
Marquette - 50%
Baylor - 50%
Boston College - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Georgia - 40%
Alabama - 40%
Richmond - 35%
Clemson - 35%
----- CUT LINE -----
UAB - 30%
Michigan State - 30%
Wichita State - 30%
Cleveland State - 30%
Southern Mississippi - 30%
Duquesne - 30%
Butler - 25%
UTEP - 25%
Washington State - 20%
Missouri State - 20%
New Mexico - 15%
Gonzaga - 15%
Michigan - 15%
Nebraska - 15%
Oklahoma State - 10%
Maryland - 5%
Colorado - 5%
Virginia Commonwealth - 5%
Teams of interest whose bubble has POPPED:
Belmont (23-4, RPI 56) - Winless vs. the top 100 + no remaining chances for a quality win = Auto Bid or Bust!
By Conference:
Big East: 11 (Min: 9, Max: 11)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 7)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 6 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
CUSA: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge bid
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Horizon (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
WAC (1 in as of today)
WCC (1 in as of today & 1 bubble yet to burst)
19 One-Bid Leagues + 12 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 49 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
BYU, Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Texas
Fighting For Protected Seeds (19):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, Purdue, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier
Near Locks (8):
George Mason, Illinois, Memphis, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, Washington
Bubble (14 In, 18 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Minnesota - 85%
St. Mary’s - 80%
Kansas State - 80%
Cincinnati - 75%
Utah State - 60%
Colorado State - 55%
Marquette - 50%
Baylor - 50%
Boston College - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Georgia - 40%
Alabama - 40%
Richmond - 35%
Clemson - 35%
----- CUT LINE -----
UAB - 30%
Michigan State - 30%
Wichita State - 30%
Cleveland State - 30%
Southern Mississippi - 30%
Duquesne - 30%
Butler - 25%
UTEP - 25%
Washington State - 20%
Missouri State - 20%
New Mexico - 15%
Gonzaga - 15%
Michigan - 15%
Nebraska - 15%
Oklahoma State - 10%
Maryland - 5%
Colorado - 5%
Virginia Commonwealth - 5%
Teams of interest whose bubble has POPPED:
Belmont (23-4, RPI 56) - Winless vs. the top 100 + no remaining chances for a quality win = Auto Bid or Bust!
By Conference:
Big East: 11 (Min: 9, Max: 11)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 7)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 6 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
CUSA: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge bid
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Projections Through 2/15/11
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Horizon (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
WAC (1 in as of today)
WCC (1 in as of today & 1 bubble yet to burst)
19 One-Bid Leagues + 12 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 49 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (10):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (17):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, Purdue, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, West Virginia, Xavier
Near Locks (9):
George Mason, Illinois, Memphis, Old Dominion, St.Mary’s, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, Washington
Bubble (13 In, 18 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Minnesota - 85%
Kansas State - 80%
Utah State - 65%
Georgia - 60%
Cincinnati - 60%
Marquette - 50%
Baylor - 50%
Boston College - 50%
Colorado State - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
UTEP - 40%
Alabama - 40%
UAB - 40%
----- CUT LINE -----
Clemson - 35%
Richmond - 35%
Michigan State - 30%
Wichita State - 25%
Butler - 25%
Duquesne - 25%
Cleveland State - 25%
New Mexico - 20%
Washington State - 20%
Michigan - 20%
Missouri State - 20%
Oklahoma State - 15%
Gonzaga - 15%
Southern Mississippi - 15%
Nebraska - 10%
Maryland - 5%
Colorado - 5%
Virginia Commonwealth - 5%
Teams of interest whose bubble has POPPED:
Belmont (23-4, RPI 61) - Winless vs. the top 100 + no remaining chances for a quality win = Auto Bid or Bust!
By Conference:
Big East: 11 (Min: 9, Max: 11)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 7)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge bid
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Horizon (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
WAC (1 in as of today)
WCC (1 in as of today & 1 bubble yet to burst)
19 One-Bid Leagues + 12 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 49 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (10):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (17):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, Purdue, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, West Virginia, Xavier
Near Locks (9):
George Mason, Illinois, Memphis, Old Dominion, St.Mary’s, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, Washington
Bubble (13 In, 18 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Minnesota - 85%
Kansas State - 80%
Utah State - 65%
Georgia - 60%
Cincinnati - 60%
Marquette - 50%
Baylor - 50%
Boston College - 50%
Colorado State - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
UTEP - 40%
Alabama - 40%
UAB - 40%
----- CUT LINE -----
Clemson - 35%
Richmond - 35%
Michigan State - 30%
Wichita State - 25%
Butler - 25%
Duquesne - 25%
Cleveland State - 25%
New Mexico - 20%
Washington State - 20%
Michigan - 20%
Missouri State - 20%
Oklahoma State - 15%
Gonzaga - 15%
Southern Mississippi - 15%
Nebraska - 10%
Maryland - 5%
Colorado - 5%
Virginia Commonwealth - 5%
Teams of interest whose bubble has POPPED:
Belmont (23-4, RPI 61) - Winless vs. the top 100 + no remaining chances for a quality win = Auto Bid or Bust!
By Conference:
Big East: 11 (Min: 9, Max: 11)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 7)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge bid
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Projections Through 2/14/11
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Horizon (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
WAC (1 in as of today)
WCC (1 in as of today & 1 bubble yet to burst)
19 One-Bid Leagues + 12 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 49 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (10):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (17):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, Purdue, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, West Virginia, Xavier
Probable (8):
George Mason, Illinois, Memphis, St. Mary’s, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, Washington
Possible (14 In, 18 Out):
Minnesota - 85%
Kansas State - 80%
Old Dominion - 80%
Utah State - 70%
Marquette - 70%
Georgia - 60%
Cincinnati - 60%
Baylor - 50%
Boston College - 50%
Colorado State - 50%
UTEP - 40%
Alabama - 40%
UAB - 40%
Clemson - 35%
----- CUT LINE -----
Virginia Tech - 35%
Richmond - 35%
Michigan State - 35%
Duquesne - 25%
Cleveland State - 25%
Wichita State - 20%
New Mexico - 20%
Washington State - 20%
Butler - 20%
Michigan - 20%
Virginia Commonwealth - 15%
Missouri State - 15%
Oklahoma State - 15%
Maryland - 15%
Gonzaga - 15%
Southern Mississippi - 15%
Nebraska - 10%
Colorado - 5%
The media might talk about the following teams, but their bubble has POPPED:
Belmont (22-4, RPI 61) - Winless vs. the top 100 + no remaining chances for a quality win = Auto Bid or Bust!
By Conference:
Big East: 11 (Min: 9, Max: 11)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 7)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge bid
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Horizon (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
WAC (1 in as of today)
WCC (1 in as of today & 1 bubble yet to burst)
19 One-Bid Leagues + 12 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 49 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (10):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (17):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, Purdue, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, West Virginia, Xavier
Probable (8):
George Mason, Illinois, Memphis, St. Mary’s, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, Washington
Possible (14 In, 18 Out):
Minnesota - 85%
Kansas State - 80%
Old Dominion - 80%
Utah State - 70%
Marquette - 70%
Georgia - 60%
Cincinnati - 60%
Baylor - 50%
Boston College - 50%
Colorado State - 50%
UTEP - 40%
Alabama - 40%
UAB - 40%
Clemson - 35%
----- CUT LINE -----
Virginia Tech - 35%
Richmond - 35%
Michigan State - 35%
Duquesne - 25%
Cleveland State - 25%
Wichita State - 20%
New Mexico - 20%
Washington State - 20%
Butler - 20%
Michigan - 20%
Virginia Commonwealth - 15%
Missouri State - 15%
Oklahoma State - 15%
Maryland - 15%
Gonzaga - 15%
Southern Mississippi - 15%
Nebraska - 10%
Colorado - 5%
The media might talk about the following teams, but their bubble has POPPED:
Belmont (22-4, RPI 61) - Winless vs. the top 100 + no remaining chances for a quality win = Auto Bid or Bust!
By Conference:
Big East: 11 (Min: 9, Max: 11)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 7)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge bid
Friday, February 11, 2011
Projections Through 2/10/11
I've been doing these projections on message boards for years. Slowly, I've refined my template... always trying to cram more information into a easier to read format. Anyway, here goes...
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Horizon (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
CUSA (1 in as of today & 3 bubbles yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today)
WCC (1 in as of today & 1 bubble yet to burst)
19 One-Bid Leagues + 12 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 49 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (10):
BYU, Connecticut, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Texas
Fighting For Protected Seeds (16):
Arizona, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, West Virginia, Wisconsin
Probable (9):
George Mason, Illinois, Memphis, St. Mary’s, St. John’s, Temple, UNLV, Washington, Xavier
Possible (14 In, 17 Out):
Minnesota
Cincinnati
Kansas State
Georgia
Marquette
Utah State
Clemson
Old Dominion
Baylor
Richmond
Virginia Tech
Duquesne
UTEP
Virginia Commonwealth
----- CUT LINE -----
Boston College
Alabama
Maryland
Cleveland State
Colorado State
Oklahoma State
New Mexico
UAB
Southern Mississippi
Michigan State
Wichita State
Missouri State
Butler
Gonzaga
Dayton
Michigan
Washington State
The media might talk about the following teams, but their bubble has POPPED:
Belmont (22-4, RPI 61) - Winless vs. the top 100 + no remaining chances for a quality win = Auto Bid or Bust!
By Conference:
Big East: 11 (Min: 9, Max: 11)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 7)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 7)
Big 10: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
A-10: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Colonial: 3 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
CUSA: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Horizon (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
CUSA (1 in as of today & 3 bubbles yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today)
WCC (1 in as of today & 1 bubble yet to burst)
19 One-Bid Leagues + 12 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 49 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (10):
BYU, Connecticut, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Texas
Fighting For Protected Seeds (16):
Arizona, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, West Virginia, Wisconsin
Probable (9):
George Mason, Illinois, Memphis, St. Mary’s, St. John’s, Temple, UNLV, Washington, Xavier
Possible (14 In, 17 Out):
Minnesota
Cincinnati
Kansas State
Georgia
Marquette
Utah State
Clemson
Old Dominion
Baylor
Richmond
Virginia Tech
Duquesne
UTEP
Virginia Commonwealth
----- CUT LINE -----
Boston College
Alabama
Maryland
Cleveland State
Colorado State
Oklahoma State
New Mexico
UAB
Southern Mississippi
Michigan State
Wichita State
Missouri State
Butler
Gonzaga
Dayton
Michigan
Washington State
The media might talk about the following teams, but their bubble has POPPED:
Belmont (22-4, RPI 61) - Winless vs. the top 100 + no remaining chances for a quality win = Auto Bid or Bust!
By Conference:
Big East: 11 (Min: 9, Max: 11)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 7)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 7)
Big 10: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
A-10: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Colonial: 3 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
CUSA: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 3)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge
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