Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (11):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, St. John’s, Syracuse, Temple, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (6):
George Mason, Old Dominion, Tennessee, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (18 In, 20 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Washington - 95%
Cincinnati - 90%
Kansas State - 80%
Michigan State - 75%
Georgia - 70%
Illinois - 65%
Utah State - 65%*
St. Mary’s - 60%
Memphis - 55%
Marquette - 55%
Boston College - 45%
Virginia Tech - 40%
Alabama - 40%
UAB - 40%
Butler - 40%*
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Colorado State - 35%
Gonzaga - 30%*
----- CUT LINE -----
Minnesota - 30%
Richmond - 30%
Clemson - 25%
Nebraska - 25%
Cleveland State - 20%*
Michigan - 20%
Baylor - 15%
Wichita State - 15%*
UTEP - 15%*
Duquesne - 15%*
Virginia Commonwealth - 15%*
Missouri State - 10%*
Dayton - 10%*
Washington State - 5%*
New Mexico - 5%*
Maryland - 5%*
Colorado - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Princeton - 5%
Marshall - 5%*
* = Must win out through the regular season
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Belmont (25-4, RPI 51) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Valparaiso (18-9, RPI 54) - 1 Terrible loss + Several bad losses + RPI will finish outside top 40
Oklahoma State (16-11, RPI 57) - Currently 4-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
I think Minnesota should be farther down the list. They have lost 6 of their last 7.
ReplyDeleteMinnesota has been competitive in virtually all of those losses. With their final 3 games coming against NIT level Big 10 teams, and 2 at home, I could see them winning all 3 games, finishing 9-9 in conference, and squeaking into the tournament. Probably about a 10% chance there. More likely, they win 2 of 3, leaving some work to be done in the Big 10 tourney, but still within range. I'll say 50% chance they finish 2-1, but only 20% that they follow that up with enough additional wins in the Big 10 tourney. If they finish 1-2, they are out. Throw all that together and I come up with about a 30% chance of making it.
ReplyDeleteThat analysis helps me understand. I agree that they probably will win their final 3 games and can earn a ticket in the big 10 tourney.
ReplyDelete