Projections Through 2/15/11

Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Horizon (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
WAC (1 in as of today)
WCC (1 in as of today & 1 bubble yet to burst)

19 One-Bid Leagues + 12 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 49 teams will get in:

Fighting For #1 Seeds (10):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin

Fighting For Protected Seeds (17):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, Purdue, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, West Virginia, Xavier

Near Locks (9):
George Mason, Illinois, Memphis, Old Dominion, St.Mary’s, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, Washington

Bubble (13 In, 18 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Minnesota - 85%
Kansas State - 80%
Utah State - 65%
Georgia - 60%
Cincinnati - 60%
Marquette - 50%
Baylor - 50%
Boston College - 50%
Colorado State - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
UTEP - 40%
Alabama - 40%
UAB - 40%

----- CUT LINE -----

Clemson - 35%
Richmond - 35%
Michigan State - 30%
Wichita State - 25%
Butler - 25%
Duquesne - 25%
Cleveland State - 25%
New Mexico - 20%
Washington State - 20%
Michigan - 20%
Missouri State - 20%
Oklahoma State - 15%
Gonzaga - 15%
Southern Mississippi - 15%
Nebraska - 10%
Maryland - 5%
Colorado - 5%
Virginia Commonwealth - 5%

Teams of interest whose bubble has POPPED:
Belmont (23-4, RPI 61) - Winless vs. the top 100 + no remaining chances for a quality win = Auto Bid or Bust!

By Conference:
Big East:     11  (Min: 9, Max: 11)
Big 12:        6  (Min: 5, Max: 7)
SEC:           6  (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10:        5  (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC:           5  (Min: 4, Max: 6)
Mountain West: 4  (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10:        3  (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10:          2  (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial:      2  (Min: 1, Max: 3)
CUSA:          3  (Min: 1, Max: 3)
Horizon:       1  (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC:           1  (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC:           1  (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC:           1  (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge bid