Posted 2/24/11 @ 7:33 PM
I'm going to post this a little bit early. I have yet to update after last night's games or account for games completed so far tonight. You can follow me as I make adjustments little by little. Come back as the night progresses to see my latest work. I'll even make a few comments about tonight's results as they come in.
Green = winner. Red = loser. Brown = still playing.
Note: % next to highlighted teams is from previous post. Teams will be un-highlighted once their new result has been accounted for.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Posted 2/24/11 @ 7:58 PM
Old Dominion just pulled out a nice win @ James Madison. Any debate about whether they are still on the bubble should now be put to rest.
Florida held on to beat Georgia. The Bulldogs could have secured their bid with a win, but they will remain on the good side of the bubble... for now.
Marquette @ UConn coming down to the wire. 2 point game with 1:19 to play.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Posted 2/24/11 @ 8:20 PM
Marquette hits a huge shot to send it to OT, then a big finish to get the win. They aren't quite a lock yet, but they are now close.
Did you hear a popping sound? That was Cleveland State's bubble. They just lost at home to Milwaukee.
George Mason with a surprisingly close game vs Northeastern, but they get the win. Just how high of seed might they be able to reach if they win out through the CAA Tourney? Very interesting!
Belmont continues to try and move into the bubble picture. They are about the earn their 26th win of the year. Unfortunately, their league doesn't provide them any help. Better win the Atlantic Sun Tourney!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Posted 2/24/11 @ 9:50 PM
This will be my last post of the night. I'll make a final update in the morning that reflects the results of the late games.
One item of note. I fixed my formula to show the following:
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
Technically, a team like Utah State could be in 2 categories at once (One-Bid League & Tournament Winner With Atlarge Resume) I was previously counting these teams in the tournament winnnners category, but I have changed them to the one-bid leagues category instead in order to make everything fit together better. Now, when you add up my "Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues" and any conferences listed as receiving only 1 bid in my "Possible Multi-Bid Leagues" category, the total will show up in the formula above.
I think it makes a little bit more sense to show things this way.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Posted 2/25/11 @ 8:51 AM
I changed my mind and am going to give Cleveland State a 5% chance of receiving an atlarge bid.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Posted 2/25/11 @ 10:27 AM
Today's projections are now complete. I will be working on providing an even more thorough breakdown for each projection over the remaining weeks.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 4 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
CUSA: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
Fighting For #1 Seeds (11):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (13):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (8):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (18 In, 15 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Washington - 95%
Kansas State - 95%
Florida State - 90%
Marquette - 80%
Michigan State - 75%
Georgia - 65%
Illinois - 65%
Utah State - 65%*
Gonzaga - 60%*
Memphis - 55%
Alabama - 50%
Virginia Tech - 40%
UAB - 40%
Butler - 40%*
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Richmond - 30%*
Colorado State - 30%
St. Mary’s - 30%*
----- CUT LINE -----
Minnesota - 25%
Clemson - 25%
Boston College - 20%
Wichita State - 20%*
Missouri State - 15%*
Dayton - 10%*
Maryland - 10%*
Michigan - 10%*
Harvard - 5%
Princeton - 5%
Washington State - 5%*
Baylor - 5%*
Nebraska - 5%*
Colorado - 5%*
Marshall - 5%*
Cleveland State - 5%*
* = Must win out through the regular season
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Belmont (25-4, RPI 46) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Virginia Commonwealth (21-9, RPI 56) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 40
Oklahoma State (16-11, RPI 59) - Currently 4-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Hey JH4P,
ReplyDeleteJust curious why you think VCU's bubble has popped.Same thing goes for Marshall. They both have numbers that equal or better than almost all of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 bubble teams and 'Bama.
Thoughts?
You will find Marshall at the bottom of my list with a 5% chance of receiving an atlarge. Their bubble hasn't popped quite yet, but it is close. They need to win their 3 remaining games in order to be in the top 50 of the RPI heading into the C-USA tourney. Even then, a loss in the first round of the C-USA tourney and they would fall back out of the top 50. What chance to you think there is that they win their next 4 in a row? I say... about 5%
ReplyDeleteAs for VCU, they need some wins to make up for a series of losses recently. They technically could still earn an atlarge bid if they won out until the CAA tourney championship game. Unfortunately, even that wouldn’t guarantee a bid. All things considered, you could probably give them about a 2% chance if you really wanted to throw a number out there. Realistically, I think they are done. They have only won 3 of their last 7 games. That’s not very encouraging considering the task ahead of them.
Finally, you mentioned Alabama specifically. I'll admit that they are an interesting case. I think that dominating the SEC West and playing well down the stretch is what will get them in. You are right that their overall profile is only mediocre as far as bubble teams go.
Well, now I think we can put a fork into VCU.
ReplyDeleteHad a question about UConn. If they find a way to lose out, @ Cincy, @ WVU, v. ND and then lose their first game in the Big East tourney, are they in at 20-11, 8-10 and a 6 game losing streak?
Steve,
ReplyDeleteHad UConn finished with a 6 game losing streak, I think they would have probably still gotten in. Their RPI would have dropped to about 40, which is still reasonable. Given that the 6 games were all to good teams, I think they would have squeeked in.
That said, they won today, so they are now an absolute lock and simply playing for seeding... probably a good seed at that.