Saturday, February 26, 2011

Team of the Day - Colorado - 5% Chance

Starting today, I am going to begin a new feature at March_24_7.  Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes.  I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid.  If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.

A little over a month ago, Colorado was looking really good.  They were 13-4 overall and 3-0 in the Big 12 with wins over Missouri, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State.  Fast forward to today, and they are 16-11 overall and only 6-7 in the Big 12.  Having lost 7 of their last 10, things are not looking good, but their window of opportunity has not completely closed yet.

Remaining schedule:
Texas
@ Iowa State
Nebraska

Estimated RPI:
61 - Finish 3-0
77 - Finish 2-1

What they need:
Obviously, things are desperate now.  2 wins and an RPI of 77 will not be enough.  3 wins and an RPI of 61 gets them close, but probably not quite in.  At that point, they would probably finish 6th in the Big 12 and face a cellar dwellar in the first round of the Big 12 tournament.  A win there wouldn't do much, so they probably need 2 wins in order to be able to endure one more loss.  A semi-finals appearance and close lost to someone like Kansas might finally be enough.

Summary:
Colorado must win their next 5 games (3 regular season, 2 conference tournament) in order to receive an atlarge bid.

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