Team of the Day - Gonzaga - 80% Chance

Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes.  I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid.  If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.

Gonzaga has become a brand name over the past decade.  They have risen from a relative unknown mid-major out West into an NCAA Tournament staple.  One way to see just how much national attention they now draw is to look at how they have been discussed this year.  Throughout December and January, numerous articles came out wondering "Could Gonzaga miss the tourney this year?"  The fact that that question was even being asked shows just how far they have come.

Currently, Gonzaga looks like they may have done enough to extend their streak of NCAA bids.  With a record of 20-9 overall and 11-3 in the WCC, they may not be as dominant as they have been in recent years, but they are a home win against lowly Cal State Bakersfield away from atleast a share of yet another conference title.  Their RPI is only 64, but with 7 top 100 wins, and 4 of those coming away from home, they have a lot of ammo to help overcome a mediocre RPI.

Remaining schedule:
Cal State Bakersfield

Estimated RPI:
67 - Finish 1-0
82 - Finish 0-1

What they need:
Gonzaga finds itself blessed to play in a conference where the top 2 seeds get byes all the way to the semi-finals of the conference tournament.  That means just a pair of wins and Gonzaga doesn't have to sweat it out on Selection Sunday.  As it stands right now, their most likely opponent in the semis will be RPI #118 San Francisco.  Obviously, a win there won't do much for Gonzaga's RPI, but a loss to St. Mary's in the final wouldn't hurt their RPI much either.  I think it is safe to say that Gonzaga's RPI will be in the 60's should they make it to the finals and then lose to St. Mary's on March 7th.  A loss in the semis and Gonzaga can start printing NIT tickets for the first time in a long while.  Thankfully for them, I think they have a good chance of avoiding any losses between now and the championship game.  I would say the odds are about 90% in their favor.

So what are Gonzaga's odds of receiving a bid if they lose to St. Mary's?  Their RPI isn't much help, but in the first year of the expanded tournament field of 68, it doesn't look quite as bad as it usually would.  Wins over Marquette, Baylor, Xavier, and Oklahoma State in the non-conference are helpful, and having an 8 game winning streak prior to losing a game makes for a strong finish.  Overall, the Committee could go either way withe a hard time with this resume, and I think it could go either way.  I'll say 50/50.  That puts their overall shot at an atlarge worthy resume at 80%.  Unfortunately, they may need to be WCC tournament champions in order to develop a resume that they would then no longer need.

Summary:
Gonzaga will need to win the WCC tourney or they will face a 50/50 chance at receiving an atlarge bid.