As I mentioned yesterday, I am beginning a new feature at March_24_7. Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes. I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid. If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.
Alabama is an odd case. It seems almost impossible to reconcile all the components of their resume. You look at one stat, and say they are in for sure. Then, you look at another stat and wonder why they are even in the conversation at all. Regardless of what any of us think, this one is going to come down to the Committee. How will they interpret Alabama's odd resume? Only time will tell, but in the meantime, let's try to make an educated guess.
Alabama currently sits at 19-9 overall, 11-3 in the SEC. They are dominating the SEC West with a 4 game lead and are tied for first place overall with Florida. Normally, your instincts would tell you that this team is a shoe-in for an NCAA bid. However, I have yet to mention Alabama's surprising RPI. Believe it or not, their RPI currently sits at 89, well outside the normal range for atlarge condenders.
So how can their record look so good, yet their RPI be so bad? Well, for starters, all of the power in the SEC this year is focused in the SEC East. It is likely that 5 of those 6 teams will be dancing this year. Over in the West, Alabama is the only team even sniffing a bid. Let's just say that Florida's 11-3 SEC record is much more impressive then Alabama's 11-3 mark.
Finally, Alabama had a really poor non-conference season. Their non-conf RPI currently sits in the 200s. That is not non-conf SOS. That is actually RPI. They went 8-6 without a single quality win before SEC play started. Inside SEC play, they have mostly taken care of business in games they should win, along with wins over Kentucky and Tennessee.
Remaining schedule:
@ Florida
Georgia
Estimated RPI:
68 - Finish 2-0
82 - Finish 1-1
What they need:
If Alabama receives an atlarge, it will be in spite of their RPI, not due to it. Should they finish 1-1 in the regular season, they will need a championship game appearance in the SEC tourney to have any chance at receiving a bid. Even then, I would only give them a 50/50 shot since their final RPI would likely be in the high 50s at best. Finishing 2-0 in the regular season may be necessary. At that point, 1 win in the SEC tourney should be enough.
Summary:
Alabama must win 3 more games this year (regular season + SEC Tournament) in order to receive an NCAA bid.
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