Projections Through 2/17/11

Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Horizon (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
MVC (1 in as of today, 1 bubbles yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
WCC (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)

18 One-Bid Leagues + 13 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 50 teams will get in:

Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
BYU, Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Texas

Fighting For Protected Seeds (20):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, Purdue, St. John’s, Syracuse, Temple, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier

Near Locks (7):
George Mason, Illinois, Memphis, Old Dominion, Tennessee, UNLV, Washington

Bubble (15 In, 17 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
St. Mary’s - 80%
Kansas State - 80%
Cincinnati - 75%
Utah State - 60%
Minnesota - 60%
Colorado State - 55%
Marquette - 50%
Baylor - 50%
Boston College - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Alabama - 40%
Georgia - 40%
Wichita State - 35%
UAB - 30%
Michigan State - 30%

----- CUT LINE -----

Cleveland State - 30%
Southern Mississippi - 30%
Duquesne - 30%
Butler - 25%
Gonzaga - 25%
UTEP - 25%
Richmond - 25%
Missouri State - 25%
Clemson - 20%
Washington State - 15%
New Mexico - 15%
Michigan - 15%
Nebraska - 15%
Oklahoma State - 10%
Colorado - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Princeton - 5%

Must win out through the regular season:
Maryland - 5%
Virginia Commonwealth - 5%
Penn State - 5%
Dayton - 5%
Mississippi - 5%
Marshall - 5%

Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Belmont (24-4, RPI 52) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Valparaiso (17-8, RPI 55) - 1 Terrible loss + Several bad losses + RPI will finish outside top 40

By Conference:
Big East:     11  (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 12:        6  (Min: 5, Max: 7)
SEC:           6  (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10:        6  (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC:           5  (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4  (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10:        3  (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10:          2  (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial:      2  (Min: 2, Max: 3)
CUSA:          2  (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Horizon:       1  (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC:           1  (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC:           1  (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC:           1  (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge bid