Blind Resume Test 2/22/11

If you read much of what I write, you know that I get irritated when TV announcers do blind resume tests.  They usually show just a couple stats and then act like they have shown enough information to legitimately discuss two teams.

Today, I would like to do a blind resume test of my own.  Unlike what you see on TV, I will actually provide you with a decent chunk of info.

Using Pomeroy's rating system:
Team A - 64
Team B - 94

Using the RPI
Team A - 43
Team B - 55

Team A's conference is ranked slightly better than Team B's conference
Team A is tied for first in their conference
Team B is solo third in their conference

So far, you are probably leaning towards Team A.  Let's go a little bit deeper.  The following chart shows the wins and losses of each team. (using Pomeroy's ratings)  I have removed similar results, such as both teams beating a team ranked in the 120s.  This helps to show where these teams really differ.  Finally, notice that I have separated wins and losses into two groups... the top and bottom halves of D1.  This helps to emphasize which games have been against lousy competition.



You are probably now completely convinced that Team A has a better resume than Team B.  Team A has significantly more wins of value, and is also lacking those 2 bad losses that team B has.  With data this blantantly one sided, you are probably interested to know who these teams are, and more importantly, why I'm comparing them.

Team A = Southern Mississippi

Team B = Virginia Commonwealth

Southern Miss?  Really?  You probably haven't heard much of anything about them recently.  They have been lost in the shuffle of a log jam at the top of C-USA behind teams like Memphis, UAB, and UTEP.  You probably had no idea that they are tied for 1st place, or that they have a top 50 RPI, or that...

So why compare these two teams?  I was looking at Joe Lunardi's newest bracketology update today.  You know, the ESPN guy who gets treated like a genius by every other commentator on that network?  Well, VCU was listed in his "next four out" category.  Specifically, he had them as his 5th team out.  Any mention of Southern Miss?  Nope.  This from a guy who claims to predict what the field would look like if it was selected today.  Is there any question that Southern Miss should be ahead of VCU as of today?

Wondering why Lunardi would make such a big mistake?  I can't say for sure since I don't know the guy, but here is a guess.  VCU is coming off of a resume boosting win at Wichita State on Friday night.  That game just so happened to be played on ESPN2 as part of it's Bracketbusters Weekend.  Who did Southern Miss play over the weekend?  East Carolina (RPI - 140).  It looks like someone didn't really feel like doing his homework, and instead simply decided to fill one of his last spots with a team coming off a nice win.

Lucky for you, you're reading March_24_7, and you know the full story!