Projections Through 2/20/11

Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
WCC (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)

18 One-Bid Leagues + 12 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 50 teams will get in:

Fighting For #1 Seeds (11):
BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, San Diego State, Texas, Wisconsin

Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina, St. John’s, Syracuse, Temple, Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova

Other Locks (5):
George Mason, Old Dominion, UNLV, West Virginia, Xavier

Bubble (19 In, 21 Out):
Chance of receiving atlarge bid listed as %
Washington - 95%
Tennessee - 90%
Cincinnati - 90%
Kansas State - 80%
Illinois - 70%
Georgia - 70%
Utah State - 65%*
Minnesota - 60%
St. Mary’s - 60%
Memphis - 55%
Marquette - 55%
Michigan State - 50%
Boston College - 45%
Virginia Tech - 40%
Alabama - 40%
UAB - 40%
Butler - 40%*
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Colorado State - 35%

----- CUT LINE -----

Gonzaga - 30%*
UTEP - 30%
Richmond - 30%
Clemson - 25%
Nebraska - 25%
Cleveland State - 20%*
Michigan - 20%
Baylor - 15%
Wichita State - 15%*
Duquesne - 15%*
Virginia Commonwealth - 15%*
Missouri State - 10%*
Dayton - 10%*
Washington State - 5%*
Oklahoma State - 5%*
New Mexico - 5%*
Maryland - 5%*
Colorado - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Princeton - 5%
Marshall - 5%*
* = Must win out through the regular season

Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Belmont (24-4, RPI 52) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Valparaiso (17-8, RPI 55) - 1 Terrible loss + Several bad losses + RPI will finish outside top 40

By Conference:
Big East:     11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
SEC:           6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 10:        6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12:        5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC:           5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10:        3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
CUSA:          3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10:          2 (Min: 2, Max: 4)
Colonial:      2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Horizon:       1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC:           1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC:           1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WCC:           1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
17 Leagues have no chance at an atlarge bid