Here are 3 teams that I consider to be on the bubble at the moment. Take a look and decide for yourself who is the most deserving team in this group.
Team A - Memphis
Team B - Nebraska
Team C - St. Mary's
Surprised? Everyone says that St. Mary's is probably in and Memphis and Nebraska are all but sure to be out. However, after looking at this chart, it seems hard to put any team too far ahead of the others. Before I say anything else, let me add a little bit more info that doesn't show up on the chart.
Road & Neutral record / Best RPI road or neutral win
Memphis - 5-7 / 28 (@UAB)
Nebraska - 2-9 / 86 (N-Hofstra)
St. Mary's - 10-6 / 62 (@Gonzaga)
RPI
Memphis - 38
Nebraska - 79
St. Mary's - 47
Conference Finish / Conference RPI
Memphis - 10-6, 4th / 8th rated conf
Nebraska - 7-9, T7th / 3rd rated conf
St. Mary's - 11-3, T1st / 14th rated conf
Last 10 Games
Memphis - 6-4
Nebraska - 4-6
St. Mary's - 6-4
Ready for some insights? Actually, I want to pose some additional questions.
Why does Joe Lunardi have Nebraska 1 spot ahead of Memphis?
The chart above clearly gives an advantage to Memphis. Road/neutral wins give an advantage to Memphis. RPI gives a huge advantage to Memphis. Conference finish and last 10 games are probably a wash considering Nebraska has played the tougher schedule coming down the stretch. Lunardi claims to do his bracket "as of today" and not to project into the future. As of today, Memphis clearly has the better resume. How does he explain this one?
Why does Joe Lunardi have St. Mary's as a 10 seed and Nebraska & Memphis in his "Next 4 Out"?
St. Mary's is really this far ahead of the other 2? What exactly has St. Mary's done to stand out so far? Personally, I feel like I may be over-rating them by placing them as a 12 seed. I'm giving a lot of value to being regular season co-champs of the WCC as well as winning 10 games on road/neutral courts. If I'm struggling to give St. Mary's a 12 seed, how can Joe possibly have them as a 10?
Hopefully this helps you see why March_24_7 is THE place for team by team comparisons. One guy makes all the money. The other guy gets it right. The choice is yours.
When I read your 3 blind resumes, my first thought was that NONE of these 3 teams deserves a bid.
ReplyDeleteEven after finding out who they were and getting your additional information I still think that.
I am actually surprised that St. Mary's resume is so weak. It really is at best just slightly better than Missouri State (if at all). MO state has a little better rpi -41 and won a slightly stronger conference outright- 12 vs. 14. They both only have 3 top 100 wins, but St. Mary's best win is better than the Bears.
But really after seeing your table, they don't seem more deserving than the Bears to me.
I will also add that St. Mary's has a really really bad loss at 317. That loss is far worse than Mo States's worst loss of 139.
ReplyDeleteThe more I look at it the more I think that MOST is at least as deserving as St. Mary's.
Here's what I see when I compare St. Mary's and Missouri State. MSU's 3 top 100 wins include 2 vs Wichita State (NIT team) and 1 vs Indiana State (only in the tournament because of the auto-bid) The Bears don't have a single win over an atlarge worthy team. St. Mary's on the other hand has wins over St. John's (4 seed?) and Gonzaga (10 seed?) These are much more valuable than anything Missouri State has to offer.
ReplyDeleteOne more thing. St. Mary's only has 4 losses to teams outside the top 10 seeds of the NCAA Tournament. MSU has 7 such losses. I know St. Mary's has 1 really, really bad loss, but it is still just one game, and I think the positives that they have over the Bears outweigh the negatives.