Projections Through 3/1/11

12:15 PM - ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.  TODAY'S PROJECTIONS ARE NOW OFFICIAL.

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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (0 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)

Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:     11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10:        6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12:        5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC:           5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC:           5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10:        3 (Min: 3, Max: 3)
CUSA:          3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
A-10:          3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:      2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC:           2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon:       1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC:           1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC:           1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)

20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners With Atlarge Resumes + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy.  2 + 11 + 37 = 50

Fighting For #1 Seeds (8):
BYU, Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Wisconsin

Fighting For Protected Seeds (14):
Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, Villanova

Other Locks (11):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Kansas State, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, UNLV, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Xavier

Bubble (17 In, 13 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Washington - 90%
Florida State - 90%
Marquette - 90%
Georgia - 85%
Gonzaga - 80%
Illinois - 70%
Utah State - 70%
Michigan State - 65%
Butler - 60%
UAB - 50%
St. Mary’s - 50%
Boston College - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Richmond - 40%
Southern Mississippi - 35%
Michigan - 35%
Memphis - 30%

----- CUT LINE -----

Clemson - 30%
Colorado - 25%
Alabama - 20%
Missouri State - 20%
Washington State - 20%
Nebraska - 15%
Baylor - 10%
Colorado State - 10%
Marshall - 10%
Cleveland State - 10%
USC - 5%
Maryland - 5%
Minnesota - 5%

Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Harvard (19-5, RPI 44) - Without a conference tourney, they can't afford another loss
Belmont (27-4, RPI 50) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Princeton (21-5, RPI 51) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Wichita State (22-7, RPI 53) -  Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 90
Oakland (21-9, RPI 55) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
Central Florida (17-9, RPI 56) - Started 13-0, but are 4-9 since then
Oklahoma State (18-11, RPI 57) - Currently 6-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Penn State (15-13, RPI 59) - 13 losses including a home loss to Maine is too much to overcome
Drexel (20-9, RPI 62) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, RPI 64) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 50
California (16-13, RPI 65) - Not enough big wins to counter a 14th loss
Dayton (19-10, RPI 67) - 1-5 vs top 50 + Not enough opportunity left to raise their RPI
Miami FL (17-12, RPI 69) - Currently 5-9 in the ACC
UTEP (20-8, RPI 70) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best