In other games, Villanova lost to South Florida for its 5th consecutive loss. Villanova is still going to make the tournament, but trying to seed them is going to be really difficult. They could end up anywhere from an 8 to an 11 depending on just how much the committee wants to look at their most recent trend vs their season as a whole.
Princeton beat Penn 70-58 on their way to sharing the Ivy League Championship with Harvard. A 1 game playoff on Saturday will determine who goes dancing.
Today's action:
Connecticut vs. Georgetown - A battle of 2 teams fighting for a protected seed
Rutgers vs. St. John's - St. John's seed will largely be based upon their end of the year hot streak. A loss here would really damper their momentum and probably drop them out of protected seed status.
Oklahoma State vs. Nebraska - A must win for the Huskers if they want to stay on the bubble. OSU needs to win the whole tournament if they want to be dancing.
Iowa State vs. Colorado - Colorado also needs this win if they want any shot at an atlarge bid. They will probably need atleast a trip to the semifinals or they will be playing in the NIT.
Oklahoma vs. Baylor - This is the 3rd Big 12 game of the day involving a team that must win to keep its bubble hopes alive. Baylor, just like Nebraska and Colorado, needs this one and one more if they want to have a pleasant Selection Sunday.
South Florida vs. Cincinnati - The adjustment from a weak non-conf schedule to a tough Big East schedule hasn't phased the Bearcats at all. This game is all about NCAA seeding for them.
Houston vs. Marshall - Marshall is a long shot at this point and needs a trip to the CUSA Finals for any chance to be dancing.
Marquette vs. West Virginia - Marquette is probably safe after last night's win over Providence. Just to be sure, a win over the Mountaineers would make them very comfortable on Selection Sunday. West Virginia meanwhile is trying to make a run and move all the way up into a protected seed.
Texas Tech vs. Missouri - The Tigers were once thought to be a Big 12 contender. Now, they need a few wins away from Columbia in order to avoid the dreaded 8/9 seed in the Big Dance.
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Auto Bids (11 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big South - UNC Asheville
CAA - Old Dominion
Horizon - Butler
MAAC - St. Peter's
MVC - Indiana State
OVC - Morehead State
Southern - Wofford
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - Arkansas Little Rock
WCC - Gonzaga
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (18):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (Tourney is over and only Missouri State has a small chance at an atlarge bid)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
CUSA (UAB is probably in no matter what. Memphis and Marshall are still alive with slim hopes)
WAC (Utah State could use up an atlarge spot if needed)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 10 + 37 = 50
Fighting For #1 Seeds (5):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh
Fighting For Protected Seeds (16):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, Purdue, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin
Other Locks (15):
Butler, Cincinnati, Florida State, George Mason, Gonzaga, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Xavier
Bubble (14 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Marquette - 95%
UAB - 95%
Illinois - 90%
Utah State - 90%
Georgia - 75%
Richmond - 75%
Michigan - 70%
Michigan State - 60%
Boston College - 55%
St. Mary’s - 55%
Clemson - 50%
Alabama - 40%
Colorado - 35%
----- CUT LINE -----
Virginia Tech - 30%
Washington State - 25%
Memphis - 15%
USC - 15%
Baylor - 10%
Marshall - 10%
Missouri State - 10%
Colorado State - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Nebraska - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Cleveland State (24-8, RPI 41) - 0-5 vs the top 50
Princeton (23-6, RPI 49) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Virginia Commonwealth (23-11, RPI 50) - 3 losses outside top 150
Southern Mississippi (18-9, RPI 54) - Lost their last 3 regular season games and finished 5th in CUSA
Penn State (16-13, RPI 55) - 14 losses including a home loss to Maine would be too much to overcome
UTEP (22-8, RPI 60) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Wichita State (23-8, RPI 61) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 75Washington - 95%
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