There were a handful of games last night, but no bubble teams fell below or rose above the cut... just a handful of teams whose percentage changed a bit.
Stay tuned tonight for a Full Bracket update with all 68 teams seeded. Then, starting Saturday, we will begin to see some auto-bids handed out.
Edit: Since originally making this post, I have decided to tweak Colorado and Nebraska's chances. Nebraska has been horrible on the road, and I think they will lose at Colorado tomorrow night. Originally, I had given this game closer to a 60/40 chance of a Colorado victory, but now, I'm going to make it 80/20. This means Colorado's chances of an atlarge bid have gone up and Nebraska's have gone down. Both are still on the wrong side of the bubble at the moment and will need to do some damage in the Big 12 Tournament.
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Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (4):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
CUSA (1 in as of today, 2 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Pac 10: 4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 51 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 4 + 10 + 37 = 51
Fighting For #1 Seeds (7):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Wisconsin
Fighting For Protected Seeds (14):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Vanderbilt, Villanova
Other Locks (13):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Kansas State, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNLV, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (17 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Georgia - 90%
Gonzaga - 90%
Florida State - 85%
UAB - 85%
Marquette - 80%
Utah State - 80%
Illinois - 75%
Michigan State - 75%
Butler - 65%
Boston College - 55%
St. Mary’s - 55%
Richmond - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Michigan - 45%
Washington State - 40%
Alabama - 30%
Missouri State - 25%
----- CUT LINE -----
Clemson - 25%
Baylor - 20%
Colorado State - 20%
Colorado - 15%
Nebraska - 15%
Cleveland State - 10%
Memphis - 10%
Marshall - 5%
Southern Mississippi - 5%
USC - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Harvard (19-5, RPI 43) - Without a conference tourney, they can't afford another loss
Princeton (21-5, RPI 49) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Wichita State (22-7, RPI 50) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 90
Central Florida (18-9, RPI 53) - Started 13-0, but are 5-9 since then
Oakland (21-9, RPI 54) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
Belmont (28-4, RPI 55) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Oklahoma State (18-11, RPI 56) - Currently 6-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Penn State (15-13, RPI 59) - 13 losses including a home loss to Maine is too much to overcome
Drexel (20-9, RPI 61) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
UTEP (21-8, RPI 62) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, RPI 65) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 50
Minnesota (17-12, RPI 66) - Has now lost 8 of their last 9 games
California (16-13, RPI 67) - Not enough big wins to counter a 14th loss
Miami FL (18-12, RPI 69) - Currently 5-9 in the ACC
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