Notre Dame made a big claim last night for a #1 seed by pounding Cincinnati 89-51. With Pittsburgh out of the Big East Tournament, Notre Dame's path to a championship will involve Louisville today and then the winner of Syracuse/UConn tomorrow. They are far from a lock for a #1 seed at this point, but last night's win was so impressive that I'm moving them ahead of Duke (and Pittsburgh for that matter) in my rankings.
The number of teams on the bubble is starting to diminish, but that doesn't mean that it is getting any easier to pick a field of 68. UAB was upset yesterday by East Carolina. A win would have secured their bid, but now they are looking like they could go either way. As much as any team in the country, they are now forced to root against all remaining "bid stealers".
Edit: Typos are fun. Michigan State should be 85%, not 95%. The change has been made below.
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Auto Bids (13 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Northern Colorado
Big South - UNC Asheville
CAA - Old Dominion
Horizon - Butler
MAAC - St. Peter's
MVC - Indiana State
Northeast - Long Island
OVC - Morehead State
Southern - Wofford
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - Arkansas Little Rock
WCC - Gonzaga
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (18):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (Tourney is over and only Missouri State has a small chance at an atlarge bid)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (1):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
WAC (Utah State could use up an atlarge spot if needed)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 6, Max: 6)
SEC: 5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 2)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
20 One-Bid Leagues + 11 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
2 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 2 + 11 + 37 = 50
Fighting For #1 Seeds (5):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh
Fighting For Protected Seeds (15):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, Purdue, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
Other Locks (19):
Butler, Cincinnati, Colorado, Florida State, George Mason, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Marquette, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, UCLA, UNLV, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (11 In, 8 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Illinois - 95%
Utah State - 95%
Georgia - 85%
Michigan State - 85%
Richmond - 85%
Michigan - 80%
Boston College - 60%
St. Mary’s - 55%
Clemson - 50%
Memphis - 50%
UAB - 50%
----- CUT LINE -----
Alabama - 40%
Virginia Tech - 40%
USC - 35%
Missouri State - 15%
Harvard - 5%
New Mexico - 5%
UTEP - 5%
Washington State - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Cleveland State (24-8, RPI 41) - 0-5 vs the top 50
Princeton (23-6, RPI 48) - 2 terrible losses and only 1-3 vs the top 50
Colorado State (18-12, RPI 50) - 1-7 vs the top 50
Virginia Commonwealth (23-11, RPI 51) - 3 losses outside top 150
Penn State (16-13, RPI 54) - 14 losses including a home loss to Maine would be too much to overcome
Marshall (20-11, RPI 55) - An early exit in the CUSA Tourney sealed their fate
Wichita State (23-8, RPI 60) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 75
Southern Mississippi (19-10, RPI 62) - Lost their last 4 games and finished 5th in CUSA
Oklahoma State (19-13, RPI 63) - Finished 7-11 in Big 12 games
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