Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes. I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid. If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.
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This year, it seems like Maryland is trying to take all the fun out of basketball. They lose to really good teams, and they beat everyone else. They have been about as consistent as any team in America in that regard. 1-11 against the top 53 in the RPI, 17-0 against everyone else.
Maryland is quite the long shot this year when it comes to earning an atlarge bid. With an RPI of 83 and only 1 top 50 win, they aren't even worth considering right now. The reason I am even paying any attention to them is because of their potential. Their single digit losses include Pittsburgh, Illinois, Temple, Boston College (x2), Duke, Villanova, & Virginia Tech. Double digit wins include Penn State and Florida State. With potential for some big wins in the ACC tourney, Maryland's resume could improve dramatically if they can get over the hump and finally beat some quality teams.
Remaining schedule:
@Miami FL
Virginia
Estimated RPI:
72 - Finish 2-0
87 - Finish 1-1
What they need:
Maryland absolutely has to win both of their remaining games to have any shot at an atlarge bid. I would give them about a 50% chance of pulling this off. If they do, they will probably face Wake Forest to open up the ACC Tournament. Unfortunately for them, this game will do absolutely nothing other than move them on to the next round. They would be such a huge favorite, I will keep their odds at winning out through this game at 50%. Next up would likely be Virginia Tech. The Terps are 0-2 vs the Hokies so far this year. I would give Maryland a 40% chance of winning this 3rd matchup with Virginia Tech, meaning they have a 20% chance of winning out from today until the semi-finals of the ACC Tournament. Where would that put them? Maryland would be 22-11 and have won 6 of their last 7 games. Unfortunately, Virginia Tech is not a signature win, so Maryland would still be on the wrong side of the bubble with an RPI likely now in the 60s.
Moving on, everything points to a matchup with Duke or North Carolina in the semis, and then the other team waiting in the finals. Could a win in the semis and then a close loss in the finals be enough? Winning out until the championship game would put Maryland at 23-12. Their RPI would likely finish in the mid-40s... much more respectable for a bubble team. They would have absolutely no bad losses and would be one of the hottest teams in the country. I think the committee would have a hard time leaving them out at that point as long as their loss in the finals was competitive.
So what are their chances of pulling this off? We’ve already given them a 20% chance at winning out until the semis. In that round, they would probably have about a 1 in 4 chance of upsetting Duke or Carolina, so that drops them to 5% overall. Based on their record so far of playing competitively with good teams, I think they would likely put up a solid effort in the finals, and although I don’t think they would win, I think they would have done enough to earn an atlarge bid.
One final thought. What if Duke or North Carolina get upset before facing Maryland? Well, this would definitely be a hit for Maryland’s atlarge chances as they need a big win. However, this would give them a sliver of hope of winning the whole ACC tourney, something I don’t think they can do if they have to go through both of the ACC’s powerhouses.
Summary:
Maryland will need to win their next 5 games and then lose to Duke or North Carolina in the ACC final in order to receive an atlarge bid.
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