Team of the Day - Richmond - 40% Chance

Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes.  I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid.  If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.

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Richmond is the forgotten team in this year's A10.  Everyone knows about Xavier and Temple.  Duquesne started conference play 8-0 and received a bunch of attention until their recent collapse.  Richmond has spent most of the year playing consistent basketball and avoiding the spotlight.  They haven't won more than 4 games in a row all year, but they haven't lost back-to-back games either.  They are currently 22-7 overall and 11-3 in the A10.  With an RPI of 61, they are about as bubbly as they come.

Richmond's hopes largely hang on the value of their non-conf win over Purdue.  It is their only top 50 win so far, and 1 of only 3 top 100 wins.  With a loss to RPI 181 Georgia Tech and an RPI that is less than impressive, Richmond needs Purdue to finish strong so that the win back in November looks as good as possible.

Remaining schedule:
@St. Joseph's (8-20, RPI 188)
Duquesne (16-10, RPI 100)

Estimated RPI:
58 - Finish 2-0
70 - Finish 1-1
81 - Finish 0-2

What they need:
Richmond can't afford a loss to teams like St. Joseph's or Duquesne at this point, so a 2-0 finish is imperative if they want a shot at an atlarge bid.  They should have about a 60% chance at sweeping these 2 remaining games.  At that point, they would be 24-7 with an RPI in the high 50s.  With a little bit of success in the A10 Tournament, they should receive an atlarge bid.

Assuming Richmond finishes 3rd in the A10, they will face the winner of the 6/11 game.  This would likely be RPI 152 George Washington, who Richmond swept in the regular season.  A win here is more about avoiding a bad loss than adding a quality win.  Fortunately for Richmond, that may be all they need.  A trip to the semis would likely result in a matchup with Temple, where a loss would result in an RPI in the mid-50s.  They would still be sweating it out on Selection Sunday, but the lack of bad losses this calender year along with the key quality win over Purdue would probably be enough to warrant a bid.  I will give Richmond a 50% chance of winning out until the semis and a 70% chance of receiving an atlarge bid at that point.  That puts Richmond at a 35% chance of receiving an atlarge bid.  Finally, add in a small chance that their next loss is no sooner than the A10 finals, and I come up with a 40% chance that Richmond is atlarge worthy on Selection Sunday.

Summary:
Richmond needs to win their next 3 games to have a chance at an atlarge bid.  4 wins in a row would remove any doubt on Selection Sunday.