Wednesday's Games
Two more bids were handed out last night as Long Island won the Northeast Conference Tournament and Northern Colorado won the Big Sky Tournament for its first ever NCAA appearance.
UConn dumped Georgetown... hard. The Huskies have been one of the streakiest teams in the country. Could they win the Big East tournament and turn back into national championship contenders?
Nebraska fell to Oklahoma State in the 1st Round of the Big 12 Tournament. Did you hear their bubble pop? I did.
Colorado narrowly survived against Iowa State in a game that would have surely burst their bubble had they lost. They probably have about a 30-40% shot at receiving an atlarge bid if they lose today to Kansas State. If they can beat the Wildcats for the 3rd time this season, they will be securely in the field of 68.
As if Baylor needed anything else to go wrong, Perry Jones was declared ineligible by the NCAA just before the start of the game against Oklahoma last night. All reports seem to indicate that this was a very controversial move, so it will be interesting to see what develops. Meanwhile, Baylor went out and laid a complete egg, losing by 17 to a poor Sooners team. Baylor is now NIT bound.
Cincinnati racked up win #24 last night against South Florida in the Big East Tournament. Although they are a long shot, winning the Big East Tournament could possibly move them up into a protected seed. More likely, they will lose tomorrow or Friday and end up with a 6 or 7 seed.
Marshall beat Houston to stay alive for an atlarge bid. They now need to beat both UTEP and Tulsa in order to remain in the discussion.
Marquette won its second Big East Tournament game with a victory over West Virginia. The Big East is now a lock for 11 teams.
Missouri squeaked out a win against Texas Tech and is headed for a matchup with Texas A&M today. They need to win again today to get out of the 8/9 game.
Today's Games
Kansas opens up today's Big 12 Tournament play with a matchup against Oklahoma State. Kansas is obviously a heavy favorite, and even if they lose, they are all but a lock for a #1 seed. If the Cowboys pull off the upset, they will be the big story of the Big 12 Tournament. Although they are not on anyone's radar at the moment, wins over Nebraska and Kansas would at least make most of us give Oklahoma a second look. At that point, their RPI would move into the top 50 as they would meet the winner of Kansas State / Colorado. They would probably need a trip to the finals in order to reach the bubble, but in a year where it seems like nobody is stealing any bids, Oklahoma State is a team to watch that just might surprise us all.
Connecticut vs Pittsburgh is all about seeding. Pitt can lock up a #1 seed with a win. UConn can lock up a protected seed. Regardless, this may not be the last meeting between these two teams this year.
San Diego State gets to start Mountain West Tournament play with a game against Utah. A win would keep them alive for a 2 seed, while an upset loss would drop them to a 3, if not all the way to a 4.
Notre Dame needs to beat Cincinnati in order to stay in the hunt for a #1 seed. The Bearcats, meanwhile, could really start to look at an impressive seed if they could pull off the upset today.
St. John's vs. Syracuse might be one of the most evenly matched games of the day. This one is all about locking up a protected seed. The winner of this game will be guaranteed no worse than a 4 seed, and the loser might still be able to be in that same range.
BYU sets out to make a statement about just how good they are now without Jeffries. A loss today to TCU would drop BYU as low as a 5 seed.
Texas is similar to BYU in that they need to stop the bleeding. A loss to OU today would be exactly the opposite of what the doctor ordered and could drop the longhorns to a 4 seed.
Marquette looks to improve on their seed now that they are safely in the tournament. A win today over Louisville might knock the Cardinals out of a protected seed while pulling Marquette even farther from the bubble.
Arizona looks to continue its fight for a protected seed with a matchup against Oregon State to start Pac 10 Tournament play.
Texas A&M and Missouri clash today. The loser may fall into 5th in the Big 12 pecking order.
Colorado is right on the bubble at the moment. A win today vs. Kansas State would lock up their bid. Meanwhile, Kansas State is trying to stay on a roll and see just how high of a seed they can get.
Vanderbilt opens SEC Tournament play against LSU. A loss could potentially drop them into the dreaded 8/9 game, so they have plenty to play for.
UAB finished strong to win the CUSA regular season title outright. A win today over East Carolina should be all they need to secure their atlarge bid (if needed).
Georgia has gone all year without a bad loss. If they can get by Auburn today, they will have maintained that statistic heading into a potential play-in game vs Alabama. While Georgia might still get in despite a loss to the Crimson Tide, a loss today and Georgia is NIT bound.
If Boston College wants to remain on the bubble, they will take care of lowly Wake Forest today. Even then, they will likely need at least one more win before they can feel very good on Seleciton Sunday.
Memphis is likely to be one of the hardest calls for the Committee. A loss to Southern Miss today would make things easier as the Tigers would most likely be left out of the Big Dance. With a win today, Memphis is squarely on the bubble and would have a chance to secure their bid with a win tomorrow, most likely against UAB, a team Memphis swept in the regular season.
USC has made a big push in recent weeks to get back on the bubble. A loss today to Cal and the push was all for nothing but NIT seeding.
Michigan State seems to have been on the bubble ever since the calender flipped to 2011. A win today over Iowa is essential if they want to stay there. A win tomorrow may also be necessary if they want to feel good about their chances of returning to the Big Dance.
New Mexico and Colorado State battle for a chance to face BYU in the semis of the Mountain West Tournament. Both teams' atlarge chances are very minimal, so it make take winning the whole tournament in order to avoid the NIT.
Could Tennessee be on the bubble if their 14th loss of the year comes at the hands of Arkansas? Probably not, but they don't want to find out.
Penn State's slim atlarge hopes rely on reaching the finals of the Big Ten Tournament. Their road starts today with an Indiana team that only won 3 games in conference this year.
Virginia Tech is on pretty much everyone's bubble at the moment. A loss today to Georgia Tech and nearly everyone will agree that their bubble has popped.
If you want to stay up late to watch a good game, check out the Washington vs Washington State matchup. Washington should be in regardless of today's outcome. Washington State is not so fortunate, and needs a win today (and maybe another tomorrow) if they want to go dancing.
UNLV has been the forgotten team in the Mountain West this year. A win over Air Force today would probably set up a 3rd opportunity for the Rebels to finally take down San Diego State and establish that they are going to be a tough out come the Big Dance.
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Auto Bids (13 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Northern Colorado
Big South - UNC Asheville
CAA - Old Dominion
Horizon - Butler
MAAC - St. Peter's
MVC - Indiana State
Northeast - Long Island
OVC - Morehead State
Southern - Wofford
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - Arkansas Little Rock
WCC - Gonzaga
Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (18):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC
Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (Tourney is over and only Missouri State has a small chance at an atlarge bid)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (2):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
CUSA (UAB is probably in no matter what. Memphis and Marshall are still alive with slim hopes)
WAC (Utah State could use up an atlarge spot if needed)
Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East: 11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC: 6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC: 5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10: 3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial: 2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC: 2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC: 1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68
The top 50 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy. 3 + 10 + 37 = 50
Fighting For #1 Seeds (5):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh
Fighting For Protected Seeds (14):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, Purdue, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Wisconsin
Other Locks (18):
Butler, Cincinnati, Florida State, George Mason, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Marquette, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Villanova, West Virginia, Xavier
Bubble (13 In, 9 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
UAB - 95%
Washington - 95%
Illinois - 90%
Utah State - 90%
Georgia - 75%
Richmond - 75%
Michigan - 70%
Michigan State - 60%
Boston College - 55%
Colorado - 55%
St. Mary’s - 55%
Clemson - 50%
Alabama - 40%
----- CUT LINE -----
Virginia Tech - 30%
Washington State - 25%
Marshall - 15%
Memphis - 15%
Missouri State - 15%
USC - 15%
California - 5%
Colorado State - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Cleveland State (24-8, RPI 42) - 0-5 vs the top 50
Princeton (23-6, RPI 49) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Virginia Commonwealth (23-11, RPI 50) - 3 losses outside top 150
Southern Mississippi (19-9, RPI 54) - Lost their last 3 regular season games and finished 5th in CUSA
Penn State (16-13, RPI 56) - 14 losses including a home loss to Maine would be too much to overcome
Wichita State (23-8, RPI 61) - Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 75
UTEP (22-8, RPI 62) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
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