Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes. I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid. If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.
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Memphis... yet another CUSA bubble team. Like I mentioned with UAB, CUSA is just full of good, but not great teams that are probably on the outside looking in. Memphis fits this description perfectly. They are 22-9 overall, 10-6 in CUSA, and 38th in the RPI. With 3 losses in their last 5 games, they need to start playing better if they want to impress the Committee.
Overall, Memphis' numbers are deceptive. They have 9 wins vs the top 100, but 6 of those teams are likely NIT bound, and the other 3 are on the bubble. They only have 8 losses vs a top 60 SOS, but 6 are to NIT or worse teams, including 2 outside the top 150.
Likely Schedule in CUSA Tournament:
1st Round: Southern Miss (18-9, RPI 52)
2nd Round: UAB (22-7, RPI 28)
Championship: Tulsa/UTEP
Estimated RPI:
21 - Win the Tournament
30 - Championship Game Appearance
39 - Semi-Finals Appearance
51 - Quarter-Finals Loss
What they need:
After finishing the regular season poorly, Memphis is NIT bound if they lose in the quarterfinals of the CUSA Tournament. Obviously, winning the tournament would earn them an auto-bid, so there are two possible scenarios that would leave Memphis on the bubble. Fortunately for them, they are a combined 4-0 against their first 2 likely opponents. (Southern Miss & UAB)
If Memphis makes it to the semifinals and loses to UAB, they will have earned their 10th win against the top 100. I know that I already spend some time talking about why their number of top 100 wins is misleading, but something tells me that 10 top 100 wins will be a hard statistic for the Committee to ignore. With an RPI of 39, Memphis wouldn't be a lock, but they would have a decent shot on Selection Sunday, assuming there aren't too many "bid stealers" around the country. The biggest problem for Memphis would be their poor finish toward the end of the year. A 1-1 performance in the CUSA Tournament would still leave them 7-6 in their final 13 games.
A visit to the championship game and a competitive loss to Tulsa or UTEP would give Memphis an almost guaranteed atlarge bid. They would have erased their poor regular season finish, would have 11 top 50 wins, and with an RPI of 30, just wouldn't have many weaknesses on their overall profile. Big wins might be their weakest point, but they would have beaten bubble hopeful UAB for a 3rd time when they took them out in the semis. If Memphis makes it to the championship game and then does get blown out, who knows what the Committee would do with them. Their finish down the stretch could be considered good or bad, depending on how you look at it, and no team wants to leave the floor for the last time as a blowout loser.
As for chances of all of this happening, given Memphis' season sweep over UAB and Southern Miss, I think they have a reasonable chance at winning a couple games. I will say 60% chance at making the semis and 25% chance of making the finals. Memphis' atlarge hopes could take a shot if Tulane upsets Southern Miss or the 8/9 winner takes out UAB in the quarterfinals. Memphis needs quality wins to show that they have gotten their season back on track. Overall, I'll give Memphis a 15% chance of being atlarge worthy on Selection Sunday.
Summary:
Memphis needs 1 more win to be on the bubble and 2 more wins to be close to locking up an atlarge bid.
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