Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes. I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid. If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.
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Conference USA currently has 7 teams in the top 100, yet there isn't a single NCAA lock in the group. In fact, many bracketologists, including ESPN's Joe Lunardi, think it will be a 1-bid league. Has any conference ever sent 6 teams to the NIT? If not, this year could be the first.
Amidst the dogpile at the top, UAB has managed to slip away from the pack, and at 11-4, they have clenched the regular season title outright. They are 21-7 overall with an RPI of 28. Good wins out of conference are few and far between, with home victories over Kent State and Virginia Commonwealth topping the list. However, with a very solid RPI and only 1 loss outside the top 100, UAB looks to be in very good shape for an atlarge bid.
Remaining Schedule:
East Carolina (13-13, RPI 115)
Estimated RPI:
29 - Finish 1-0
34 - Finish 0-1
What they need:
Unlike many bubble teams trying to get in despite their RPI, UAB's RPI is probably their best selling point. They have just 1 top 50 win, but they have 7 more wins vs 51-100. Those wins may not impress the Committee on an individual basis, but as a whole, they really add up. If UAB can avoid a bad loss to East Carolina tomorrow, they are probably in the field of 68. At that point, they would have won the CUSA regular season by 2 games. They would also be guaranteed a final RPI in the mid-30s at worst.
Assuming UAB beats East Carolina, one win in the CUSA Tourney should be more than enough to lock up their bid. As a #1 seed, they will play the winner of the 8/9 game. This will be a team outside the top 100, and UAB should be a heavy favorite. A loss here wouldn't be the end of UAB's hopes, although it would give them a little concern on Selection Sunday. I will give UAB a 75% chance of making it to the semis with both a win on Senior Night and a win in the CUSA Quarterfinals.
If UAB loses to East Carolina on Senior Night, a win in the first round of the CUSA Tourney is imperative. To be safe, 2 wins would help.
Summary:
UAB needs 1 more win to feel good about their chances of being selected on Selection Sunday. 2 more wins and they are a lock.
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