Each day until Selection Sunday, I will focus on one team's bubble hopes. I will show in detail what I think they need to do in order to receive an atlarge bid. If you have recommendations for upcoming teams, please send me an email at March247@gmail.com or simply comment on one of my Team of the Day posts.
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Missouri State has been here before. Waiting. Anxious. Hoping.
The Bears have the the honor (if you want to call it that) of holding 3 of the 5 best RPIs ever to miss out on the NCAA tournament. They were last invited in 1999, where they made it all the way to the Sweet 16. Since then, they have had only heartbreak. In 2000, they were RPI 34, but got left out. In 2006, they were on the receiving end of the all time biggest snub. Their RPI was 21, but they were left out once again. In 2007, the Bears thought that maybe the 3rd time was the charm. Instead, it was more of the same. They finished 36th in the RPI, and once again got sent to the NIT.
This year, Missouri State has set themselves up for another nailbiter on Selection Sunday. Their RPI currently sits at 40 as they enter the MVC Tournament as the #1 seed for the first time ever. At 23-7 overall and 15-3 in the MVC (the 14th rated conference this year), it seems like all the numbers point to being on the bubble. MSU is only 2-4 vs the top 100, but they own 2 more victories over teams in the 101-110 range.
Missouri State's hopes for an atlarge bid are largely due to the expanded field of 68. Without many quality wins, the Bears have to hope that a championship game appearance in the MVC Tournament and a 25 win season will impress the committee. Obviously, they could do themselves a favor and earn the automatic bid, but with a potential schedule including both Creighton and Wichita State, it won't be an easy task.
Likely Schedule in MVC Tournament:
1st Round: Southern Illinois (12-18, RPI 211)
2nd Round: Creighton (18-13, RPI 133)
Championship: Wichita State (22-7, RPI 50)
Estimated RPI:
24 - Win the Tournament
34 - Championship Game Appearance
44 - Semi-Finals Appearance
What they need:
Missouri State needs to make it to the championship game if they want a shot at an atlarge bid. With their lack of quality wins, an RPI in the 40s just won't cut it. At that point, there are 2 possibilities. If Wichita State is their opponent, they may be able to handle a loss. A loss to anyone else and an NIT invite will be almost certain. I will give them a 85% chance on making the semis, a 50% chance of making the finals, and then a 40% chance that they meet WSU in the finals. At that point, I think it is 50/50 whether they win. Throw in a small chance that they lose but still get an invite, and you have a 25% chance of being atlarge worthy come Selection Sunday. Unfortunately for the Bears, if they lose in the MVC Tournament, they will likely face the same sad outcome that they have encountered many times in recent years.
Summary:
Missouri State better win the MVC Tournament or else they will be spending another axious Selection Sunday.
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