Projections Through 3/6/11

This weekend started the process of handing out automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament.  Saturday saw 3 tournament finals, with Belmont, UNC Asheville, and Morehead State all punching their tickets for the Big Dance.  Sunday brought an interesting twist with Indiana State winning the MVC Tournament over Missouri State.  As I've mentioned before, Missouri State has been one of the most snubbed teams in the last decade, so it will be interesting to see how things play out this year.  Will they once again face disappointment?  I have to admit that it doesn't look good for the Bears at this point, and they need to be rooting hard against any "bid stealers" over the next week.

I had a small change of heart about Harvard after their win over Princeton on Saturday.  They are in an interesting situation where they may have clenched the Ivy League auto-bid, but they won't know until Tuesday.  That is because there is no conference tournament in the Ivy League, and Princeton has a chance to tie for the regular season title with a win at Penn on Tuesday night.  In that case, the tie breaker is a one game playoff, meaning Harvard may or may not play Princeton one more time.  If they do have a playoff and they lose, I think it is doubtful that Harvard would receive an atlarge bid, but I am going to leave that possibility open and give it a 5% chance of happening.

Tonight I will post another Full Bracket update.  I will post projections each day this week until my final Full Bracket on Selection Sunday.

Bubbles that burst this weekend:
Cleveland State
Southern Mississippi

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Auto Bids (4 of 31 claimed):
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big South - UNC Asheville
MVC - Indiana State
OVC - Morehead State

Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (1):
MVC (Tourney is over and only Missouri State has a small chance at an atlarge bid)
Possible 1 Bid Leagues (3):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
CUSA (UAB is probably in no matter what.  Memphis and Marshall are still alive with slim hopes)
Horizon (Butler could use up an atlarge spot if needed)
WAC (Utah State could use up an atlarge spot if needed)

Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:     11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10:        6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12:        6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC:           6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC:           5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Pac 10:        3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10:          3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:      2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC:           2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA:          1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon:       1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC:           1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC:           1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)

21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 50 teams will get in:
3 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy.  3 + 10 + 37 = 50

Fighting For #1 Seeds (5):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh

Fighting For Protected Seeds (17):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, Purdue, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Villanova, West Virginia, Wisconsin

Other Locks (12):
Cincinnati, Florida State, George Mason, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Xavier

Bubble (16 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Gonzaga - 95%
UAB - 95%
Washington - 95%
Butler - 90%
Illinois - 90%
Utah State - 90%
Georgia - 75%
Richmond - 75%
St. Mary’s - 75%
Marquette - 70%
Michigan - 70%
Michigan State - 60%
Boston College - 55%
Clemson - 50%
Alabama - 40%
Colorado - 35%

----- CUT LINE -----

Virginia Tech - 30%
Washington State - 25%
Memphis - 15%
USC - 15%
Baylor - 10%
Marshall - 10%
Missouri State - 10%
Colorado State - 5%
Harvard - 5%
Nebraska - 5%

Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Cleveland State (24-8, RPI 41) - 0-5 vs the top 50
Virginia Commonwealth (23-10, RPI 48) - 3 losses outside top 150
Princeton (22-6, RPI 52) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Southern Mississippi (18-9, RPI 53) - Lost their last 3 regular season games and finished 5th in CUSA
Penn State (16-13, RPI 54) - 14 losses including a home loss to Maine would be too much to overcome
Oakland (22-9, RPI 57) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
UTEP (22-8, RPI 59) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Wichita State (23-8, RPI 60) -  Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 75