Projections Through 3/4/11

Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sunbelt, SWAC

Possible 1 Bid Leagues (4):
Keep an eye on these conference tourneys!
CUSA (1 in as of today, 3 bubbles yet to burst)
MVC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)
Horizon (1 in as of today, 1 bubble yet to burst)
WAC (1 in as of today, 0 bubbles yet to burst)

Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:
Big East:     11 (Min: 10, Max: 11)
Big 10:        6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
SEC:           6 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
Big 12:        5 (Min: 5, Max: 6)
ACC:           5 (Min: 4, Max: 5)
Pac 10:        4 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
Mountain West: 3 (Min: 3, Max: 4)
A-10:          3 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
Colonial:      2 (Min: 2, Max: 3)
WCC:           2 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
CUSA:          1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
Horizon:       1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
WAC:           1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)
MVC:           1 (Min: 1, Max: 2)

21 One-Bid Leagues + 10 Tournament Winners From Multi-Bid Leagues + 37 Atlarge Bids = 68

The top 51 teams will get in:
4 "One-Bid League" leaders are also atlarge worthy.  4 + 10 + 37 = 51

Fighting For #1 Seeds (7):
Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Wisconsin

Fighting For Protected Seeds (14):
Arizona, BYU, Connecticut, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, San Diego State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Texas, Vanderbilt, Villanova

Other Locks (13):
Cincinnati, George Mason, Kansas State, Missouri, Old Dominion, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNLV, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier

Bubble (17 In, 10 Out):
Chance of finishing with atlarge worthy resume listed as %
Georgia - 90%
Gonzaga - 90%
Florida State - 85%
UAB - 85%
Marquette - 80%
Utah State - 80%
Illinois - 75%
Michigan State - 75%
Butler - 65%
Boston College - 55%
St. Mary’s - 55%
Richmond - 50%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Michigan - 45%
Washington State - 40%
Alabama - 30%
Missouri State - 30%

----- CUT LINE -----

Clemson - 25%
Baylor - 20%
Colorado State - 20%
Colorado - 15%
Nebraska - 15%
Cleveland State - 15%
Memphis - 10%
Marshall - 5%
Southern Mississippi - 5%
USC - 5%

Top RPI teams whose bubble has already POPPED:
Harvard (20-5, RPI 43) - A loss would drop them to the mid-50s of the RPI
Wichita State (23-7, RPI 50) -  Great record vs bad teams, but 0 wins vs the RPI top 80
Belmont (29-4, RPI 51) - Will finish with 0 top 100 wins
Central Florida (18-9, RPI 52) - Started 13-0, but are 5-9 since then
Princeton (22-5, RPI 53) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them
Oakland (21-9, RPI 54) - There aren't any quality teams to lose to in the Summit League Tournament
Oklahoma State (18-11, RPI 56) - Currently 6-9 in the Big 12 with mostly double digit losses
Penn State (15-13, RPI 59) - 14 losses including a home loss to Maine would be too much to overcome
UTEP (21-8, RPI 61) - With another loss, RPI will finish in the 60s at best
Virginia Commonwealth (21-10, RPI 64) - Too many losses down the stretch + RPI will finish outside top 50
Minnesota (17-12, RPI 65) - Has now lost 8 of their last 9 games
California (16-13, RPI 68) - Not enough big wins to counter a 14th loss
Miami FL (18-12, RPI 69) - Currently 6-9 in the ACC
Drexel (21-9, RPI 70) - 2 terrible losses and not nearly enough to make up for them