A Quick Note About The "Cut Line"

If you are mathematically inclined, you may have noticed that my percentages don't appear to add up.  In other words, the combined chances of all the teams listed above the cut makes it likely that 5 or 6 of them won't end up with atlarge bids.  On the other hand, the combined chances of all the teams listed below the cut makes it likely that only 1 or 2 of them will receive atlarge bids.  So, what gives?  Are my percentages generally too low?  Let me explain...

My cut line is based on absolutely no "bid stealing" in conference tournaments.  This means I'm not planning on Maryland winning the ACC tourney.  In reality, there is a good chance that a few bids are "stolen" this way, meaning the cut would effectively move up one spot.  By Selection Sunday, we may see the cut move up 1-4 spots, meaning even if my bubble order stays the same, some of the teams above the cut right now might not finish above the cut.

There is also one more reason for my method.  Let's use Utah State as an example.  They probably have a 90% chance of winning out and earning the auto-bid from the WAC.  Bubble teams will be strongly rooting for this to happen.  Now imagine that the WAC didn't get an auto bid.  What would Utah State's chances be of receiving an atlarge bid then?  I think they would be good, maybe around 80-85%, but there would be no guarantee that they would receive an atlarge bid.  Now, back to reality.  My point is that Utah State might possibly win the auto-bid without an "atlarge worthy resume".  In that case, they would be like all the other "lowly" 1 bid leagues where somebody has to go dancing whether "worthy" or not.  That is why I have them at only 80%.  My % is based on their chances of being atlarge worthy, not on their chances of going dancing.  Sometimes we forget that those are 2 different things.